Here’s everything you need to know about the NFL for Jan. 16
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I thought we were only going to talk about the NFL playoffs in today’s newsletter, but then Jonathan Jones had to go and drop a bombshell this morning. Our CBS Sports NFL insider has reported that Bill Belichick still hasn’t signed his contract at North Carolina, so obviously we’ll be taking a look at what that means.
We’ll also be ranking every quarterback left in the playoffs and we’ll be taking a look at what the Texans need to do to pull off an upset with the understanding that even if they do everything we point out, they still might not win.
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the grocery store. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Bill Belichick’s contract at North Carolina still hasn’t been signed yet
It look like there’s still a chance that Bill Belichick could coach in the NFL this year, and that’s because his contract at North Carolina STILL hasn’t been signed yet, CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported on Thursday.
Here’s what you need to know:
- Belichick signed a term sheet before his Dec. 11 hiring. It’s been over a month since Belichick was officially hired to be the head coach at North Carolina, but he still hasn’t signed his contract with the school. Belichick did sign a “term sheet,” but that term sheet specifically noted that the “proposal of terms and conditions shall NOT constitute a binding agreement.”
- Why this matters. Belichick has a $10 million buyout in his contract that drops to $1 million on June 1. With such a high buyout over the next six months, that made it seem like Belichick would likely stick at UNC for at least one season. However, since his contract isn’t signed, he might not have to pay the $10 million buyout, which creates an interesting situation that would potentially make it much easier for him to jump to the NFL.
- Belichick could be eyeing an NFL job. When Belichick took the UNC job, there were only three NFL coaching jobs open — the Jets, Bears and Saints — and none of them would have been particularly attractive to a 73-year-old who needs to win now. However, four other jobs have come open since then with the Patriots, Jaguars, Raiders and Cowboys all looking for a coach now. Belichick obviously wouldn’t return to the Patriots since they’ve already hired Mike Vrabel (and for other reasons), but the other three jobs could be intriguing. Belichick has ties to Jerry Jones (Cowboys) and Tom Brady (Raiders) while the Jaguars have a roster that could immediately compete for a division title with the right coach in the AFC South. If one of those three teams give him a call, it would be interesting to see if he’d take the interview.
Jonathan Jones broke this story and you can read the full details here.
2. Ranking the eight remaining quarterbacks
As we head into the divisional round, there are only eight quarterbacks still standing, and out of that group, only two of them have already won a Super Bowl ring (Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford).
That experience definitely helps, but does that make them the top two quarterbacks who will be playing this weekend? Cody Benjamin decided to rank all eight quarterbacks who will be playing in the divisional round, and although Mahomes took the top spot, Stafford is definitely not in the second spot. Let’s take a look at Cody’s ranking:
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Josh Allen
4. Jared Goff
5. Matthew Stafford
6. Jayden Daniels
7. Jalen Hurts
8. C.J. Stroud
One interesting thing about this list is that the top three quarterbacks are all from the AFC, which means two of them definitely won’t be going to the Super Bowl, and all three of them could miss if the Texans can make a surprise run to New Orleans.
If you want to see how Cody came up with his rankings, you can check out his full story by clicking here. If you want to argue with Cody about his list on Twitter, then feel free to click here.
3. Divisional viewing guide: Ranking the four playoff games from most watchable to least watchable
We’ve already ranked every quarterback in the divisional round today, and now, we’re going to rank every game in the divisional round by how watchable it is.
Tyler Sullivan handled the rankings, and here’s what he came up with:
1. Ravens at Bills, 6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday (CBS): “Could we really put any other game at No. 1? Of course not! This is as big of a divisional-round matchup as you can find in any given year.”
2. Commanders at Lions, 8 p.m. ET, Saturday (Fox): “Yes, this game currently has the biggest spread out of the bunch with the Lions as 9.5-point favorites, but don’t sleep on Washington. After all, they have coined the moniker “Cardiac Commanders” for a reason. So far this year, Washington has won games on the final play seven times, including Zane Gonzalez’s walk-off field goal that doinked throughout the uprights against the Buccaneers last weekend. … if you’re looking for a high-flying game, this is the one to tune into as the Lions (51.6%) and Commanders (50%) ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the NFL in highest drive score percentage during the regular season.”
3. Texans at Chiefs, 4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC/ESPN): “The main draw here is, of course, the Chiefs. They not only emerge from the first-round bye, but they have essentially been off since Christmas after resting starters in the regular-season finale. Is there any rust from having such an extended period of time off from competitive football? Did it help? Furthermore, Kansas City is attempting something that has never been accomplished before in NFL history — winning three straight Super Bowls.”
4. Rams at Eagles, 3 p.m. ET, Sunday (NBC): “You know it’s going to be a great weekend of football when you have a game packed with superstars landing at the bottom of these rankings. This matchup has no shortage of star power on either side with Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts headlining the quarterback positions, while both the Rams and Eagles boast dynamic wide receiver duos in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp along with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.”
If you want to check out Tyler’s entire rankings, be sure to click here.
4. Three things the Texans must do to pull off an upset in Kansas City
If there’s one game this weekend where almost no one is predicting an upset to happen, it’s the one happening in Kansas City. The Chiefs are favored to beat the Texans by 8.5 points and not many people are giving Houston a chance to win.
So can the Texans pull off the upset? They might be able to, according to Jordan Dajani, but only if they pull off the three things below.
1. Don’t let Patrick Mahomes run. “We know what Mahomes can do throwing the football, but at times, his scrambling ability has been the X-factor for Kansas City. Mahomes actually runs more in the playoffs than he does in the regular season. In his eight regular seasons, Mahomes is averaging 3.9 rushing attempts for 20 yards per game. In his 18 playoff games, Mahomes averages five rushing attempts for 29.1 yards per game.”
2. Win the turnover battle. “When you’re playing the Chiefs in Arrowhead, you can’t beat yourself. The Texans ended the 2024 regular season with a +10 in turnover differential, but Houston lost the turnover battle, 0-2, vs. Kansas City in Week 16. The Chiefs don’t turn the ball over much, as they finished the regular season with just 14 giveaways, tied for No. 4 in the NFL. Winning the turnover battle would be great for Houston, but at the very least, the Texans can’t gift the Chiefs extra possessions.”
3. Another offensive weapon must step up for the Texans. “Joe Mixon rushed 25 times for 106 yards and a touchdown vs. the Chargers, while Nico Collins caught seven passes for 122 yards and one touchdown. Stroud added 42 yards rushing on six carries, but the majority of offensive production came from those three players, so someone else needs to step up.”
You can check out Jordan’s full story here on what the Texans need to do to pull off the upset.
5. Bills set to be a rare home underdog: Why history says that’s a bad thing for Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills could be facing a situation this week that they’ve never faced before in modern NFL history: They might go into Sunday’s game as a home underdog.
Here are two reasons why that’s interesting:
- Bills have been a home underdog ZERO times over the past 54 years. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Bills have played a total of 18 home playoff games and they’ve been favored in EVERY single one. The Bills have been one of the most dominant home teams in NFL playoff history, going 15-3 in those 18 home playoff games (They haven’t been as dominant against the spread, going 11-7).
- Bills tend to struggle as underdogs in the playoffs. Since 1970, there have been 17 playoff games where the Bills have been an underdog and they’ve gone 2-15 straight up and 3-13-1 against the spread. They haven’t won a playoff game as an underdog since the 1992 season when they beat the Steelers, 24-3, in a divisional-round game where Pittsburgh was favored by two points. Since then, the Bills have lost nine straight as a postseason underdog, including two Super Bowls. Basically, the oddsmakers are usually right when they make the Bills a playoff underdog.
The Bills are not a team you want to bet on when they’re the underdog, and right now, it’s starting to look like that’s how things are going to shake out for Sunday’s game. The Bills opened as a one-point home favorite, but after money came pouring in on the Ravens, the odds flipped, and now, Baltimore is favored by 1-point as of right now.
6. Extra points: Cowboys set to interview two former NFL head coaches
It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Cowboys getting busy with their coaching search. The Cowboys have two interviews lined up this weekend and both will be with former NFL head coaches. The first one will come on Saturday with former Jets head coach Robert Saleh. That will be followed up on Monday when the Cowboys interview former Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier. Even if the Cowboys don’t end up hiring one of these two guys, they will have satisfied the Rooney Rule, which means we could see a hire as early as next week. The Cowboys have also requested to interview Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, according to NFL.com. Moore spent four seasons as the Cowboys OC, so his name will certainly be one to watch.
- Two playoff offensive coordinators set to interview for coaching jobs. Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken is going to be busy over the next 48 hours. Not only will he be interviewing for the Jaguars job today, but he also has an interview lined up with the Bears on Friday, according to ESPN.com. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik also has an interview lined up today and that will be with the Jets. If you want to check out the full list of coaching interviews that have gone down around the league, you can check that out by following our coaching tracker here.
- Bills sign former Ravens QB. It’s not easy to simulate Lamar Jackson in practice, but the Bills are going to do their best to try. The Bills have signed Lamar’s former backup, Anthony Brown, and the plan is to have Brown play the role of Jackson in practice this week. You can read more about this interesting signing here.
- Commanders work out three kickers. Zane Gonzalez is dealing with a hip injury, so the Commanders worked out three kickers on Wednesday with Aldrick Rosas, Matthew Wright and Tucker McCann being invited to the workout, according to NFL.com. Gonzalez hit a 37-yard field goal to beat the Buccaneers in the wild-card round, but if his hip is bothering him this week, the Commanders might have to make a change at kicker.
- City of Cleveland sues the Browns. The Browns are trying to leave downtown Cleveland, but the city is doing everything in its power to make sure that doesn’t happen. The city is alleging that the Browns are violating the “Modell Law,” which is a law that was put in place after Art Modell moved the Browns to Baltimore in 1996. Under the law, the team can’t leave Cleveland without giving six months notice, and during that six months, the city is allowed to find potential investors to buy the team and keep it in Cleveland. You can read more about the story here.
