With the NBA season at its midway point, let’s take a spin around the league as we approach the trade deadline and playoff push.
With the NBA season at its midway point, let’s take a spin around the league as we approach the trade deadline and playoff push, starting with the top two teams in the league — the Cavaliers and Thunder — who face off on Thursday in another marquee matchup.
1. Cavs-Thunder, NBA Finals: Who ya got?
Dan Devine: Thunder. I went with Oklahoma City before the season, and I’ll stick with it at the midway point. Pick your preferred metric — net rating, margin of victory, simple rating system, adjusted efficiency — and the Thunder have been running ahead of Cleveland … and a June date gives our ol’ pal Chet Holmgren plenty of time to get back on the floor and up to speed, unlocking an even more menacing version of what’s already been one of the best teams in recent memory.
Vincent Goodwill: Thunder, if this is the matchup and someone help us all on these flights. They’ve experienced just enough pain in the playoffs, which is still a prerequisite for Finals success — sans the 2015 Warriors. Matchup-wise, they’re bigger and longer across the board. The Cavs could win the 3-point game, which makes this all obsolete. But I’m taking Shai as the most impactful player and the Thunder wings being the difference.
Ben Rohrbach: Thunder. They would have the best player in the series (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and the best defense (102.9 points per 100 possessions) — by a wide margin. That defense, by the way, already four points better than any other team in the league, will only improve with the return of Holmgren. Seriously, imagine adding an All-Star to a team with a historic net rating, and you have the Thunder, ever-so-slightly better than another historically great team.
Morten Stig Jensen: Thunder. We’re looking at a team that plays spectacular defense, and is one shooter away from basically being the Boston Celtics of last season. Gilgeous-Alexander is arguably the second or third-best player in basketball right now, and his all-around game, with his uncanny shot-making capabilities, just gives him, and thus the Thunder, the edge for me. But I want it noted that I am in no way a nonbeliever of the Cavs. They’re real, they’re good, and they could definitely pull it off if they come in with a tight game plan.
2. Which playoff contender should make a trade deadline deal?
Jensen: Thunder. I chose them over the Cavs above, because I think they’re a more complete team, and yet, I think they need to swing a trade for a shooter. OKC needs someone who’s utterly relentless, and utterly fearless when it comes to functioning as a zone buster. Anfernee Simons is a player I’ve often thought about in specific context to Oklahoma City, even if his defense isn’t necessarily on par with the rest of the roster. Having a 3-point shooter, who can take around 10 per game, by simply playing off of Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams? Uh, yes please!
Rohrbach: Rockets. They currently own the Western Conference’s second-best record and the league’s fifth-best net rating. By any metric they should be a serious contender, though none of us consider them that way. Their youth, along with the absence of a star who can close playoff games for them, limits their ceiling. They have the pieces to make a move. Jalen Green, for one, is a high-upside prospect. Who he would fetch is the question. I don’t know if Zach LaVine is their answer. Jimmy Butler might be. De’Aaron Fox could be.
Goodwill: Bucks. Are they still a Finals contender? I’d think so, but I’m still a little scared off by their not having dynamic wings who can chase down long rebounds to start the break or hit relocating shooters for critical 3s. That’s not to say the Celtics or Cavaliers aren’t real, but honestly I’d take these Bucks over the Knicks, who seem poised to have the odometer break before June.
Devine: Grizzlies. Two statements, both true:
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The Grizzlies are the only team in the NBA to rank top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency — typically an indicator that a team is a serious title contender.
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The Grizzlies are just 12-12 against .500-or-better opposition, 5-6 against teams with top-10 point differentials, and a combined 2-8 against the Thunder, Rockets, Nuggets, Clippers and Lakers — a.k.a., the rest of the top six in the West.
We know that Memphis has been in the market for a big wing to fit in between Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, reportedly getting close to the goal line with Brooklyn on a deal for Dorian Finney-Smith before the Lakers swooped in with an offer that Sean Marks preferred. Let’s punch it in this time, with a handoff from Chris Herrington at The Daily Memphian: Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia and a protected future first-round pick to Brooklyn (maybe two, depending on how hard a bargain Marks can drive); Cam Johnson to the most beautiful land in the world. Memphis gets a 6-foot-8 40% career 3-point shooter who moves well enough off the ball to profile as a nice fit in the Grizzlies’ whirling-dervish offense, can defend both forward spots, and has been a rotation player on a Finals team.
3. True or False: LeBron, Steph and KD will all miss the playoffs.
Goodwill: False. By sheer numbers, one of them will make it. If you’re disheartened by the Warriors saying they’re okay with not mortgaging the future for the present, I present to you, the Phoenix Suns. They’re all-in. On what? Who knows? The Lakers don’t seem truly ready to come off those future first-round picks for an impact player and their point differential suggests their record is smoke and mirrors. But the future could very well be right now. Is the NBA ready for the violent changing of power?
Devine: … define playoffs. If it’s “make the top six,” then I think the answer is probably true. (Multiple projection models like some combination of Dallas, Minnesota and Sacramento to leapfrog the Lakers for a top-six spot by season’s end.) If it’s “get into the play-in and advance as a seventh or eighth seed,” though, I think at least one of the Lakers, Warriors and Suns will be able to pull that off … which, admittedly, isn’t exactly the most ringing endorsement.
Oh, well. We’ll always have Paris.
Rohrbach: True. Only LeBron’s Lakers are currently in line for a guaranteed playoff spot, and they have the worst net rating of the three aging stars’ teams. So, I will say: They all miss the playoffs. What fun is a take that splits the difference? Honestly, given the amount of time the NBA has spent promoting its aging stars in primetime games, it would be high comedy if they all failed to make the game’s biggest stage. And maybe then it would force the league to promote new faces.
Jensen: False. Look, I could see all types of scenarios come into play here. All three make it, all three miss it, some make it, and some miss it, etc. So I have to simply go with my gut on this one. Two of the three make it, and I think it’s LeBron and Steph, despite the fact that Dennis Schröder hasn’t worked out well for the Dubs yet. The Suns did just trade for Nick Richards, but will that fix everything? I have my doubts.
4. Who has been the MVP of the first half?
Rohrbach: Nikola Jokić. He is third in the NBA in points per game, third in rebounds per game and second in assists per game, all while ranking second in the league in 3-point percentage. Find anyone not named Wilt Chamberlain who has put together so impressive a statistical season. And the Nuggets are 28.1 points better when Jokic is on the floor. Twenty. Eight. Point. One. No other regular is within 10 points of that on/off rating. Gilgeous-Alexander has been incredible for the West’s best team, but I can’t help but think, if they switched teams, this wouldn’t even be a conversation. Jokić would win in a landslide.
Devine: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s leading the NBA in scoring while also playing a vital role on the NBA’s best defense. He’s the best player on what’s been either the best (by net rating) or second-best (by win-loss record) team in the NBA. He leads the NBA in raw plus-minus by more than 150 points. Look at virtually any advanced metric out there, and it’s Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić running 1-2 atop the leaderboard … and SGA’s played more games and minutes than the big fella, on a team that’s 9.5 games ahead of Jokić’s Nuggets in the standings.
Jokić deserves a ton of credit for keeping the Nuggets in position for home-court advantage in Round 1 despite early-season injuries and turmoil. But the Thunder are in position to be one of the most dominant regular-season teams we’ve ever seen, and all of that starts with SGA.
Jensen: Nikola Jokić. In terms of record, it’s Gilgeous-Alexander. But if we’re talking about the most valuable individual player, it’s gotta be the best player in all of basketball, Derrick Jones Jr. Oh wait, that’s not how you spell Nikola Jokić. Jokić is ridiculous. The numbers (both the raw and the advanced) speak for themselves, but just watch a handful of games, and it’s obvious that he’s once again, by far, the most influential player in the game. He’s earned it.
Goodwill: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The standard could very well be higher for voters in giving their selection to Jokić — both from fatigue and perhaps the precedence of him winning a historic fourth MVP when it looks like his team has been more middling overall (not on a 50-win pace) than dominant — recent stretch notwithstanding. He’s the best player, bar none. But even the advanced statistical models have Gilgeous-Alexander pulling even on the stats that sway MVP. Jokić is barely above SGA in win shares per 48 minutes (.310 to .308) and SGA has led the best team in the tougher conference. It’s no slight to Jokić if SGA wins it, it just ramps up expectations for May and June.
