Detroit has a complete team and might be the most dangerous group to face in January, especially at Ford Field. But that doesn’t mean the Lions can’t lose.
We saw last season what Ford Field looks like for a Detroit Lions playoff game. It was perhaps the best atmosphere in the NFL.
Imagine what it would be like if the Lions were two home wins from a Super Bowl, as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
A fairly miraculous win at the Houston Texans last week has the Lions at 8-1 and in good shape for the top seed and a bye. The Lions have been the best team in the NFC, perhaps the NFL, and it’s getting harder to figure out who might knock off Detroit in January.
But here’s a reminder that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did beat the Lions in a fluky game all the way back in Week 2, when the Bucs were out-gained 463-216. Fluky losses can happen, even in the playoffs.
Jahmyr Gibbs and the Detroit Lions have the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
The Lions are far from unbeatable and the NFC should have a good playoff field, but only two teams really stand out as dangers to keep Detroit from its first Super Bowl. Here’s a look at the potential playoff foils for the Lions:
We’re not accepting applications from teams under .500 at this point. The NFC is too deep for that. So while a team like the Chicago Bears or Buccaneers could make a run and then be a giant killer in January, we’ll wait to see it happen.
There are arguments to be made for the Vikings and Packers, though the biggest problem is the Lions have already beat both of them on the road. It makes it hard to pick either to win at Ford Field in a playoff game, though each team is capable. Especially if Minnesota can fix Sam Darnold’s turnover slump.
The Commanders, Cardinals and Falcons all fall in the same bucket. They can all score, but it’s hard to imagine their defenses being good enough to slow down the Lions. The Commanders and Cardinals defenses in particular have been much better than expected, but are they stopping Detroit? Probably not. They’ll depend on outscoring the Lions in a high-scoring game and that’s a tough ask.
Two other top NFC teams match up better though.
The Philadelphia Eagles were 2-2 going into their bye week. They were banged up and unimpressive. Everyone stopped paying attention apparently, because they’re somehow flying under the radar now.
Since the bye the Eagles are 5-0. Over their last four games their point differential is +78 with three 20-point wins, each one of them on the road. The schedule has been easy but the NFL doesn’t hand out 20-point wins. The Eagles have been good.
The Eagles are good enough on defense to limit Detroit. They’re sixth in defensive EPA (expected points added) according to TruMedia. Philadelphia has picked up new coordinator Vic Fangio’s schemes very well the past few weeks. The Eagles’ defense is seventh in the NFL in EPA allowed per rush and ninth in success rate against the run, which is a good strength to have against a Lions offense that can do it all but defaults to lining up with its elite offensive line and two star backs and punishing other defenses.
And Philly has the type of offense that can run it, control the clock and keep the Lions offense off the field. They’re fourth in time of possession, in large part because they’re second in the NFL in rushing yards and first in attempts.
The formula and the talent is there for the Eagles to be a big problem for the Lions.
The 49ers wouldn’t be in the playoffs if the season ended today. They’d be eighth in the NFC. The Cardinals would win the NFC West. The 5-4 49ers wouldn’t be a wild card.
But there is time to go this season. And the 49ers are still scary if they can ever hit their ceiling.
San Francisco just got Christian McCaffrey back, and while they won’t be whole this season because Brandon Aiyuk is done for the season, they still have a fantastic roster. The advanced stats say the 49ers are already good, despite their disappointing record. They are fifth in total DVOA, third on offense and fifth on defense. There are only two teams in the NFL that are top five in offensive and defensive DVOA: Detroit and San Francisco. They’re second in the NFL in yards per play and that’s without a Hall of Fame running back for eight games and Aiyuk not even making a big impact in the seven games he played.
It’s OK to discount the 49ers. They don’t look as dominant as the past few seasons. They have struggled in many games. But it’s dangerous to forget about the 49ers. The analytics say they aren’t that far off from the elite team they have been, and it’s the level of team that could get hot in December and present problems in January for a team like the Lions.
There’s a long way to go this season. Injuries will happen. The Lions could drop a few games and lose control of the No. 1 seed. Other contenders could emerge. But at very least, the Eagles and 49ers look like they could ruin Detroit’s plans of heading down to New Orleans for a Super Bowl this season.
After all, we need to figure out who the Kansas City Chiefs will inevitably face in the Super Bowl, right?
