Five teams have successfully addressed their rotation needs. Which clubs are still searching for help? And most important: what seven arms, including Sasaki, are still available?
For all the transactions we’ve seen so far during baseball’s offseason, no player subgroup has been more consistently active than the starting pitching market, which has been steadily buzzing from the beginning of winter all the way up until the calendar flipped to 2025.
Now that January has arrived, it’s time to take stock of where the starting pitching market stands with pitchers and catchers slated to report to Arizona and Florida in roughly six weeks. Which teams have successfully addressed their rotation needs? Which teams are still searching for help? And most important: who is still available?
Starting pitchers accounted for 20 of our Top 50 free agents at the outset of the offseason. Thirteen of them have signed new contracts:
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D-backs sign Corbin Burnes (No. 3) for six years, $210M
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Dodgers sign Blake Snell (No. 6) for five years, $182M
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Yankees sign Max Fried (No. 7) for eight years, $218M
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Athletics sign Luis Severino (No. 13) for three years, $67M
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Mets sign Sean Manaea (No. 14) for three years, $75M
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Angels sign Yusei Kikuchi (No. 17) for three years, $63M
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Rangers sign Nathan Eovaldi (No. 18) for three years, $75M
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Reds sign Nick Martinez (No. 19) for one year, $21.05M (accepted qualifying offer)
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Red Sox sign Walker Buehler (No. 23) for one year, $21.05M
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Guardians sign Shane Bieber (No. 24) for two years, $26M
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Cubs sign Matthew Boyd (No. 35) for two years, $29M
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Orioles sign Tomoyuki Sugano (No. 44) for one year, $13M
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Mets sign Frankie Montas (No. 50) for two years, $34M
This baker’s dozen doesn’t include Clay Holmes (No. 29), who we had labeled as a reliever, the role he has occupied for the majority of his big-league career. Holmes signed with the Mets on a three-year deal worth $39 million, and New York plans to transition him to a rotation role, a decision that will be one of the more compelling spring training storylines to monitor. Perhaps another team will sign a reliever on our rankings with the intention of having him start. Jeff Hoffman is reportedly a candidate for such a move. For now, we’ll stay focused on the remaining arms available who we already recognize as traditional starting pitchers.
We’ve also seen seven other big league deals for starters who were not on our Top 50 rankings:
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Red Sox sign Patrick Sandoval for two years, $18.25M
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Tigers sign Alex Cobb for one year, $15M
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Nationals sign Trevor Williams for two years, $14M
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Nationals sign Michael Soroka for one year, $9M
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Mets sign Griffin Canning for one year, $4.25M
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Angels sign Kyle Hendricks for one year, $2.5M
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White Sox sign Bryse Wilson for one year, $1.05M
These deals range from intriguing rehabbers like Sandoval to bounce-back candidates like Cobb and veteran stabilizers like Williams. Nothing too splashy, but these deals help set the market for the lower-tier of starters still seeking jobs — and also can eliminate potential landing spots for such arms as these pitching staffs get more crowded.
In addition to the 20 starters signed to free-agent deals, we’ve also seen six major trades involving pitchers who are all but certain to be members of rotations in 2025. In chronological order:
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Reds acquire Brady Singer from Royals
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Guardians acquire Luis L. Ortiz from Pirates
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Red Sox acquire Garrett Crochet from White Sox
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Brewers acquire Nestor Cortes from Yankees
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A’s acquire Jeffrey Springs from Rays
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Phillies acquire Jesús Luzardo from Marlins
This huge collection of signings and trades has drastically altered the shape of the starting pitching market. Certain rotation depth charts across the league have filled up while others remain shallow and in need of a boost. Let’s begin with the teams who seem unlikely to invest further into starting pitching this offseason:
Have added, rotation seems set: Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, D-backs
These contenders have made some of the biggest moves in this arena and, besides a pursuit of Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki (more on him shortly), it seems highly unlikely any of them will be prioritizing adding another starter anytime soon.
Haven’t added, rotation seems set: Mariners, Pirates, Twins, Rays, Royals
These teams entered the winter with strong starting staffs and have far more pressing needs elsewhere on their rosters.
Have added, but could maybe still use another arm or 2: Mets, Rangers, Cubs
You can look at these clubs’ rotations and be like “OK, yeah, I see five solid starters there.” But considering the Mets’ spending power, the Cubs’ urgency to get back to the postseason and the Rangers’ highly active winter thus far, it would hardly be a surprise to see any of these three make another addition in this space.
Have added, but still need another arm or 2: Orioles, Tigers, Guardians
It was no secret that each of these AL postseason clubs entered the winter in need of rotation reinforcements, and each has gone about addressing those needs in different ways. Cleveland arguably belongs in a separate tier having retained Bieber and added a possible breakout arm in Ortiz with another rotation candidate in Slade Cecconi also acquired via trade. Not having the rehabbing Bieber to start the year has left the current depth chart with a lot of uncertainty. Detroit and Baltimore, though, having added only Cobb and Sugano, respectively, absolutely have work left to do if they are to enter spring training feeling like their rotations are in formidable shape.
Haven’t added … yet: Giants, Blue Jays, Padres
The Giants and Blue Jays have been linked to numerous top free agents on both sides of the ball all offseason. So far, neither has made a notable pitching move. The bottom portion of San Diego’s rotation does not reflect a championship contender but the Padres appear to have the financial flexibility to fix it — just not yet. No matter what the reason, it has been an uncharacteristically quiet winter for general manager A.J. Preller.
Could use more help, but will Angels, A’s and Nationals spend more?
Each of these clubs has made at least one notable rotation addition but could still use another boost if they want to be taken seriously as viable contenders. The Angels and Athletics made big early splashes with Kikuchi and Severino/Springs but have been quiet since. The Nats have more promising young mound talent already in place, but still sorely lack a bona fide frontline arm.
Wild cards: Cardinals, Brewers, Astros, Braves, Reds
This quintet is difficult to predict. St. Louis could end up subtracting. The Brewers are banking big on Brandon Woodruff coming back from shoulder surgery; might they look to add insurance on that front? The Astros have plenty of talent on paper and added Hayden Wesneski as useful depth in the Kyle Tucker trade, but still have a ton of uncertainty from a health/durability standpoint. You could argue the Braves belong in “all set” if we assume Spencer Strider comes back at full strength, but that’s a big if — and it’s not like Chris Sale and Reynaldo López don’t come with injury question marks themselves. And the Reds, even after retaining Martinez and acquiring Singer, were reportedly interested in dealing for Crochet. They also need far more help on offense and already have some young arms knocking on the door, so it’s hard to know what to expect from them.
Rebuilding, could use a veteran: Marlins, White Sox, Rockies
These clubs could end up with an experienced arm on a one-year deal that could either be trade bait in July or serve as veteran leadership for their younger pitchers.
7 top arms available
Now that we’ve established which teams could still be in the market to add a starter via free agency or trade, let’s take a look at what pitchers remain.
Here are the starting pitchers still unsigned from our rankings:
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Roki Sasaki (No. 2)
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Jack Flaherty (No. 12)
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Nick Pivetta (No. 26)
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Jose Quintana (No. 36)
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Max Scherzer (No. 42)
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Justin Verlander (No. 43)
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Andrew Heaney (No. 48)
Sasaki looms large as not just the top pitcher left on the market, but the most compelling storyline left to monitor this offseason. His fascinating free agency is expected to reach its highly anticipated conclusion sometime between when the international signing period opens on Jan. 15 and when Sasaki’s posting window closes on Jan. 23.
He has reportedly met with at least seven teams (Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Rangers and Giants) with more meetings expected to come in the near future, either with additional teams and/or with the few finalists. Because of his age (23), immense talent and the minimal financial outlay required to sign him, every team could and should want Sasaki regardless of their current rotation depth chart. Some staffs (Padres, Giants) need him a lot more than others (Dodgers, Yankees), and his decision may spark a cascading effect elsewhere in the market.
Beyond Sasaki, Flaherty and Pivetta are the only two pitchers left who appear likely to command considerably lucrative multi-year deals. Each comes with potential promise and pitfalls. Flaherty had a generally excellent 2024 campaign and is only 29, but his injury track record and fluctuating performance in prior seasons has teams wary. Pivetta may offer more durability and consistency than Flaherty but not as much perceived upside, and will require a team to forfeit a draft pick due to the qualifying offer he received from Boston.
Quintana and Heaney go together as veteran southpaws who could each reasonably eat innings effectively at the back of a contending club’s rotation. Quintana is coming off a far better season, but Heaney is two years younger, and may be more likely to secure a multi-year deal.
Future Hall of Famers Scherzer and Verlander continue to search for the right landing spot as they each attempt to extend their legendary careers. It’s hard to imagine either getting more than a one-year deal, and it remains to be seen if either is committed to pitching strictly for a contending team or are willing to sign with any club willing to give them a rotation spot.
Outside our rankings, there are also still several capable alternatives available: veteran workhorses (Charlie Morton, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Colin Rea), right-handers with a hint of upside (Michael Lorenzen, Spencer Turnbull) and lefty innings-eaters (Martín Pérez, Patrick Corbin).
The trade market
For teams more inclined to add pitching via trade than free agency, there are several names worth monitoring as spring training approaches.
Let’s start with Crochet’s former Chicago teammate, Dylan Cease. On the surface, it’s strange that Cease finds himself in trade rumors again just a year after San Diego acquired him from the White Sox. It’s not like the Padres are suddenly rebuilding and are trying to flip Cease for a bunch of teenage prospects for the future. They are still in win-now mode. But with a bloated payroll due to a bevy of long-term guaranteed contracts for several of their other stars, the Padres’ financial flexibility currently appears to be severely limited. San Diego’s complete lack of activity this winter despite several notable holes on the roster suggests that it may need to offload some significant salary in order to make any notable additions via trade or free agency, especially if it wants to avoid going into the luxury tax. Trading Cease, who will make approximately $14.6 million in his final year of arbitration before hitting free agency next winter, would represent such a move.
With Joe Musgrove out for 2025 due to elbow surgery, San Diego’s rotation is already thin beyond Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish. A deal involving Cease would either need to net the Padres a younger, cheaper pitcher who can contribute right away (think King as a main part of the Juan Soto trade return a year ago), or afford San Diego enough payroll relief to replace Cease in free agency (a tall task with few high-caliber options left available). It is this context that makes a Cease trade a particularly delicate maneuver for San Diego, and also underscores how massively impactful it would be for the Padres to land Sasaki, a move that would increase their flexibility on multiple fronts on top of the boon of adding a pitcher of his caliber.
As the Cardinals continue to search for a Nolan Arenado trade, they also have three veteran arms who could be moved if St. Louis is committed to offloading payroll through other avenues: Erick Fedde, Steven Matz and Sonny Gray.
Fedde and Matz are each under contract for only one more season as backend rotation options, with Fedde’s upside maybe a touch higher. Gray is certainly a more appealing target talent-wise, but he is owed $60 million over the next two seasons, wields a no-trade clause and would reportedly prefer to stay in St. Louis, so he appears less likely to be on the move.
Somewhat similar to Gray is Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo, who too possesses a no-trade clause and is owed nearly $75 million over the next three seasons. Though it remains unknown how likely it is that Castillo would green-light a trade out of Seattle, his name has surfaced in recent reports involving potential deals as the Mariners continue their search for infield upgrades via trade. Though president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto stated earlier this offseason that trading from Seattle’s premium rotation would be “Plan Z,” Castillo always felt far more likely to be available in the right deal than any of the four other excellent right-handers who are all in their mid-20’s — Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo — arguably all of whom were better than Castillo in 2024. Trading Castillo may still not be a preferred route for the Mariners, but the longer they go without making a trade — it’s been a rather uncharacteristic lull in deals for Dipoto and Co. — Castillo’s name will likely continue to swirl in rumors as spring training approaches.
Finally, there’s D-backs lefty Jordan Montgomery. His debut season in the desert was disastrous as he never found his groove after signing on Opening Day and was ultimately bounced from Arizona’s rotation. His poor performance ensured there was no way he would re-enter free agency by opting out of the $22.5 million he was owed for 2025, but his financially motivated decision to stay put hardly made his spot on the Arizona starting staff any more secure. A potential path toward earning back a rotation spot became even less clear after Arizona’s surprise signing of Burnes. With the money Montgomery is owed and the brutally bad season he is coming off of, Arizona likely can’t expect much in return in a potential trade.
But there’s also no way Montgomery is suddenly this bad now, and he seems like a perfect bounce-back candidate for another team to buy low on. He’s still by far the most likely pitcher to be dealt before Opening Day.
These are the names we’ve heard floated thus far. Others could emerge leading up to Opening Day.
When surveying the league for potential trade candidates, our instinct is often to focus on veterans making significant salaries and/or players whose contracts are set to expire over the next year or two. Indeed, these pitchers make up the vast majority of the deals we’ve already seen thus far: Crochet, Luzardo, and Singer are each under team control for just two more seasons, while Cortes will hit free agency next winter. Springs has two years left plus a club option in 2027.
At the same time, there’s no doubt that teams are also making calls on younger pitchers with markedly more years of team control remaining. While clubs are understandably far more reluctant to part with such arms, these deals are possible under the right circumstances. So far, only Cleveland has managed to do so in its trades for Ortiz (under team control through 2029) and Cecconi (through 2030) from Arizona in the Josh Naylor deal. There’s still time for other clubs to exhibit similar creativity when it comes to bolstering their rotations.
How the rest of the free-agent market shakes out — headlined by Sasaki’s upcoming decision — will dictate clubs’ willingness and aggressiveness toward pursuing these deals. Last winter, Burnes wasn’t traded to Baltimore until February, and the Padres didn’t acquire Cease until mid-March.
A ton of starters have changed threads already this winter, but the movement is far from over, and rotations are far from set as we sit here in January, especially when factoring the wave of injuries that have unfortunately become an annual part of the spring training experience. Teams will always need more pitching, and that dynamic will continue to spur more transactions among this group of players in the weeks ahead.
