Brian Robinson Jr. fumbled twice in Week 16. We want you to trust him — and us — as you compete for a fantasy football championship.
Set your Week 17 fantasy football lineups with Dalton Del Don’s key start/sit advice for every remaining game on the slate.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Start: Chig Okonkwo
Okonkwo has racked up 17 catches on 21 targets over the last two weeks when he’s been fantasy’s TE2. More red-zone looks would be nice, but Okonwko’s target per route run rate jumps to 23.7% and his yards per route run leaps to 1.60 with Mason Rudolph this season. Okonkwo is a legit athlete who gets a Jacksonville defense allowing the most EPA/pass this season. Okonkwo is a top-12 tight end this week.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Start: Alexander Mattison
Mattison saw 19-of-32 RB opportunities last week. He split routes with Ameer Abdullah, but Mattison is the favorite for red-zone work. The Raiders are rare favorites against a comically depleted Saints’ team, so game script should be more favorable than usual Sunday. New Orleans has yielded the fifth-most fantasy points and an NFL-high 17 rush touchdowns to running backs this season.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Start: Adam Thielen
Thielen has a 24% target share since returning from injury, when he’s been fantasy’s WR24 over that five-game span. He gets a pass-funnel Buccaneers’ defense this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the second fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks, but Buccaneers’ opponents have averaged the second most pass attempts (37.3) this season. Tampa Bay has also ceded the fourth most fantasy points to the slot, where Thielen has run 77% of his routes. Bryce Young has shown real growth over the second half of the year, so Thielen is a solid start during Fantasy Championship Week.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Sit: Amari Cooper
Sauce Gardner is questionable, and Cooper has upside after seeing the most air yards in any game this season three weeks ago. But he’s totaled just two targets and 10 yards over two games since, and Sunday’s game has the potential for rain and wind. Moreover, the Jets have ceded the second-most fantasy points to the slot but the fewest to the perimeter, where Cooper has run 81% of his routes.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sit: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle led the NFL in rushing over Weeks 13-15 thanks in part to a highly favorable schedule, but that ended last week, and he gets another one of the league’s toughest run defenses Sunday. The Eagles have yielded the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks by a wide margin. Philadelphia has also allowed the second-lowest EPA/rush. The Cowboys will be missing CeeDee Lamb and sport one of the lowest implied team totals (15.25 points) this week. Even with Jalen Hurts out, Dallas remains 7.5-point underdogs, so game script may not be favorable. Dowdle is a bench candidate this week.
Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
Start: Malik Nabers
Nabers has averaged 12.8 targets over the last four games, when his 34.2% target share ranks third in the league. The rookie is battling a toe injury, but he’s expected to play Sunday. Quarterback remains an issue, but Nabers is still a top-20 WR given his massive usage. The Colts have allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers over the last two weeks, and Nabers is set for another double-digit target game on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
Sit: Jerry Jeudy
Dorian Thompson-Robinson had zero net passing yards at halftime last week, when the Browns produced only 67 catchable air yards; they averaged 171 with Jameis Winston starting. DTR is a major problem for Cleveland pass catchers, and he’s been named the starter again in Week 17. Thompson-Robinson is 0-for-11 with three picks on passes thrown 15+ yards this season, and Sunday’s game has potential for heavy wind. Jeudy has been limited in practice with a leg injury, and Cleveland sports a lowly 15-point implied total. Jeudy was fantasy’s WR2 over Weeks 11-15, but he’s only a desperation start this week.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Start: Jordan Love
Love has been just the QB28 since Week 8, as he’s been one of fantasy’s biggest disappointments over the season’s second half. Volume has been the major issue, as Love has gotten 8.7 YPA but averaged just 25.5 pass attempts over that eight-game span. The Eagles have attempted the fewest passes per game this season with 25.9. Green Bay has the league’s fourth-lowest pass rate over expectation this year, but things should be different Sunday against a pass-funnel Vikings’ defense. Minnesota has allowed the lowest EPA/rush but the most pass attempts (38.3 per game). Vikings’ opponents have the league’s highest pass rate (64.7%) this season.
While Love’s 6.1 YPA against man coverage is toward the bottom of the league, he ranks third in the NFL with a 9.1 YPA versus zone (h/t TruMedia). The Vikings have used zone coverage at the league’s fourth highest rate (76.8%), which is also a boost for Jayden Reed (his fantasy points per route run sees a 60% increase against zone). This matchup could be a shootout and is indoors with a 49-point total. Love is a top-10 QB this week.
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders
Start: Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson Jr. lost two fumbles over the first 17 minutes of last week’s game, when he posted his worst fantasy performance of the season during the semifinals. Robinson Jr. hadn’t committed a single fumble all season before Sunday’s game, and he was facing an Eagles defense that entered allowing the lowest EPA/rush since Week 9. Philadelphia hasn’t let a running back run for 100 yards this season, and the Eagles had ceded the fewest rush schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the previous five weeks. Moreover, Robinson Jr. has been game-script-sensitive all year, and the Commanders were trailing for most of the matchup.
Robinson Jr. carries extra risk now should he lose another early fumble in Week 17, but he should remain Washington’s lead back otherwise. The Commanders are 3.5-point favorites with a healthy implied team total (25 points) in a game with potential rain, so Sunday night’s matchup is more favorable. Robinson Jr. has gotten 5.1 YPC at home this season and sees good usage in the red zone, so he belongs in fantasy lineups this week.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Start: Jauan Jennings
Jennings is coming off back-to-back disappointing games, but he’s in a good spot to bounce back Monday night. The 49ers are down to their No. 4 RB facing a pass-funnel Detroit defense allowing the fifth-most pass attempts per game (35.3). Lions’ opponents have the league’s third-highest pass rate (62.3%), so volume should be there. Jennings ranks seventh in yards per route run this season, and he thrives against man coverage, which Detroit has used at the league’s highest rate (41.9%).
The 49ers’ offense isn’t the same without Trent Williams, but San Francisco still sports a healthy 23.5-point implied total. The Bears couldn’t expose an injury-ravaged Lions’ defense last week, but Detroit had allowed 79 points over its previous two games. Stick with Jennings this week.
