After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Monday’s eight-game schedule
The Detroit Tigers attempt to post their second five-game winning streak of the season when they visit the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Monday for the opener of their three-game series. Detroit also won five in a row from Apr. 4-8 but is just 5-7 on the road and has lost three of its last four away from home. The Tigers send Jack Flaherty (1-2, 2.63 ERA) to the mound against Ronel Blanco (2-2, 5.01), who has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.
The Tigers-Astros game is one of eight on Monday’s MLB schedule. Elsewhere, the Cincinnati Reds also seek a fifth straight victory when Nick Martinez (0-3, 5.40) makes the start against the visiting St. Louis Cardinals opposite Andre Pallante (2-1, 4.05); Bailey Ober (2-1, 5.04) looks to help the Minnesota Twins to their fourth consecutive win when he faces Gavin Williams (2-1, 4.15) and the host Cleveland Guardians; and the Athletics begin a seven-game road trip and try to push their record over .500 for the first time since March 29 when JP Sears (3-2, 3.21) squares off against Patrick Corbin (2-0, 3.77) and the Texas Rangers.
For the Detroit-Houston matchup, sportsbooks have set Flaherty’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5, while Blanco’s is 5.5. Of the two, Blanco’s props rate higher on the SportsLine Projection Model’s five-star scale. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Blanco Under 5.5 strikeouts rates as a 3.5, while Flaherty Under 6.5 rates as a 3.
In addition to Smith’s, there is one pitcher strikeout prop for Monday that the model has rated at 4.5 stars and another rated at 4 stars. Here they are:
Ronel Blanco Under 5.5 strikeouts (-103) vs. Tigers (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 3.5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts
Blanco averaged nearly a strikeout per inning over his first three major-league seasons (225 in 225 2/3 innings) but is below that pace this campaign. In five outings, the 31-year-old Dominican right-hander has fanned 20 batters across 23 1/3 frames. Blanco recorded only three strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings against the Toronto Blue Jays in his last turn after registering just one across five frames versus the Cardinals in his previous start.
JP Sears Over 3.5 strikeouts (-166) vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
Sears has gone Over this number in three of his five starts this season, including last Wednesday against Texas. In that outing, the 29-year-old left-hander recorded five strikeouts over five innings en route to his third win of the year. Sears has fanned seven batters twice in 2025 and registered at least four strikeouts in two of his three turns versus the Rangers last season. In nine career starts against Texas, he has fanned 45 batters across 48 1/3 frames.
Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 strikeouts (+108) vs. Yankees (6:35 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
Sugano led Japan’s Central League in strikeouts twice during his tenure with the Yomiuri Giants but has not displayed that form over his first five starts with the Orioles. The 35-year-old righty has fanned only nine batters across 28 innings and has gone Over this number just once, as he recorded four strikeouts in 5 1/3 frames against the Kansas City Royals on Apr. 4. But Sugano is facing a Yankees team that ranks third in the majors and second in the American League with 264 strikeouts. New York is tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the major leagues with 45 home runs, however, so if Sugano can avoid serving up blasts, he could last long enough to tally at least four strikeouts.
