After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Friday’s 15-game schedule
The Yankees’ Max Fried can become the first six-game winner in the majors this season when he faces the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx. After a no-decision in his 2025 debut, Fried (5-0, 1.19 ERA) has won each of his last five starts. He will square off against the Rays’ Ryan Pepiot (2-3, 4.24).
Sportsbooks have set Fried’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5 (Over -116, Under -105), while Pepiot’s is 5.5 (Over +100, Under -115). The SportsLine Projection Model rates Pepiot Under 5.5 as a 3-star play and projects 5.4 strikeouts.
The Fried-Pepiot pitching matchup is one of 15 on Friday’s MLB slate. The model has found even better value on Friday’s 15-game MLB schedule, with two pitcher strikeout props rated at 5 stars and a third rated at 4.5. Here they are:
Logan Allen Over 3.5 strikeouts (+135) vs. Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.2 strikeouts
The 26-year-old righty has gone Over this number in three of his five starts this year. Last time out, he got roughed up by the Red Sox and couldn’t get out of the fifth inning and struck out just two. But Boston has one of the lineups in the league, while Toronto has one of the worst. The Jays have struck out 34 times over their last four games.
Clay Holmes Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115) vs. Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.1 strikeouts
This seems like a low number. Holmes (3-1, 2.64) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in four of six starts this season, though one of the Under strikeout efforts came in his last start. His transition from Yankees closer to Mets starter hasn’t affected his stuff. He is averaging a career-high 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings this season. His strikeout percentage of 27.5 also is a career-high mark. Two starts ago, he faced this St. Louis club and struck out six in 6 innings.
Robbie Ray Under 7.5 strikeouts (-107) vs. Rockies (10:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts
Ray (3-0, 3.73) has had a solid start to the season, but advanced statistics suggest his success has been more smoke and mirrors. The veteran lefty ranks poor in average exit velocity, walk percentage and barrel percentage. On Friday, he faces a Colorado club that struck out just six times against San Francisco’s staff.
