After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the four best pitcher strikeout props for Tuesday’s 15-game schedule
The New York Mets seek their second six-game winning streak of the young season when they host the National League East-rival Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on Tuesday for the middle contest of their three-game series. New York, which won five in a row from Apr. 2-8, matched that run in the series opener on Monday as it withstood a late comeback attempt and posted a 5-4 victory. Griffin Canning (2-1, 3.43 ERA) takes the mound for the Mets looking to win his third consecutive start. He will oppose Cristopher Sanchez (2-0, 2.96), who also has won back-to-back starts and recorded a career-high 12 strikeouts in a triumph over the San Francisco Giants in his last outing.
The Mets-Phillies game is one of 15 on Tuesday’s MLB slate. Elsewhere, Nick Pivetta (3-1, 1.57) and the San Diego Padres visit Jack Flaherty (1-1, 2.53) and the Detroit Tigers; Shota Imanaga (2-1, 2.22) and the Chicago Cubs host Dustin May (1-1, 1.06) and the Los Angeles Dodgers; and Patrick Corbin (1-0, 3.86) and the visiting Texas Rangers take on Osvaldo Bido (2-1, 2.61) and the Athletics.
For the New York-Philadelphia matchup, sportsbooks have set Sanchez’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5, while Canning’s is 4.5. Of the two, Canning’s prop rates the highest on the SportsLine Projection Model’s five-star scale. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Canning Over 4.5 strikeouts rates as a 4, while Sanchez Under 5.5 rates as a 3.5.
There is one pitcher strikeout prop for Tuesday that the model has rated at 5 stars and three others rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts (-121) vs. Astros (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.0 strikeouts
Bassitt has gone Over this number in each of his first four starts of 2025 and registered a season-high 10 strikeouts over five scoreless innings against the Atlanta Braves in his last outing. The 36-year-old right-hander’s best road performance thus far came versus the Mets on Apr. 5, when he recorded nine strikeouts against his former team. Houston has been fanning at a high rate of late, doing so nine times in Monday’s series opener versus the Blue Jays and on 11 occasions against San Diego the previous day.
Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 strikeouts (-115) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
Feltner is looking to bounce back from a rough outing against the Dodgers last Tuesday, as he struck out just one batter and walked six while surrendering five runs over 2 2/3 innings. The 28-year-old righty was much better in his previous start, fanning a season-high seven across six frames versus the Milwaukee Brewers. Like the Astros, Kansas City also has gone down on strikes often in recent games, fanning 11 times on Sunday and nine on Friday against the Detroit Tigers.
Zack Littell Over 3.5 strikeouts (-126) vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
While Littell remains in search of his first win of 2025, he has gone Over this number in three of his four turns thus far. The 29-year-old righty, who is making his third career start against the Diamondbacks, has registered 11 strikeouts over 8 1/3 innings in eight appearances versus Arizona. Only three teams have struck out fewer times than the Diamondbacks this year (169), but they have whiffed nine or more times in each of their last six games and reached double figures in the final two contests of their three-game series against the Cubs in Chicago this past weekend.
Jose Quintana Over 3.5 strikeouts (-127) vs. Giants (9:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
Quintana has been superb for the Brewers after beginning the season in Triple-A, allowing only one run across 12 2/3 innings while winning his first two outings with Milwaukee. The 36-year-old Colombian left-hander has made six starts and one relief appearance against San Francisco in his career and has registered 31 strikeouts over 34 1/3 frames. Quintana should eclipse this number on Tuesday, as the Giants have struck out 212 times this year to rank fourth in the majors.
