SportsLine’s computer model has revealed three free NBA prop picks for Friday’s 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament games after evaluating the latest NBA odds
The 2025 NBA playoffs will be finalized at the conclusion of Friday’s NBA Play-In Tournament games. The Atlanta Hawks will host the Miami Heat (-1, 219.5) at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the Memphis Grizzlies hosting the Dallas Mavericks (+6.5, 221.5) at 9:30 p.m. ET to determine the No. 8 seeds in each conference. The Heat and Mavericks will try to win their second straight road game and make the postseason after having the 10th-best record in their conference. They’ll need another standout performance from stars like Tyler Herro in Miami and Anthony Davis in Dallas to pull off another upset. Herro had 38 points on Wednesday and could be a popular play for NBA player props at betting sites following that performance. His over/under for total points is 25.5 in NBA prop bets and he’s +520 to score 35-plus points on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Dyson Daniels Over 2.5 steals + blocks (-125)
Daniels went Over this number in each of his final five regular-season games and in 15 of his final 18 contests entering the NBA Play-In Tournament. Daniels failed to go Over this number in Atlanta’s first Play-In Tournament game, but he had two blocks for just the fourth time over his last 16 games. Daniels has been a defensive ballhawk as he had multiple steals in 16 of his final 18 regular-season games, so Oh doesn’t expect him to go back-to-back games without causing defensive turnovers. The recent blocking success with two blocks in back-to-back games adds to his true strength of creating steals, which furthers his chances at hitting the Over on Friday.
“One game without a steal should not be enough to steam his line this low,” Oh said. “Not when he averages 4.1 steals + blocks at home (vs. 3.3 on road) and has gone over this 29-8, 78.4% of games.” DraftKings Sportsbook currently offers the best odds at -125.
Zach Edey Under 12.5 rebounds (-122)
Edey has been a rebounding machine for Memphis since the start of April with at least 13 rebounds in six of his last seven games, but he’ll have some tough competition down low to secure boards against the size and rebounding ability of Dallas’ Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. Oh thinks the oddsmakers have overreacted by raising Edey’s over/under total this high heading into a more defensively-focused Mavericks team following the Luka Doncic trade.
“Edey was averaging a solid 0.37 rebounds per minute until April when over the last seven games he is averaging 51.4% rebounds per minute,” Oh said. “The combination of facing resting and bad teams and lucky bounces has resulted in a rebounding rate that is just too unsustainably high. I also think there is a chance for early foul trouble for Edey, which could keep him under 30 minutes and at a 0.4 rebound/minute rate, the Under will hit.” FanDuel Sportsbook is offering the best odds at -122 while other sportsbooks have juiced the price with others even moving the over/under to 11.5 rebounds.
Ja Morant Over 6.5 assists (+105)
Although Morant has gone Under this total in five of six games since the start of April, he had exactly six assists in three of those contests, so he’s been right at the number. Four of those six games came against teams already in the 2025 NBA playoffs and he’s had at least seven assists in three of his last four games against teams not currently in the postseason. Morant had eight assists against Dallas on March 7.
Morant is averaging 9.6 assists over his last 14 home games against teams with a losing record, and he went Over his assists total in 10 of those 14 contests. Morant injured his ankle against the Warriors on Tuesday and is viewed as a game-time decision, but in a win-or-go-home contest, it’s hard to imagine Morant on the bench. If he deems himself healthy enough to play, expect a heavy workload and his assist total has been consistently high in situations like Friday. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the best odds at +105.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Friday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
You can also view expert betting advice before making Friday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks from an expert who is 91-66-1 (+1830) over his last 158 NBA picks.
SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props, including Alex Selesnick, aka PropStarz, who is 125-85 (+2088) over his last 210 player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who PropStarz is including in his NBA player prop picks for Friday, which includes a play on one of Dallas’ top scorers.
