Fantasy football analyst Dalton Del Don looks back at some odd stats from the 2024 season.
A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Drake London’s WR23 PPG rank was a lie
A huge Week 18 padded his stats, but London was the WR23 in fantasy points per game during the fantasy season (Weeks 1-17), so he failed to live up to his lofty ADP.*
London was the WR9 in expected fantasy points, sandwiched between CeeDee Lamb and Nico Collins. He was the WR4 in expected fantasy points per route run (minimum 75 targets). London continued to be hindered by miserable quarterback play — this time by a completely immobile Kirk Cousins. But there are only three WRs who’ve drawn targets and converted first downs at a higher per-route rate than London through 50 career games. He ranked fourth in ESPN’s Open Score in 2024.
London is an elite wideout who’s been held back, but he might finally have a quarterback in 2025.
*London finished as the WR9 in overall fantasy points, but using average is better than volume when assessing fantasy value. Put differently, Tee Higgins finished as the WR18 overall, while Garrett Wilson was the WR10. It’s better if players stay healthy, but Higgins (the WR2 in ppg) clearly helped fantasy managers a lot more than Wilson did this season.
Michael Penix Jr. led the league in highlight throw% after taking over as starter (while dealing with a league-high drop%), and his high aDOT and low sack/scramble rates are incredibly promising for his pass-catchers’ production. London saw a whopping 45% first-read target share and a 50% air yards share (both would’ve led the league in 2024) over three games with Penix. London averaged 117 receiving yards and saw six end-zone targets over that span, which was the same as Ladd McConkey got all season (and more than Brock Bowers).
It’s a small sample, but London’s yards per route run (3.56) with Penix would’ve ranked second, and his targets per route run (39.4%) would’ve ranked first. Penix and London look like an ideal connection for many years to come.
London is a budding star who appears to finally have a quarterback. He should be drafted as a top-10 fantasy wideout once again next season despite a disappointing 2024.
Bryce Young’s QB27 rank was a lie
Young finished as the QB27 in fantasy points per game over the full season, but he was the QB7 over the final six weeks (if we include Week 18). Young looked like a different player after getting benched, especially after Carolina’s bye, when he produced 16 total touchdowns to just three picks over the last seven games. That came with a modest 6.9 YPA, but Young showed a new willingness to run, and better weapons in 2025 should lead to improved efficiency; Young suffered the fifth-most dropped yards (242) despite missing multiple games.
Young had just one Big Time Throw before Week 8, but he led the league in Big Time Throw Rate after returning as starter. He also had the second-lowest turnover-worthy pass% and the third-most QB rushing TDs (five) over that 10-game span.
BRYCE YOUNG JUST DID THE THING! pic.twitter.com/scivbHP4NK
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) January 5, 2025
It may be worth noting Young’s schedule was highly favorable down the stretch, but he also led multiple late would-be game-winning drives (including one against the league’s top defense in Philadelphia) that ultimately fell short thanks to his teammates. Young’s height may always limit him some, but he looked far more like a No. 1 overall pick down the stretch. Young’s lowly 3.9% TD rate is sure to improve in 2025, when he’ll remain the Panthers’ franchise quarterback.
Young is the QB23 in early “expert consensus ranks,” but he’ll be drafted higher come summer.
Brock Purdy’s 20 TD passes were a lie
Purdy ranked third in YPA (8.5) and top 10 in passing yards, but he tied for 15th in touchdown tosses. Losing Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk didn’t help, as the 49ers’ red-zone offense fell from first in 2023 down to middle of the pack in 2024. Purdy’s TD rate also dropped to 4.4% (19th in the league) after he led the NFL in 2022 (6.9%) and 2023 (6.2%). Purdy threw 45.5% fewer touchdowns this season compared to last while attempting more passes.
Purdy attempted the eighth-most passes inside the 10-yard line and the seventh-most inside the five despite missing multiple games. He added five rushing scores, but Purdy was clearly unfortunate to have just 20 passing TDs with such elite efficiency (8.5 YPA) and that type of volume in the scoring area.
Purdy will continue to benefit from Kyle Shanahan’s system, and the 49ers should be much healthier in 2025 while facing a last-place schedule coming off a true nightmare season. Expect Purdy’s TD% to shoot back up next year.
Xavier Worthy’s WR40 rank was a lie
Worthy struggled to get going as a rookie, as he was fantasy’s WR56 after Week 10. But Worthy was the WR25 over the final seven games (he rested Week 18) despite Kansas City trading for DeAndre Hopkins. Worthy can undoubtedly improve as a route runner and with timing/spatial awareness, but he also suffered from Patrick Mahomes’ struggles throwing the deep ball. Worthy was among the league leaders in uncatchable air yards%.
WARNING: Do not watch if you have Xavier Worthy on your fantasy teams. (Please regress. We have families.) pic.twitter.com/1g2AKOj1aS
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 3, 2024
Worthy’s usage down the stretch was truly elite, as he averaged 10.3 targets and 2.7 rushes over his final three games of the regular season, including a whopping 11 opportunities in the red zone. He’ll be better in Year 2 and will continue to benefit from playing in an Andy Reid offense with Mahomes as his QB. Worthy will see target competition from a returning Rashee Rice, but Travis Kelce will be 36 years old, and Hollywood Brown will be an unrestricted free agent.
Worthy had more than a handful of near-miss long touchdowns this season, so his final stat line looks highly misleading. He’s someone to target in 2025 fantasy drafts.
James Cook’s 16 rushing touchdowns were a lie
Cook entered the season with just four career rushing touchdowns over 33 games, but he tied for the NFL lead in 2024. Cook had 16 rushing scores despite having the 19th most carries. He saw the 12th-most rush attempts inside the five-yard line and only 45.3% of his team’s red-zone rushes. Outside of Cook, the six RBs who scored at least 13 rushing touchdowns this season averaged 20.8 touches; Cook averaged 14.9. He was the RB27 in expected fantasy points per game, sandwiched between Najee Harris and Alexander Mattison. Teammate Ray Davis impressed as a rookie and should see more work in Year 2.
Cook is a good running back who’ll continue to benefit from playing on an elite offense, but his TD production is very likely to drop in 2025 if his role remains the same.
