SportsLine’s proven model has simulated Dallas vs. Colorado in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs first round on Monday 10,000 times
A series lead will be on the line when the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche face off in Game 5 of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs first round on Monday. Dallas took a 2-1 series lead thanks to back-to-back overtime victories, but the Avs roared back on home ice for a 4-0 victory in Game 4. Puck drop from American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 9:30 p.m. ET.
Colorado is a -140 favorite on the money line (risk $140 to win $100) in the latest Stars vs. Avalanche odds, while Dallas is the +118 underdog (risk $100 to win $118). The over/under for total goals scored is six, and the Avalanche are also -1.5 (+178) on the puck line. Before making any Stars vs. Avalanche picks, be sure to see the NHL predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second full week of the 2025 NHL playoffs a combined 78-55 on top-rated NHL puck line and over/under betting picks, returning more than $1,500 for $100 players. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns. Now, here are its two best bets for Avalanche vs. Stars on Monday:
Stars +1.5 (-218)
Dallas covered the puck line in two of their last three games, with the exception being the shutout in Game 4. Mackenzie Blackwood tallied back-to-back shutouts once this season, but he wasn’t facing a gritty Stars team in playoff mode then. The SportsLine projection model has the Stars covering in well over 70% of simulations.
You’ve seen one of the best bets for Stars vs. Avalanche on Monday. Now, get picks for every game from the model that ended the season going a combined 77-53 on over/under and puck-line picks.
Nathan MacKinnon 5+ shots on goal (+120)
The 2024 Hart Trophy winner is keeping pace with five other skaters with four goals this postseason, but he is head and shoulders above the league with 24 shots on goal through four games. He had two goals at American Airlines Center in Game 1 and will likely pepper Jake Oettinger with shots on Monday night as he tries for a similar result. Since MacKinnon is averaging eight shots per night, it makes sense that DraftKings Sportsbook has a five-plus shots prop bet listed at +120 odds.
Want more NHL picks for Monday? Matt Severance is SportsLine’s No. 1 NHL expert, entering the NHL playoffs on a 120-62 roll on NHL sides picks, returning $2,490 for $100 players. See his best bet for this matchup at SportsLine.
Jonathan Drouin Over 0.5 assists (+185)
Drouin has registered 21 assists in 40 career playoff games and is currently tied with teammate Logan O’Connor with three apples in four games, the most in this first-round series. BetMGM Sportsbook lists the likelihood he will tally another assist at +185 odds.
