Who could potentially unseat the Chiefs in the playoffs?
The Chiefs are zeroing in on another No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, setting the stage for another trip to the Super Bowl, and potentially their third consecutive championship.
But Kansas City hasn’t mindlessly cruised to their current 14-1 record, as 11 of those victories have been one-score games. Their +78 point differential is currently ninth-best in the NFL.
That got us wondering — how would we rank the teams who actually could beat the back-to-back defending champion Chiefs in the playoffs?
I’ve narrowed my list to five teams, regardless of conference, best equipped to top the Chiefs in the postseason.
The Bengals still need the dominoes to fall in a specific manner to make the playoffs, yet they have some control over the outcome with a colossal Week 17 matchup at home with the current No. 7-seeded Broncos.
According to The New York Times playoff simulator, if Cincinnati wins its two final games — Week 18 is on the road against the Steelers — its playoff chances are 14.8%, so this unequivocally is a long-shot.
For this article, that point is essentially irrelevant. If the Bengals get in, they have the makeup to provide the NFL with what on paper would be the most shocking upset in the short history of the seven-team-per-conference playoff format that began in 2020.
All the way back in September, the Bengals were a split-second defensive pass interference call away — which was the right call — from beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead. They lost 26-25 in Week 2, and in that game, Joe Burrow went 23 of 36 passing for 256 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions without Tee Higgins available. As an offense, Cincinnati registered a rather high 51.6% success rate, fourth-highest in football that week.
Of course, the teams have taken on different shapes since then, but Burrow’s history against the Chiefs would likely weigh heavily on the minds of Kansas City’s defenders. In three-regular season games, he has a 127.7 passer rating in contests against the Chiefs, the second-highest rating he’s managed against one opponent with multiple matchups in the sample.
He had problems in his most recent playoff loss to the Chiefs — a one-touchdown, two-interception performance with a 70.2 rating — in late January 2023. Yet Burrow’s clearly having his most dynamic season in the NFL. One would expect the Chiefs offense to have its way with the Bengals shoddy defense in a playoff matchup, yet the familiarity between these clubs, plus the looming, big-play capabilities of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins and a surging run game, make the long-shot playoff Bengals worth including in these rankings.
The Lions went into Arrowhead Stadium and stunned the Chiefs to begin the 2023 season, and that’s before we realized Jared Goff was an exquisite fit in Ben Johnson’s offense with the Lions.
Starting with that win, Detroit has gone 27-9 with 19 games in which it has scored 30 or more points. And it can score in a variety of ways, which is vital when facing a Steve Spagnuolo defense that often limits your most effective method of moving the football. The Lions are third in rush EPA per play in non-garbage time scenarios entering Week 17 and sixth in dropback EPA per play.
Their injury-ravaged defense is probably not incredibly equipped to limit Mahomes and Co. in the playoffs, but the Lions are seemingly at peace with playing in high-scoring affairs, and if they make the Super Bowl, they’ll likely be healthier defensively than they are now — linebacker Alex Anzalone should be back on the field, and Aidan Hutchinson has even mentioned the Super Bowl is the goal for his return.
Despite the recent downturn in the Lions’ defensive reputation, this is still a unit fifth in EPA per play allowed outside of garbage time and ninth in the NFL with 22 interceptions.
And this is one offense that, conceivably, could go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in the playoffs, if necessary.
The last team to score more than 30 points on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense was the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII nearly two years ago, an astonishing fact in today’s parity-filled, usually high-scoring NFL.
And now the Eagles have an MVP candidate at running back in Saquon Barkley, a freaky specimen capable of taking over a game if Jalen Hurts isn’t dicing secondaries through the air. Take Week 16 for example, despite the Eagles’ last-second loss to the Commanders.
Hurts suffers a concussion after a mere four pass attempts, and Barkley goes for 150 yards on 29 carries with two touchdowns. He’s averaging 3.35 yards after contact, the 13th-best figure in football. That’s so impressive, especially considering Barkley leads the league with 314 rushes.
And remember, in last year’s Super Bowl the Chiefs won in overtime, Christian McCaffrey’s heroics were essential to the 49ers‘ success on the ground and in the short passing game. While I’d advise against believing you’re going to run it efficiently against the Chiefs run-defense unit that currently ranks sixth in EPA per play allowed on the ground, possessing a superstar running back undoubtedly helps accumulate yardage beyond what is blocked.
And the Eagles passing offense, headed by A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, could test Kansas City’s cornerback depth after Trent McDuffie. Just as importantly, Philadelphia’s defense has been completely revamped since that Super Bowl in early 2023.
Through their Week 16 game, the Eagles have allowed 37 plays of 20-plus yards, the second-lowest figure in football. In that 2022 campaign, during the regular season, Philadelphia surrendered 75 plays of 20-plus yards, the most in the NFL. And the Eagles have one of the deepest and most ferocious defensive fronts in football, with five defenders already registering 20 pressures on the season.
The Bills are a default add because… they’ve beaten the Chiefs in four-consecutive regular seasons, of course something that no other team in the NFL has done. They did it in Arrowhead three-straight times, then became the first team since the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII in February 2023 to score 30 points on Kansas City’s defense in their 30-21 win in mid-November this year.
These two teams have played each other eight times since the start of the 2020 season — they have intimate knowledge of each other’s intricacies.
And six of those eight matchups have been one-score contests.
In the playoffs, where margins are narrowed, the outcomes often are decided by the play of the quarterback, and one of the very select few quarterbacks who can match Mahomes play-for-play is Josh Allen. Beyond him, this is quite easily the most potent ground game the Bills have boasted in the Allen era. It’s currently second only to Detroit in rush EPA per play outside of garbage time, and James Cook has 14 touchdowns, 12 of which have come from beyond the one-yard line.
With Mahomes, he’s morphed into a completely different quarterback against Buffalo in the playoffs compared to the regular season. That has to be considered.
But I’d suspect the Chiefs would even admit the Bills are one of the scariest teams for them to face in the postseason, given the recent history between the team and Buffalo’s quarterback.
Mahomes has an 86.6 rating when blitzed this season, which ranks 35th out of 50 qualifying quarterbacks through Sunday’s action in Week 16. Beyond that, Mahomes’ pressure-to-sack percentage is noticeably higher this season than any of his others in the NFL. He’ll enter the Christmas Day game against the Steelers with a 17.6% pressure-to-sack rate. It was 10.6% during the 2023 regular season and never higher than 13.4% in any other campaign before this one.
The Vikings are the most blitz-happy club in football and have held that distinction for two years now. They blitz the opposition on 40.8% of pass plays — the highest figure in the league — after leading the NFL in blitz rate at a seismic 51.8% a season ago.
And it’s not just that Minnesota blitzes more than any team. On defensive plays with a blitz, Brian Flores’ unit has allowed a -49.19 total EPA through Week 17, the lowest total EPA in football.
Offensively, the Vikings bring it with a wide array of options, headlined by superstar Justin Jefferson. Then there’s Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. And even if the Chiefs could get after Sam Darnold, he’s played out of his mind even when pressured — with 12 touchdowns to four interceptions and 1,039 yards at a league-high 8.1 yards per attempt in that scenario entering Week 17.
Given their unadulterated aggression, Mahomes’ inability to elude rushers at his typical rate, and the surprisingly effective play from Darnold and his collection of plus skill-position players, the Vikings receive the top spot.
