SportsLine’s model simulated Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2025 CFP National Championship game 10,000 times
The inaugural 12-team field is down to two and the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship game is set for Monday, Jan. 20 between the No. 8 seed Ohio State Buckeyes and No. 7 Notre Dame. Ohio State breezed past Tennessee and Oregon in the CFP bracket before grinding out a 28-14 win over Texas in the semifinals thanks in large part to defensive end Jack Sawyer’s late 83-yard fumble return for a touchdown. Notre Dame has leaned on its steady defense and some timely plays on offense to get past Indiana, Georgia and Penn State to advance to the national title game.
Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Buckeyes are 9.5-point favorites in the latest Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 46.5. Before making any Notre Dame vs. Ohio State picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks. It went 43-36 on top-rated college football picks in the 2024 season, and was a profitable 27-16 combined on money-line and over/under picks. It also called seven of the eight outright winners in the College Football Playoff bracket thus far. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen impressive returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Ohio State vs. Notre Dame. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines and trends for Notre Dame vs. Ohio State:
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame spread: Ohio State -9.5
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame over/under: 46.5 points
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame money line: Ohio State -415, Notre Dame +320
- OSU: 9-6 ATS this season
- ND: 12-2-1 ATS this season
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why Ohio State can cover
A stunning loss to Michigan in the regular season finale left head coach Ryan Day’s future in doubt and plenty of questions about Ohio State’s legitimacy as a title contender. However, the Buckeyes regrouped and have stormed through the CFP bracket, beating their three opponents by a combined score of 111-52. Quarterback Will Howard and Jeremiah Smith were an unstoppable combination in the first two games.
With Smith and the offense held more in check by Texas in the semifinals, it was Ohio State’s top-ranked defense that saved the day. The Buckeyes held firm near the goal line as Texas looked to tie it late, setting up Sawyer’s heroics. A Caleb Downs interception sealed the OSU win on the next drive. The Buckeyes have covered and won by double-digits in all three playoff games, setting up the chance for them to roll past the Irish on their way to a title. See which team to pick here.
Why Notre Dame can cover
Oddsmakers and bettors have largely underestimated Notre Dame ever since the Irish were stunned by Northern Illinois in Week 2. The Irish have won 13 straight since then and only two wins during that span were one-possession games as they went 11-1-1 ATS during that span. Like the Buckeyes, Notre Dame has an elite defense. The Irish rank second nationally with just 14.3 points per game given up and that unit has shined in the CFP, giving up an average of 17 points per game against three talented offenses.
Offensively, the Irish are powered by a rushing attack that ranked 14th nationally. Running back Jeremiyah Love (159-1121-17) was one of the most efficient backs in the nation with an average of 7.1 yards per carry. He’s been battling a knee injury and the 11-day gap between games should be beneficial for him. Quarterback Riley Leonard completed 66.4% of his passes this season and was the team’s second-leading rusher with 866 yards, while running back Jadarian Price was also a big contributor on the ground with 733 yards. See which team to pick here.
How to make Ohio State vs. Notre Dame picks
The model is going Over the total with the model projecting 48 total points. It also says one side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Ohio State vs. Notre Dame spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $2,000 on its college football picks, and find out.
