Jordan Dajani gives his picks for Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season
Merry Christmas to all. It feels like we have football every day this week. We had “Monday Night Football,” followed by two Christmas games on Wednesday, “Thursday Night Football,” a Saturday triple-header and then, of course, NFL Sunday. I guess spending time with family is out the window.
This week, Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud face off Christmas Day, the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals face off in a battle of AFC playoff hopefuls and the Green Bay Packers get a crack at Sam Darnold and the 13-2 Minnesota Vikings. Here’s what I’m thinking for Week 17. As always, credit to the CBS Sports Research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Top-five picks ATS record: 34-39-2
Overall ATS record: 107-129-4
Straight up record: 155-85
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network and fubo, try for free)
Doesn’t it feel like the football world is rooting for the Bengals as they attempt to defy the odds by making the postseason? Cincinnati is 7-8, but has the NFL’s leader in passing yards, passing touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and sacks. Joe Burrow also just became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 250 yards and three touchdowns in seven straight games.
I’m aware that I could get stuck with a push here, but I’m taking the Bengals at home with their backs against the wall. In order to make the postseason, the Bengals need to win out, the Broncos to lose out, the Miami Dolphins to lose at least one game and the Indianapolis Colts to lose at least one game.
The pick: Bengals -3
Projected score: Bengals 26-21
Bonus: SportsLine expert Eric Cohen reveals his score predictions for every game this week, including Broncos-Bengals. To see all his Week 17 picks, check out SportsLine.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
The Colts probably shouldn’t be favored by eights points over anybody, but how do you trust the Giants right now? The vibes are at an all-time low, as New York is 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games. The Giants can’t wait for the season to end, while the Colts are still in the playoff hunt.
The Colts led the Titans by 31 points before Tennessee scored 23 unanswered in what felt like garbage time. Anthony Richardson completed just seven passes, while Jonathan Taylor ran wild with 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Giants are the worst team in the NFL, so I’ll take the road favorite.
The pick: Colts -8
Projected score: Colts 20-10
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I lost my bet picking the Bills to win by two touchdowns vs. the New England Patriots last week, but I’m giving them another chance here in Week 17. The Jets just lost at home by double digits to the Los Angeles Rams, and now have to go on the road to play arguably the best team in the NFL? With Aaron Rodgers dealing with an injury? The Jets are 1-4 ATS as underdogs this season, and have won just one game since Halloween.
The pick: Bills -9.5
Projected score: Bills 24-13
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)
Michael Penix Jr. had a nice NFL debut, but it came against the terrible Giants, and his defense scored two touchdowns to make life easier on the rookie. Going up against the Commanders on the road in prime time and attempting to outduel Jayden Daniels is a different kind of test.
Daniels’ performance against the Philadelphia Eagles last week was pretty incredible. He became just the second quarterback ever to throw for 250 yards, five touchdowns and rush for 75 yards. Again, he’s a rookie who did this against the NFL’s No. 1 defense. The Falcons, on the other hand, do not have the top defense in football. While they held the Las Vegas Raiders and Giants to single digits over the last two games, Atlanta’s defense recently gave up 42 points to the Vikings and 38 points to the Broncos.
Atlanta has motivation to win this matchup and potentially clinch the NFC South, but it’s hard to back a first-year quarterback making his second-ever start on the road under the lights against a 10-win Commanders team with a red-hot Daniels. Give me Washington.
The pick: Commanders -4
Projected score: Commanders 28-22
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
I’ll admit, I thought the Lions were going to stumble on the road against the Chicago Bears after the loss to the Bills, in which they lost multiple players due to injury. Instead, Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams danced all over Chicago’s defense. Six Week 1 starters from the Lions defense are currently on injured reserve. No team has ever been without that many Week 1 defensive starters in a playoff game. However, the Lions don’t care. They are going to keep rolling.
This week, the Lions get a chance at some NFC Championship revenge against the lowly 49ers. San Francisco has already been eliminated from playoff contention, and is 0-2 in playoff rematches this season. Brock Purdy’s offense hasn’t scored more than 17 points in two straight weeks, and they are probably ready to turn their attention to 2025.
The Lions are the only undefeated team on the road this season, and are an NFL-best 9-1 in prime-time games over the last three years. I’ll lay the four points with Detroit.
The pick: Lions -3.5
Projected score: Lions 30-23
Other Week 17 picks
