These factors could help the Irish pull off a stunner over the Buckeyes on Monday night in Atlanta
No. 7 seed Notre Dame finds itself as the betting underdog for Monday night’s College Football Playoff National Championship against No. 8 seed Ohio State, but the Fighting Irish believe they have a plan to take down the Buckeyes and win the program’s first national title since 1988. This is, after all, an Ohio State team that lost as a heavy home favorite to rival Michigan in the final week of the regular season, and Notre Dame is arguably the hottest team in the country currently riding a 13-game winning streak.
And while Notre Dame finds itself in the underdog role in a game that has one of the larger national title game spreads in recent years (8.5), history has delivered several outright upsets by even larger underdogs in college football’s title game era. Oklahoma took down Florida State and Ohio State upset Miami both as 11.5-point underdogs, and in the College Football Playoff era, we’ve seen Ohio State (over Oregon) and Clemson (over Alabama) win as underdogs of just under a touchdown. With the resilience that this Notre Dame has shown throughout their season, overcoming injuries and delivering in big moments throughout the CFP, it seems foolish to count out the Fighting Irish at any point until the clock expires on Monday night in Atlanta.
So what does a Notre Dame win look like? Or, more specifically, what are the keys to a Notre Dame win? Let’s get into that, and on Monday, we’ll see how much this plan lines up with Marcus Freeman’s blueprint for success.
1. Long, sustained drives on offense
On the season, Notre Dame did not have the best third-down conversion rate compared to other College Football Playoff teams. But the interesting wrinkle is that Notre Dame rarely faced third down, ranking 133rd of 134 FBS teams in third-down attempts during the regular season. But in the 27-24 win against Penn State, Notre Dame was stellar on third down, particularly after halftime. The Fighting Irish converted 11 of 17 third downs for the game and 6 of 9 in the second half with quarterback Riley Leonard as the biggest factor in helping keep those second half offensive drives alive. Five of the six third down conversions after halftime came as a result of a Leonard pass or rush, and his ability to extend plays and make the right decisions in those spots is going to be a huge key to having similar success against an Ohio State defense that ranks among the best in the country.
“Converting on third downs” might be an overly simplistic key to success in any football game, but considering the opponent and Ohio State’s offensive explosiveness, it seems important to limit the number of possessions that the Buckeyes have to move the ball down the field. Controlling the clock, shrinking the game and putting together long drives can help Notre Dame in the field position battle and allow the Irish to keep the game manageable even if the Ohio State offense is having success.
2. Points off turnovers
There is a long-standing debate on turnovers, turnover margin and the notion of turnover luck. Some believe that turnovers as a statistic can be misleading given the random nature of deflections and funny bounces of the oblong-shaped ball. Others believe that avoiding turnovers, and even forcing turnovers, is something that can be coached, especially at the college level. Recently, a new focus has emerged that doesn’t concentrate on the creation of turnovers as a skill as much as points off turnovers. The idea being that recovering a fumble or catching an errant pass might involve some luck, but making that team pay with a score on the other end showcases a way for teams to gain an edge.
Notre Dame has been gaining edges all year thanks to the best points off turnovers performance in the country. Per TruMedia, the Fighting Irish have scored 137 points off turnovers in their 15 games (9.13 points per game), which not only ranks first nationally but is far ahead of second-place Tulane and its 107 points off turnovers in 14 games (7.64 points per game). As you might expect, Notre Dame has created more opportunities than anyone else for those points with the most turnovers gained in the country and have done a good job of balancing that on offense to produce the country’s fifth-best turnover margin. When looking at the ways to close the gap with Ohio State, creating free possessions and then making the Buckeyes pay for their mistakes is a huge way to level the playing field.
3. Win the ‘Middle 8’
Speaking of ways to close the gap with Ohio State, Notre Dame has been excellent all year at winning the “Middle 8,” which is the last four minutes of the second quarter and first four minutes of the third quarter. Some coaches make this a coaching point to their teams while others would simply file the success under “situational football,” but the numbers bear out that winning those 8 minutes on either side of halftime correlates strongly to the result of the game.
This season, Notre Dame has outscored its opponents 148-17 in the “Middle 8,” and that +131 point differential is by far the best in the country. The examples of how the Fighting Irish have used those situations to flip a game have been on full display in the College Football Playoff, using key scores and big plays in the late stages of the second quarter and opening possessions of the third quarter to first build a lead against Georgia in the quarterfinals and then overcome a deficit against Penn State. This might be a unique challenge against Ohio State as the Buckeyes have one of the best third quarter scoring margins in the country, but it remains a strength for Notre Dame that can be used to win at the margins in this heavyweight bout.
4. Success on early downs
As we mentioned earlier, Notre Dame had the unique profile in the regular season of being one of the best scoring offenses in the country while facing the second-least amount of third downs in the country. That only happens with success on early downs and explosive plays, both of which helped the Fighting Irish offense avoid what has been a weakness this season: third-and-long situations.
Notre Dame ranks 128th out of 134 FBS teams in third-and-long (7 yards or more) conversion rate, achieving a first down just 16% of the time. The ability to avoid third down altogether has prevented this weakness from being a bigger issue, but so too is how Notre Dame has avoided facing third-and-long by having success on early downs. Often that comes from a successful run by Jeremiyah Love or even a timely play-action pass from Riley Leonard to set up a third-and-short scenario that keeps defenses honest as it pertains to the run or the pass. But when Notre Dame is stuck in third-and-long, opponents have been able to pin their ears back, rush the passer and rally the to the football in the open field to get stops. Notre Dame’s third down success against Penn State came in part because of efforts that set up manageable third down situations; inside of that 11-of-17 conversion rate was an 8-of-8 showing on third-and-short. Successful plays on early downs can set up those third-and-short situations and help power the No. 1 key of sustaining drives on offense.
5. No more injuries
The story of Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff run is one of resilience, both in the micro with how they are seemingly never out of a game but also in the macro with how the Fighting Irish have overcome seemingly devastating injuries throughout the season. The year started with injury issues along the offensive line that many believed would doom their efforts in the season opener at Texas A&M, but Notre Dame left College Station victorious. Shortly after the upset loss to Northern Illinois, the Fighting Irish lost their starting center and a staring defensive end a week later in a win against Purdue. Then, the emerging stars who were stepping into the lineup, like defensive lineman Boubacar Traore, starting getting knocked out of the lineup because of injury and then All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison was lost for the season with a hip injury.
The issues have continued into the College Football Playoff with defensive tackle Rylie Mills, the team’s leader in sacks and tackles for loss, was injured in the first-round win against Indiana and then starting left tackle Anthony Knapp left the Penn State game with an injury and has been ruled out for the title game against Ohio State. One interesting development is that Charles Jagusah, the projected starter at left tackle in the preseason who was injured in camp and started this run of bad injury luck, returned to action against Penn State (at guard) and could be a factor in helping secure the offensive line against Ohio State.
All season long, the “next man up” mentality and resiliency of Notre Dame’s group have allowed the Fighting Irish to overcome these injuries without it impacting their efforts to win a national championship. But when projecting the path to victory against Ohio State, one clear factor is that this team — especially at certain positions — cannot sustain any more injuries to top players.
