Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri offers his key findings that will lead you a victory in Week 16.
Dominate in Week 16 with Sal Vetri’s keys to a fantasy football victory.
Pick-up-and-play: Brenton Strange @ LV
Evan Engram was ruled out for the season before Week 15. This opened a starting spot for Strange who has been solid this season when given more opportunities. In four games earlier this season when Engram was out, Strange was a top 10 TE in three of those four starts.
Strange is a big, athletic TE out of Penn State who was drafted in the second round last year by the Jaguars but was buried behind Evan Engram on the depth chart as a rookie. Jacksonville has worked him into the offense more this season, especially since Christian Kirk went down with a season-ending injury in Week 8. In Week 15, in his first start with Mac Jones under center, Strange caught a career-high 11 passes on 12 targets. He totaled 12.8 fantasy points and finished as a top-five TE on the week. He’s now finished as a top 10 weekly TE in four of his five starts without Engram this year.
Plus, Jacksonville starting TEs have averaged 8.4 targets per game with Mac Jones this season. Now Strange will face the Raiders in Week 16 who allow the fourth-most yards and third-most fantasy points to TEs. You can pick up and play the Jaguars second-year TE this week, barring something serious with his shoulder injury, though head coach Doug Pederson said the tight end will be good to go.
Best spot of the week: James Conner @ CAR
Don’t look now, but Conner is on pace to play all 17 games for the first time in his career. He’s continued to be one of the Cardinals’ best players this season and is once again threatening a top 12 finish at the position. Despite being nearly 30 years old, Conner ranks first in broken tackle rate and fifth in breakaway runs according to Player Profiler. You may think as an older back he’d be slowing down to end the season, but the opposite is happening. Conner is coming off his two best fantasy days of the season and in Week 15 he finished as the RB1 overall, producing 138 total yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots.
This week Conner gets another strong matchup. He’ll face the Panthers who allow the most rushing yards per game and the second-most rushing touchdowns this season. Carolina just allowed a career-high 149 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle in Week 15 and 124 yards to Saquon Barkley in Week 14. In fact, starting RBs have averaged 125 rushing yards against the Panthers in the past six weeks. Conner is a top-five back in this awesome matchup.
Sketchy spot of the week: Najee Harris @ BAL
Harris is coming off a worrisome performance. In Week 15 against the Eagles, he produced just 21 total yards on seven touches. We knew this matchup would be difficult, but it turned out to be the worst-case scenario. Harris had a bad fumble in the third quarter and didn’t play another snap after that. He’s now played 50% or fewer snaps in four straight games and has lost carries to not only Jaylen Warren but also Cordarrelle Patterson in every game during this stretch.
This week’s matchup goes from bad to worse as Harris takes on the Ravens on the road with a Steelers six-point underdogs. Baltimore allows just 3.5 rushing yards per play, the fewest in the NFL. Besides Saquon Barkley, no running back has topped 65 rushing yards against the Ravens this season and only three backs have earned 50+ rushing yards against Baltimore. Harris is a sit this week if you have any viable replacements.
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Sleeper of the week: Alexander Mattison vs. JAX
Mattison returned from injury in Week 15 and went on to play 32% of the Raiders snaps and earned 11 opportunities. He turned these opportunities into just nine touches for 24 yards in a game where Las Vegas only totaled 249 yards on offense. This isn’t the most appealing offense to be targeting but Mattison has a few things working in his favor.
First, Sincere McCormick was placed on IR on Wednesday and will miss the rest of the season. McCormick had taken over the Raiders backfield the past few weeks and even started over Mattison in Week 15. But with McCormick out, Mattison profiles to be the team’s early-down back. Another positive in Mattison’s favor is QB Aidan O’Connell is trending to play this week. This matters because Desmond Ridder started in Week 15 and wasn’t great. Ridder averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt across his 39 passes, including two interceptions.
Mattison is set to start this week for Las Vegas and it’s a good matchup. The Raiders are actually favorites at home against the Jaguars. Jacksonville allows the ninth-most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most explosive runs of 10+ yards this season. If you’re in a bind this week, Mattison could be a FLEX option worth considering.
Must-start of the week: Bucky Irving @ DAL
Irving put up a strong performance in Week 15 despite battling multiple injuries. Irving missed practice on the Wednesday and Thursday before Week 15 with a back injury but was able to suit up and earned a strong 17 opportunities. Irving cleared 100 rushing yards for the second time this season and continued to be efficient averaging 7.8 yards per touch. The Bucs rookie now ranks fifth in the NFL in yards per touch and sixth in broken tackle rate. He’s already one of the most dynamic backs in the league.
This week, Irving finds himself in a strong matchup as a favorite against the Cowboys. Since earning a larger role in Week 6, Irving has played four games as a favorite and in these contests he averages 95 total yards on 16.8 touches per game according to RotoViz game splits tool. This production has translated to 17.5 fantasy points per game during this stretch, which would rank sixth among all RBs since Week 6. His matchup this week is great as Dallas allows the fifth-most rushing yards per play and the most rushing touchdowns this season. Continue to start Irving this week.
Bounce-back of the week: Chuba Hubbard vs. CAR
In Week 15, Hubbard played his first game of the season without either Miles Sanders or Jonathon Brooks. The lack of trustworthy RB depth led to the Panthers leaning on Hubbard more than usual. Hubbard played 94% of the team’s snaps and handled 15 of the 17 RB opportunities (88%). This was one of the strongest usage games Hubbard has seen this season, but it went under the radar due to the Panthers losing by 16 points and trailing most of the game to the Cowboys. Hubbard was only able to total 49 yards on his 14 touches. But he’s set up for a bounce-back performance in a solid matchup this week.
Hubbard and the Panthers will face the Cardinals in Week 16. The Panthers are four-point favorites at home. This game sets up to be close which should help Hubbard earn more carries in the second half. Arizona ranks in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed per game and explosive runs of 10+ yards allowed this season. Expect Hubbard to see elite usage once again and threaten towards a top-12 finish on the week, something he’s done in seven of his 14 starts this year.
Trending Up: Tennessee Titans RB Tyjae Spears
On the surface, the Titans backfield may have looked like status quo in Week 15. Tony Pollard earned 17 carries to just four for Tyjae Spears. But we need to take a closer look because Spears played eight more snaps than Pollard and he ran 27 routes to just seven for Pollard. Pollard left this game with an ankle injury, but he was able to return. However, it’s unclear how much this injury may have affected his efficiency. Spears took over later in the game as the Titans trailed by multiple scores and found success mostly as a pass catcher, catching six balls for 87 yards and totaling two TDs.
Spears has spent most of this season banged up. He’s been on the injury report for six weeks and missed four games this year due to a concussion and a hamstring injury. This, along with a poor offense and o-line, has dropped Spears’ efficiency to 4.7 yards per touch compared to his impressive rookie season of 5.5 yards per touch last season.
Heading into Week 16, we need to track this Pollard injury closely. We’ve seen guys return to action with ankle injuries in the past and then miss games the following weeks. One big example of this was Joe Mixon earlier this season. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 2 but was able to return to the game. However, after the game, the injury swelled up and he went on to miss the next three games for Houston.
For now, Spears moves up the RB stash rankings, especially in a week where Zach Charbonnet was added everywhere and Trey Benson banged up his ankle for the Cardinals. Spears now becomes a top-five stash in the final two weeks of the fantasy season with even more upside if Pollard were to miss time.
