Gene Menez, who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot to win last year, reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby bets and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs
The 2025 Kentucky Derby gets underway on Saturday, and contenders, pretenders and live longshots have emerged for the first leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs. Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy, is the 3-1 favorite, according to the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Journalism has won his last four starts, so he’ll enter the Kentucky Derby 2025 confident he can win the first leg of the Triple Crown. However, the favorite has failed to win the Kentucky Derby the last six years. Post time for the 2025 Kentucky Derby is at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Should Journalism be high up in your 2025 Kentucky Derby projections, or should you target one of the potential 2025 Kentucky Derby sleeper picks like American Promise (30-1), Admire Daytona (30-1) or Tiztastic (20-1)? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Menez notes that it’s always dangerous to back a closer at Churchill Downs because they’re dependent on a hot pace up front, and they’re likely to lose massive ground in an attempt to pass horses on the far turn.
Sandman is one of the favorites due to his victory at the Arkansas Derby, which came after an “enormous pace meltdown.” Menez thinks that made Sandman’s victory look more impressive than it was, making him an overvalued horse. Plus, Sandman is trained by Mark Casse, who’s never won a Kentucky Derby. Despite victories at the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, Casse’s best finish at the Kentucky Derby came with Classic Empire (fourth) in 2017. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. It took Burnham Square three races to get his first win, but he’s been on a hot streak since that point. Since winning that maiden race last December, he’s also won the Holy Bull Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes, both key Derby prep races.
A disappointing fourth-place run at the Fountain of Youth Stakes has kept his odds a bit higher than some of the other 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites, however. “I don’t mind the dull effort in the Fountain of Youth because trainer Ian Wilkes, who studied under two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Carl Nafzger, knew that he didn’t need Burnham Square 100% cranked up to win the Fountain of Youth,” Menez told SportsLine. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgement | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
