Tim Doyle reveals his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting guide and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy for Churchill Downs. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET.
Will the morning line favorite cross the finish line first in the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday? The race-time betting favorite hasn’t won the Run for the Roses since 2018, when Justify took home the honors en route to winning the Triple Crown. Six long shots have won the race since then, including 80-1 Rich Strike, who entered the 2022 Kentucky Derby field just hours before the race. Will this trend continue, or will the favorite prevail? Post time for the Kentucky Derby 2025 is 6:57 p.m. ET. Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Sovereignty is 5-1 and Arkansas Derby winner Sandman is 6-1 among the 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Tim Doyle has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
Doyle is an experienced horse bettor, having lived less than 20 miles from both Belmont Park and Aqueduct Racetrack in New York. He prefers to play multirace wagers, from doubles to Pick 6s. And in 2020, he had the biggest score of his life, hitting a $150,000 Pick 5 at Oaklawn Park. During the 2023 Triple Crown, Doyle was on fire. He correctly called 15-1 longshot Mage to win the Kentucky Derby and 8-1 longshot Arcangelo to win the Belmont Stakes. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Doyle has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets for how to bet on the Kentucky Derby 2025. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Doyle’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Journalism, even though he is the 3-1 favorite. The Michael McCarthy-trained colt has had an impressive run through five career starts, winning four straight races leading up to the Run for the Roses. That includes victory at the Santa Anita Derby where he came from the back of the pack around the final turn for a first-place finish.
Doyle notes Journalism won in a small field, which won’t be the case on Saturday at Churchill Downs. He also mentions that this will be Journalism’s first race outside of California, which he sees as a negative heading into the Kentucky Derby 2025. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Instead of chasing the favorite, Doyle’s top pick is a double-digit longshot who “has a massive closing kick.” Doyle is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Doyle’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mage as a 15-1 live longshot in the 2023 Run for the Roses.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | Scratched |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | Scratched |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Baeza | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
2025 Kentucky Derby contenders
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza
