Sure, dealing with Jerry Jones may be a red flag for Dallas coaching candidates. But Dak, CeeDee and Micah will give the new coach a core other teams envy.
We’ve made it to the divisional round, arguably the best weekend of football of the season. Before we get to a handful of teams who will be playing, let’s start with a team whose inability to advance past this round the past three decades has them looking for yet another head coach.
Cowboys are a pretty good job to take, even with owner shenanigans
Troy Aikman took a strong stance when he proclaimed that he didn’t necessarily believe the Dallas Cowboys’ head coaching job was a good opening for free-agent coaches. The reason is fairly clear — Jerry Jones doesn’t seem to be on top of things headed into this search.
The Cowboys have spoken with preliminary targets for their vacancy, including Cowboys legend and Colorado head coach Deion Sanders. Former New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh is the lone interview thus far scheduled.
They passed on the first week of head coaching interview availability as they let Mike McCarthy’s contract expire instead of getting a head start on the search. That, paired with some weird inactivity in free agency last offseason, understandably has people concerned about where Dallas is right now.
However, the personnel that’s available should make this a highly appealing job outside of whatever Jones has going on.
There are worse places to start in terms of roster building than having Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons as core building blocks. Prescott and Lamb were off this season when they were on the field together, but they have had too many dominant moments together to assume that trend will continue. Those two already have long-term contracts with the team while Parsons, who was the best defensive player in football over the final month and a half of the season, will eventually have one himself. A franchise quarterback and receiver duo with a truly dominant pass rusher in his prime. Not many teams can boast even one of these pieces.
Outside of those guys, there’s a framework of a supporting cast that can feasibly help Dallas compete for the playoffs if Prescott can stay healthy for the season. Offensive guard Tyler Smith is one of the best in the league at his position while Cooper Beebe and Tyler Guyton are also promising prospects up front. They’ll have to figure out what’s next for future Hall of Fame guard Zack Martin, who went on injured reserve in early December. Martin may retire, which would be a big loss, but the cupboard isn’t totally empty along the line.
Dallas’ salary-cap space situation is tight with $7 million currently projected in cap space by Spotrac. That’s the harsh reality of having stars on the roster. The Cowboys will be able to make some movement to free space and a Parsons extension would lower his $24 million cap hit for 2025.
The roster is flawed, but there should be some merit toward the idea of not starting from scratch in terms of personnel. That alone would make this a tantalizing option, in spite of the group running the show.
Commanders are doing a ‘Kardiac Kids’ cosplay
Washington became the most exciting, heart-stopping team in the NFL seemingly overnight. The additions of head coach Dan Quinn, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and rookie sensation Jayden Daniels immediately turned the Commanders from a team that owned the second pick in the draft to a playoff team that has everyone on the edge of their seat every week. Much like the 1980 Cleveland Browns, whose number of close finishes earned them the nickname the “Kardiac Kids,” which has since been applied in various forms to other types of teams like this.
The Commanders’ wild-card win on Sunday night over the Buccaneers was more of the same — a dramatic finish filled with a litany of moments where they found themselves with the ball in high-leverage situations. These are the moments where they thrived in the regular season, and they found a ridiculous amount of success on third and fourth down once again to kick off their playoff run.
The Commanders ran a whopping 20 plays on third and fourth down against the Buccaneers. Twenty! For reference, the Buccaneers ran nine plays on third and fourth down in the same game. Like they have been all season, the Commanders were clutch in those scenarios, generating a first down or a touchdown on 55% of those plays, and they scored two touchdowns in those high-leverage situations. Normally, living and dying on third and fourth down is not a sustainable way to win in the NFL, but the Commanders have lived and thrived here routinely. The fact that they’re running this many plays with their backs against the wall also suggests that they have plenty of room to improve for the future.
Part of the reason the Commanders found themselves in these situations is because they struggled to run the ball on first and second down. Washington ran 29 times on first and second down, generating just 72 yards on those carries and 21.7% success rate according to TruMedia. Those are damn near wasted plays, putting more pressure on the offense to be money in big spots.
Still, Daniels delivered in such a big way (with the help of some very ill-timed Buccaneers turnovers) when the Commanders needed him too. Of the 20 third- and fourth-down plays the Commanders ran, Daniels dropped back on 16 of them. On those 16 dropbacks, Daniels converted eight first downs, two touchdowns and generated 4.8 total expected points. That’s where the game was won for Washington on offense.
It’s a tough way to exist each week, but it sure is entertaining. The Commanders will probably need a bit better production on early downs against a team like Detroit on Saturday night, but they’ve shown that nothing is impossible for this squad this season.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have hit video game status
The MVP race has come down to two quarterbacks who are playing in a legacy-defining game on Sunday with a chance at the AFC title game on the line.
What Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have done this season has been astounding — both in terms of overall production and the workload that was asked of them by their respective teams. There really is no wrong option in terms of choosing the MVP this season, but these two have their eyes set on bigger goals.
Both of these quarterbacks are capable of winning the Super Bowl, even if they haven’t done it yet. It’s hard to find their level of throwing prowess and running ability in one package, and they’re about to display that on the same field against each other for the world to see. This kind of production and skill playing against each other is rare and NFL fans should take the time to celebrate that this is happening because these are two Hall of Fame quarterbacks right in the middle of their primes.
According to TruMedia, Allen and Jackson both ranked in the top five in yards per dropback, first-down conversion rate, total expected points added on dropbacks, explosive pass rate and interception rate. While they have the benefit of playing with some great players, they are the driving forces of success for their offenses. Very few players in the history of the game have been able to blend this level of physical talent into machine-like efficiency, but Jackson and Allen have crossed into that territory.
The incoming discourse will be terrible no matter the result, as people have been geared toward tearing down one entity to celebrate another. That doesn’t have to be the case here. The peak of NFL quarterbacking seemingly resembles created players on Madden, with the winner of this game likely facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City. Cherish this. Embrace the totality of the skill level and remember that only one quarterback can actually win the Super Bowl each year.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Bills attack the Ravens after getting demolished by them in the early portion of the season, but it’s impossible to count either of these teams out now. The quarterbacks are too damn good. It’s probably too early to say whoever wins this game will win the Super Bowl considering the Chiefs, Lions and Eagles are still looming, but they’re just as credible a threat as any of those teams.
Are the Texans the worst good team or the best bad team?
A 32-12 playoff win after slogging through the season and winning the AFC South crown. Sure, why not!
The Texans, who were 3-point underdogs at home, demolished the Chargers and now head to Arrowhead Stadium this weekend to try and knock off Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Winning by 20 points in the playoffs was a statement and the performance the Texans needed after a shaky regular season. It’s still hard to decipher whether or not the Texans are a good team.
One thing is certainly good about the Texans: their defense. As they routinely showed throughout their game against the Chargers, the Texans have one of the best units in the league. This season, including their playoff win, the Texans’ defense ranks second in expected points added per play (-0.09), third in expected points added per dropback (-0.04) and first in opposing success rate (38.6%).
This side of the ball found its footing in its second year under DeMeco Ryans and they have some serious high-end talent that can make life hell for offenses.
Edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter were arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the league this season and they have superstar cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. behind them playing with consistent blanket coverage. Those three players alone give the Texans a chance to be incredibly disruptive in the passing game and force turnovers on any dropback. They have a clear talent advantage over the Chiefs’ offensive tackles and wide receivers, but Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will always have answers at this point in the season. The performance of those three players will likely dictate whether or not Houston makes it to the AFC championship game.
That’s largely because the Texans’ offense has been awful this season. Having the 31st-ranked offense in terms of success rate was not the expectation for anyone entering the campaign. They had more flashes of competency against the Chargers than they had recently. The combination of poor offensive line play and a slew of serious injuries at wide receiver had C.J. Stroud playing on All-Madden level in his second season at quarterback. It was too much of a load for him to handle, but they scraped together just enough to get to the playoffs (with a hat tip to another brutal season from their AFC South counterparts).
A quarterback and a good defense. Teams have won games with less, but the Texans’ deficiencies on offense make an upset bid in Kansas City unlikely. Still, if their trio on defense plays up to the usual standard, they’ll at least have a puncher’s chance, which is the best they can hope for at this point.
