QUINIX Sport News: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks rise as UK economy returns to growth in November

Gold prices ticked higher on Thursday, as traders brace for president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.

The spot price rose 0.3% to $2,705 per ounce, while futures rose 0.6% to $2,733 per ounce.

In the short-term, the promise of tariffs and a potential trade war out of the US have driven price rises in the yellow asset.

“When considering a long-term outlook, Trump’s policies may result in further jumps in gold prices,” said Rick Kanda, managing director of The Gold Bullion Company.

“Typically, Trump’s approach to the presidency is much more unpredictable and brings higher geopolitical risk, which can drive investors to gold. As he enters the White House later this month, two international conflicts remain ongoing in Ukraine and the Middle East, and how he reacts to these could prove pivotal to markets around the world, including gold.”

“It’s predicted that by the end of 2025, gold will rise to $3,000 per troy ounce and thanks to its increased rises throughout this year, I fully expect that this will be the case. Global central banks are expected to maintain their gold buying momentum, which will be key to gold hitting that $3,000 value mark,” added Kanda.

Managing director Paul Williams said: “Gold’s record-breaking performance in GBP reflects local and global economic conditions.

“Gold shone on the global stage throughout 2024, and the factors that led to its stellar performance don’t look to be abating in 2025.

“As the UK navigates economic challenges, many are turning to the asset as a stable and reliable investment. This trend underscores gold’s enduring appeal as a hedge against uncertainty and a means to safeguard wealth.”

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has predicted that UK growth is set to grow by 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, after flatlining in the final three months of 2024.

This is consistent with signals from the purchasing managers’ index and recent business and confidence surveys, the thinktank said.

Hailey Low, NIESR associate economist, said:

US retail sales came in slightly weaker than expected last month, up just 0.4% compared with November’s 0.8% rise. Economists had expected growth of 0.6%.

The dollar pared gains after the figures were released, and is now up 0.2% against a basket of currencies.

The prior month’s estimate was also revised higher by a tenth of a percentage point to reveal a rate of expansion of 0.8%.

• Sales of motor vehicles and parts increased by 0.7% on the month and those at furniture and home furnishing stores by 2.3%.

• Gasoline station sales jumped by 1.5% on the back of a dearer price of petrol which surged by 4.4%.

• Building materials and garden equipment sales however declined by 2.0%.

• Sales at non-store retailers were up by 0.2% on the month following a 1.7% rise in November.

• So-called ‘control group’ sales grew by a larger-than-expected 0.7%.

On the back of Thursday’s data, Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics estimated that real consumption expanded at a monthly clip of 0.4%.

Mortgage defaults have risen for an eighth consecutive quarter as UK households struggle with higher borrowing costs amid a cost of living crisis.

According to the Bank of England‘s latest Credit Conditions Survey for Q4 2024, lenders reported an increase in default rates on secured loans to households. Losses given default on these loans continued to climb in the fourth quarter of last year and are anticipated to rise further in the coming months.

The survey also revealed an increase in the availability of secured credit during the three months leading up to November 2024, with lenders forecasting a further expansion in the availability of such credit over the next quarter.

Haji added that, given the ongoing pressures of weak UK economic growth and persistent inflation, defaults could continue to increase in the months ahead.

Pepco Group (PCO.WA) said on Thursday that sales at its UK Poundland business deteriorated in the Christmas quarter, with underlying revenue falling 7.3%.

The Warsaw-listed retailer, which also owns the Pepco and Dealz brands, said group like-for-like revenue dropped 1.1% in the three months to 31 December, narrowing from 3.5% in the prior quarter.

Like-for-like revenue rose 1.4% at the Pepco fascia and 6.6% at Dealz.

The group said Poundland’s decline was largely caused by continued weakness in the clothing and general merchandise segment, alongside previously flagged challenging market conditions.

Multitasking isn’t as fruitful as we think it is. Although many of us flick between tasks during the day, it isn’t actually a productive way of getting things done.

Research suggests you’re better off slowing down and concentrating on one job at a time. Focusing on one job until it’s completed is known as monotasking – but it doesn’t always come easy to those of us who are used to trying to do multiple things at once.

“Humans are naturally drawn to multitasking because it creates the illusion of productivity,” says Dannielle Haig, a business psychologist and consultant. “Biologically, our brains are wired to seek novelty, as it historically helped us identify opportunities or threats.”

In modern life, though, this translates to checking notifications or emailing while messaging on Slack, rather than looking for predators. Instead of doing several jobs at once, what we’re really doing is shifting our attention and switching between tasks – which is addictive.

Read the full article here

BP (BP.L) is set to axe around 4,700 jobs, or over 5% of its total workforce, as part of CEO Murray Auchincloss’ efforts to reduce costs.

The company told staff on Thursday that 3,000 contractor positions will also be cut, according to a statement to Reuters.

The cuts were announced in an internal memo seen by the newswire.

Shares in Richemont (CFR.SW) have jumped almost 18% today as it revealed sales jumped 10% year-on-year to €6.2bn ($6.37bn) for the three months to end-December.

This was well ahead of analyst expectations for a 1% increase.

Analysts at JPMorgan saw the 14% growth in jewellery maisons as particularly impressive, while strong acceleration in specialist watchmakers and in the other division possibly hinted at stronger-than-expected luxury spending during the Christmas season.

The company owns Swiss watch brands Piaget, IWC and Jaeger-LeCoultre.

The positive news also boosted rivals LVMH (MC.PA) and Kering (KER.PA), with both up more than 7%. Swatch (UHR.SW) was up as much as 10%.

Bernstein analyst Luca Solca described Richemont’s sales as “an encouraging sign and a confirmation…that (the previous quarter) may have been a trough”.

Mortgage costs remained largely unchanged this week but UK homeowners are facing the prospect of higher mortgage rates after a spike in borrowing costs.

The average rate for a two-year fixed mortgage stands at 5.06%, a slight decrease from the previous 5.19%, while five-year fixed deals average 5.09%, higher than the previous 4.98%, according to data from Uswitch. This gap between two- and five-year mortgage rates is the smallest since January 2023.

Virgin Money on Monday increased its new two- and five-year fixed-rate mortgages by 0.2%, with similar hikes to some of its remortgage deals as a government bond sell-off threatened to keep interest rates higher for longer.

The bank’s 65% and 75% loan-to-value (LTV) purchase rates rose by 0.2%, while its 85% LTV five-year fixes were raised by 0.1%.

Read the full article here

The average -year fixed mortgage rate today has ticked up to 5.5% today, from 5.49% yesterday, while the five-year fix is up to 5.29% from 5.27%.

This is according to Moneyfacts.

In the bond markets, UK yields have edged up by one basis point, following yesterday’s sharp declines.

It comes as UK banks are predicting that demand for mortgages will slow in the first quarter of this year.

The Bank of England’s latest credit conditions report, released this morning, shows that lenders expect demand for secured lending for house purchases, and for remortgaging, to decrease in the January-March quarter.

That would follow increases in October-December.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) crossed the $100,000 (£81,900) threshold three times before retreating slightly on Thursday.

The rally comes amidst cooling US inflation data, as the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed signs of easing pressures, and just days ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January.

Bitcoin briefly touched $100,000 but dipped to $99,500 on Thursday, according to Coingecko.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) surpassed $3,300, Solana (SOL-USD) rose above $200, and XRP (XRP-USD) was a standout performer with an 8% daily increase and a 34% gain over the past week.

Speculation about the incoming president’s pro-crypto policies, including a proposed “strategic bitcoin reserve” for the US government, has fueled excitement among market participants. The policy would involve the government purchasing and holding significant amounts of bitcoin, akin to the strategic petroleum reserve. Advocates suggest this could spark a global crypto race, with other nations following suit.

“The Trump administration features crypto-friendly personnel, and rumours that Trump will enact wide-ranging pro-crypto executive orders have provided a short-term tailwind for bitcoin,” QCP Capital analysts said in a recent report.

Read the full article here

The UK’s trade deficit narrowed in November to £4.8bn, from a revised £5bn in October, separate figures from the Office for National Statistics showed.

The total underlying trade deficit widened £3.8bn to £10.8bn in the three months to November 2024, because of a larger fall in exports than imports.

The trade in goods deficit widened by £1.8bn to £54.1bn in the three months to November 2024, while the trade in services surplus is estimated to have narrowed by around £1.9bn to £43.3bn.

Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:

Responding to the UK’s stunted economic growth, Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said:

Housing market activity picked up as 2024 ended, and expectations for the year ahead are “solidly positive,” surveyors have reported.

A net balance of 7% of surveyors reported higher sales growth in December, up from 1% in November, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). Enquiries from new buyers were also up, though at a slower rate than in November and October.

New instructions, which measures properties placed for sale, saw a bounce, ahead of stamp duty changes in March, with a net balance of 14% reported, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases in houses being listed for sale.

House prices are now going up in every region of the UK. Northern Ireland and Scotland report the strongest price growth currently.

In the lettings market, tenant demand has stabilised with expectations of further rent rises as more landlords are selling up (leading to a lack of properties for renters).

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said:

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said:

The pound (GBPUSD=X) fell on Thursday after data showed the British economy grew more slowly than expected in November, which could give the Bank of England more room to cut interest rates this year.

Sterling edged lower following the data to trade down 0.4% on the day at $1.2193, compared with around $1.222 right before the data.

Against the euro sterling (GBPEUR=X) was down 0.2% on the day at 84.29, from 84.18 pence before the GDP numbers.

It comes after concerns about persistent inflation and debt levels saw a sharp sell-off in UK government bonds — known as gilts — last week. This pushed gilt yields, which are effectively the interest rate of return on these debt investments, higher, meaning the cost of borrowing for the government surged.

However, yields eased back on Wednesday, after separate ONS data showed that UK inflation fell unexpectedly in December to 2.5%.

On the back of this morning’s GDP data, and the UK inflation figures yesterday, markets see the probability of an interest rate cut in February at 83%, and have fully priced in two reductions by the end of the year.

The weaker-than-expected growth figures fuelled expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at its next meeting in February from 4.75% to 4.5%.

Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC, said:

The UK economy returned to growth in November, driven by the service industry.

Although it was a slightly slower rate than expected, with economists expecting 0.2% growth, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics this morning. In October, GDP fell by 0.1%.

The British economy stagnated in the three months to November compared with the three months to August.

• Services output grew by 0.1% in November after falling by 0.1% in October, revised lower from no growth, but showed no growth in the three months to November, the ONS said.

• Production output fell by 0.4%, following October’s fall of 0.6%. It was down by 0.7% in the three months to November, driven by a decline in manufacturing.

• Construction output grew by 0.4% in November, following a fall of 0.3% in October (revised up from a fall of 0.4%); construction also grew by 0.2% in the three months to November.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves reiterated her pledge to go “further and faster” to improve economic growth in order to boost living standards, declaring it was the “number one priority” for the government.

Asian markets extended a global rally on Thursday after below-forecast US inflation provided a much-needed shot of relief to investors and revived hopes for interest rate cuts this year.

The Hang Seng (^HSI) advanced 1.2% in Hong Kong while the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.3% up by the end of the session.

There were also gains in Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta which piled on more than 1%.

The Nikkei (^N225) rose just 0.2% on the day in Japan, limited by a pick-up in the yen against the dollar after the US inflation data. It also comes as investors weigh up the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its meeting next week.

Across the pond, US stocks surged on Wednesday, with all three major indexes registering their biggest daily percentage gains in more than two months, following strong earnings from major US banks.

The Dow Jones (^DJI) rose by 1.65% to 43,221.55, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped by 1.83% to 5,949.91 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) increased by 2.45% to end at 19,511.23.

These were the largest daily percentage gains for all three indexes since the day of the US election results on 6 November. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks also rose by 2%.

US Treasury yields fell to 4.651%, down from a 14-month high of 4.809% earlier in the week.

Bank share prices also rose following a swathe of strong earnings reports, with the likes of JPMorgan (JPM) reporting a record annual profit. JPMorgan shares jumped by 1.97% while Goldman Sachs (GS) soared by 6.% and Citigroup (C) shot up by 6.5%. The S&P 500’s bank index rose by 3.37% on the day.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what’s moving markets, and looking at all that’s happening across the global economy.

Here’s a quick look at what’s on the agenda for today:

• 7am: Trading updates: Taylor Wimpey, Safestore, Dunelm, Whitbread

• 7am: UK Gross Domestic Product

• 9am: Italy trade for November and final inflation for December

• 9.30am: Bank of England credit conditions survey

• 10am: Eurozone trade for November

• 1.30pm: US retail sales for December

• 1.30pm: US initial jobless claims for latest week