SportsLine’s computer model revealed its best bets for Monday’s NBA schedule, which would return over +1200 for NBA parlay picks
After a pair of four-game slates over the weekend, the Monday NBA schedule has just two 2025 NBA playoffs contests. Cavaliers vs. Heat (+8.5) will see Cleveland going for the sweep, while Warriors vs. Rockets (+4) has Golden State looking for a 3-1 lead. The latter matchup has a decisive trend, which could come in handy with NBA parlay picks since the Under has hit in every game this series. In fact, it has hit in the last seven meetings between these teams, as DraftKings Sportsbook has the total at 203, per the latest NBA odds. This could be one leg of an NBA parlay, but which other NBA bets and NBA player props could also weave their way into winning NBA bets?
SportsLine’s proven model has simulated every Monday NBA game and revealed its best NBA picks. Combining these four picks into an NBA parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook would result in a payout of +1262, which provides value given it’s more than double the model’s projected line. The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season. Now, here are the best bets for NBA parlays at FanDuel on Monday, according to the model. You can see all of the model’s NBA parlay picks here.
Optimal NBA parlay picks for Monday, April 28
Andrew Wiggins Under 2.5 assists (+112)
A gifted scorer who’s never been known for his playmaking, working against Wiggins is that he’s facing one of the league’s best defenses, with the newly-named Defensive Player of the Year in Evan Mobley. Wiggins has averaged 2.3 assists for his career, and that average drops to 1.9 assists over his last 10 games versus Cleveland. He’s also shooting just 35.5% in this series, with 11.3 points per game, so Miami may not even want the ball in his hands considering the inefficiency he’s provided. The model projects Wiggins to just about hit his career average on Monday with 2.2 assists.
Davion Mitchell Under 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-128)
Mitchell has been a bright spot for Miami since his acquisition at the trade deadline, but the Cavs’ Twin Tower duo of Mobley and Jarrett Allen presents major problems for opposing point guards. Cleveland allows the fewest rebounds per game to the position, while also ranking in the top 10 in fewest assists allowed, and sitting just outside at 11th in terms of points given up to PGs. Mitchell has already played the Cavaliers seven times this season and his PRA average is 17.9. SportsLine’s advanced model projects him to score 10.6 points, which greatly contributes to the Under 22.5 hitting on Monday.
Fred VanVleet Over 4.5 assists (+120)
The best chance for any player to hit their Overs is by simply being on the court and having opportunities to rack up stats. That describes VanVleet, who leads all players in the 2025 NBA playoffs by logging 41 minutes per game. He’s averaging 6.1 assists across 12 regular plus postseason games in which he plays 40-plus minutes, which is how many he’s played in every game this series. He’s also gone Over 4.5 assists in six of his last nine games versus Golden State, averaging 6.1 dimes over that stretch. This being a plus-money prop makes it one to jump on at sportsbooks, as VanVleet is forecasted to produce 4.9 assists.
Alperen Sengun Under 10.5 rebounds (+104)
While Sengun has gone Over 10.5 rebounds in two of three games in this series, some of that can be attributed by the extra offensive rebounds he’s corralled from Houston’s poor shooting. The Rockets are shooting 41% from the field, after making 46% of their shots in the regular season, however, the team has upped its 3-point percentage in every game of this series. If that trend continues, then there will be fewer opportunities for Sengun on the offensive glass. Additionally, Jimmy Butler’s (questionable) possible return makes Golden State much more efficient, offensively, which means fewer missed shots and fewer defensive rebounding chances. Sengun is projected to lead all players in this game in rebounds but is projected to finish with 9.5 boards.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s NBA best bets for Monday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s best NBA player prop picks from expert Mike Barner, who’s on a sizzling 145-101 roll on NBA player prop picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up over 26 units. On CBS Sports, you can see Monday’s best NBA player props to target.
