SportsLine’s model nailed its +9360 MLB HR parlay picks on Wednesday. Use its MLB picks for sportsbook promotions like the DraftKings No Sweat Home Run bet on Saturday
Angels star Mike Trout is only batting .185 so far this season, but he is tied for the MLB lead with nine home runs. He homered twice against San Francisco last Saturday before going yard against Minnesota on Friday, and he is +350 to homer against the Twins on Saturday in the MLB home run odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. Trout is facing Twins starting pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson, who has allowed three home runs in 19 innings, during the Saturday MLB schedule. Should you include Trout in your MLB home run bets? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 13-6 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It nailed all three of its home run bets on Wednesday, cashing a +9360 parlay. The model has called a HR prop in 11 of the last 18 days and is up 30.8 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +20398 odds and would pay out $2,039.84 on a $10 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+630)
Despite just getting drafted last July, the Athletics already called Kurtz up to the big leagues following his impressive showing in Triple A. He blasted seven home runs in 20 games at that level, and he has a favorable matchup against White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon. The right-hander allowed lefties to slug .478 last season and .462 so far this season.
“We don’t have a lot of MLB data to work with for Kurtz but based on his projection data that we have, there is some value for Kurtz to hit his first MLB homer tonight,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “The value comes from the model liking left-handed bats to hit HRs off of Jonathan Cannon.” FanDuel has the best price at +630.
Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+475)
Alvarez has been among the most consistent power hitters in the MLB in recent years, as he has finished with at least 30 homers in four straight seasons. He is currently behind pace to reach that mark this year, hitting just two homers in his first 24 games. Alvarez is 2-for-4 with a home run in his career against pitcher Michael Wacha, who draws the start for Kansas City on Saturday. There is poor weather expected in Kansas City, but the model still likes the value on Alvarez in this matchup.
“The weather is definitely playing a factor as to why you can get a player of Alvarez’ caliber at +475, but if he connects with the baseball, it can still go out in almost any weather,” Fetner said. BetMGM has the best price at +475, while FanDuel’s +420 line will be used for the parlay.
Marcell Ozuna, Braves (+440)
It took eight games for Ozuna to hit his first home run of the season, but he has four homers in his last 14 games. The 34-year-old went yard on Sunday against Minnesota and has six hits in his last six games. He is facing Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly, who has allowed a slightly higher slugging percentage against right-handed batters this season.
“When just looking at players most likely to homer and not taking value into account, we have Ozuna with the 5th highest percentage to homer today. Ozuna is homering in about 25% of our simulations, and we would set the line close to +300 for him to homer tonight,” Fetner said. FanDuel has this line at +440, which is significantly better than the +300 offered by Caesars.
More MLB picks for Saturday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 76-37 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Doug ‘Prop Bet Guy’ is 31-20 in his last 51 MLB prop picks, and he has locked in his pick for one pitcher’s strikeout total on Saturday.
