QUINIX Sport News: Football 301 Playbook: Lions’ injuries have jarred open the NFC — and the Packers and Vikings can pounce

How has that Packers passing game been performing since Week 10? I’m glad you asked. It’s been exceptional and the performance is matching the intent of this offense: a willingness to pound the rock, daring safeties to creep up, and then having their big-armed QB launch throws over, under and around defenses.

Since Week 10, the Packers rank first in explosive pass rate (a comical 20.2%, for reference), first in EPA per dropback, third in dropback success rate (behind only the Lions and Dolphins), and third in EPA per play (behind only the Bills and Lions) … while also featuring a top-10 efficient run game and Love taking sacks at a minuscule 3% rate (third in the NFL among qualifying QBs). The latter is an astounding stat that speaks to Love’s sack avoidance, considering how aggressive the Packers’ pass game is.

This is an offense with a formula for January, especially with pass-catchers like Watson, Kraft, Reed and Romeo Doubs all playing strong football in recent weeks (and tight end Luke Musgrave potentially returning soon). I trust this unit, even with its youth, to be up for the weekly task of facing playoff game plans, something the Packers proved capable of in last season’s playoffs.

This unit has added even more layers to its game planning (and a more dependable run game with Jacobs). It’s not just an explosive and exciting unit that lives off highlight plays. The minutiae of this offense has solidified into something reliable — and scary for opponents to defend.

Packers’ defense has also been sharp post-bye

The Packers’ defense has also started to sharpen its play after the bye week. A unit that has relied heavily on turnovers (shoutout to safety Xavier McKinney) has started to figure out a formula, and particular players, that work.

The Packers currently rank eighth in defensive DVOA and sixth in weighted DVOA, which weighs recent performance more heavily. Since Week 10, the Packers rank second in the NFL in sacks (18) and eighth in defensive success rate. They are steady against the run and pass, too. These are underlying stats that match the eye test. It’s not all perfect, but it’s a unit that feels like it has found something that works.

Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has primarily been a single-high aficionado as a play-caller throughout his career. And while he still has majored in Cover 3 in his first season as the Packers’ defensive coordinator, he also has started to use Cover 2 as his primary change-up. Actually, he’s been using Cover 2 so much since the bye — the Packers’ use of Cover 2 nearly double from 15.8% to 27.9% (easily the highest rate in the NFL) after Week 10 — that it can be more accurately categorized as another fastball in Green Bay’s arsenal.

Hafley, and especially his defensive backs, have been doing a great job of disguising their main coverage look, Cover 3, and then rotating to Cover 2 at the snap of the football. It’s a great way to dissuade defenses from trying to run the ball into what they think will be a loaded box. It’s also two coverage looks with completely different answers for the quarterback to find after the snap. The clips below against the Seahawks show how the Packers almost baited Geno Smith into a sideline throw, not anticipating that there would be a cloud (Cover 2-playing) cornerback in the flat.

And while the Packers’ pass rushers aren’t elite, they’re talented enough across the board to take advantage of any offensive line weaknesses. (There’s always at least one. Trust me. Ask the Seahawks, as the Packers’ defensive tackles took turns on poor rookie right guard Sataoa Laumea). The Packers have toned down their blitzes on late downs, going from the seventh-highest rate before the bye week to tied for 20th after Week 10. That ties into what they’re trying to do on the back end: winning with sound coverage and trusting their pass rush rather than leaving themselves susceptible to big plays.

When you throw in the play of the Packers’ defensive rookies like Edgerrin Cooper (Green Bay’s best linebacker) and Evan Williams, it’s a formula for an improving unit that looks like it can at least hold up against the better offenses as the weather gets colder.

Minnesota Vikings

Current odds to win Super Bowl: +1300

The Vikings are also an exciting team on both sides of the ball, featuring the dice rolls of Sam Darnold and a defense that keeps quarterbacks and offensive line coaches from getting any sleep in the week leading up to a game.

Unlike the Packers, who are essentially locked into a wild-card spot, the Vikings have plenty to play for over the final three weeks. Their 12-2 record not only puts them in a position to snatch the division title from the Lions, but also a chance to nab the No. 1 seed with all of their remaining games being against NFC teams (Seahawks, Packers and a pivotal Week 18 matchup against the Lions).

It’s not a shock that a team with Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison would have an explosive passing attack. And the Vikings, sure enough, rank third in explosive pass rate this season. What is notable is how much better the Vikings’ run game has been this season compared to years past.

They’re running the ball at a higher rate than they ever have before under head coach Kevin O’Connell. Their 42.3% designed run rate ranks 14th this season, significantly above their 35.1% and 33.9% run rates of the previous two years that were among the lowest in the NFL. I like to attribute this to the Vikings adding the dynamic Aaron Jones this offseason and finally being able to take advantage of the soft boxes and cloud coverages (i.e. Cover 2 and Cover 6) that the Vikings get on a weekly basis because of the threat Jefferson provides.

A stat that I have liked to look at this year to encapsulate just how much more explosive the Vikings’ run game has been is the max speed that Minnesota’s running backs have reached on their runs. Vikings RBs have 58 runs in which they reached a max speed of 15 mph or greater in 2024, hitting that mark on 18% of their runs. In 2023, Vikings RBs had only 30 such runs the entire season, a 9.2% rate that’s essentially half of what (primarily) Jones has been doing this season.

And their run attack’s efficiency has seen an uptick as well. The Vikings are currently 10th in early down rushing success rate on RB runs, with their overall rushing success rate jumping nearly 2% from the previous two seasons. This has been key for this offense because it gives the Vikings the balance that is necessary to win in the playoffs as teams get hyperspecific with their gameplans and do their best to take away an opponent’s main method of production. It’s also a way to help keep Darnold from spiraling into his worst tendencies.

Sam Darnold can unleash in this Vikings offense

Those tendencies, however, also make this Vikings team so dangerous, especially in the sudden-death world of the NFL playoffs. Darnold is willing and able to try just about every throw. Sure, he will take sacks, and he will get punished at times when he tries things he shouldn’t. But when Darnold is clicking, it’s a fireworks factory.

The Vikings’ passing game can rapidly get the team back into games and Minnesota can barrage opponents with its downfield passing attack. When paired with the Vikings’ bolo punch defense, it can lead to huge runs that are more akin to a basketball team that uses a full-court press the entire game. Sacks don’t cripple this offense as much as other teams because of O’Connell’s willingness to let Darnold shoot himself out of any problem. That keeps defensive backs on their toes even in third-and-extra-long situations.

Darnold has been an upgrade from Kirk Cousins

Every metric with Darnold behind center this year has been better than when Kirk Cousins was at the helm. Some of this is because of the offensive improvement (Hockenson, Jones and Addison) and O’Connell’s own growth as an offensive play designer. But Darnold’s YOLO mindset actually fits a Vikings team that tries to pillage teams like their namesake.

While Cousins throws a beautiful deep ball (or at least did), the Vikings’ explosive pass rate has jumped nearly 4% this season. Darnold has also been more efficient as a passer, too, with a dropback success rate also jumping from 45.6% on snaps with Cousins the previous two years to 48.6% this season with Darnold, which ranks seventh in the NFL.

This completely matches how this Vikings’ offense feels. Which is dangerous. Sure, there are moments of too much aggression from this team, but at any time the lid might blow open and there’s Justin Jefferson catching a 97-yard touchdown. Like the Packers, this is a formula to win in January. A reliable run game that makes defenses honor rushing plays and a passing attack that can create chunks and first downs in any situation.