Jamey’s favorite plays on the divisional round DFS slate
Wild-card weekend had some good moments, but there were too many blowout victories for the Rams, Ravens, Bills, Texans, and Eagles, who all won by at least 12 points. Only the Commanders-Buccaneers game was close, with Washington winning 23-20.
The divisional round will hopefully have better games, and everyone is looking forward to Baltimore at Buffalo. But Houston at Kansas City, Washington at Detroit, and the Rams at Philadelphia should be exciting as well.
With that in mind, let’s go over the best and worst values on DraftKings and FanDuel for the divisional round. I’ll also show you two lineup suggestions for this weekend as well.
The wild-card round was successful for us in DFS. Now, let’s keep that momentum going for the divisional round.
For more of my DFS plays for this week’s divisional round, click on this link to SportsLine. And good luck to your DFS lineups for this week.
Quarterbacks
Good values
Jared Goff $6,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel
Goff averaged 24.6 Fantasy points at home this season, and he’s worth trusting in this matchup against Washington. The Commanders have held five quarterbacks in a row to fewer than 20 Fantasy points, but that group includes Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, Michael Penix, Trey Lance, and Baker Mayfield, who scored 19 Fantasy points in the wild-card round. Goff will end that streak this week, and you have plenty of options to build a Lions stack on either site.
Patrick Mahomes $6,000 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel
Mahomes was hot in his past two games with a combined 580 passing yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions, along with 45 rushing yards and a touchdown against Houston and Pittsburgh. Against the Texans in Week 16, Mahomes was 28-of-41 passing for 260 yards and a touchdown, and he added 33 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Texans were awesome against Justin Herbert last week in holding him to seven Fantasy points (he had four interceptions), but I’m not counting on Houston to limit Mahomes this week.
Bad value
Jalen Hurts $6,800 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel
Hurts was solid in the victory against Green Bay last week with 131 passing yards and two touchdowns and six carries for 36 yards. He scored 21 Fantasy points, which was just the third time he’s topped 20 points in his past six healthy games. Against the Rams in Week 12, Hurts was held to 179 passing yards and one touchdown and 39 rushing yards, and the Rams have held six of their past eight quarterbacks to 17 Fantasy points or less. I don’t think Hurts will justify his cost in this game.
Matthew Stafford $5,200 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel
Stafford had a solid game in the victory against Minnesota with 209 passing yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, but that was his first game with at least 20 Fantasy points since Week 14. The Eagles have held five of their past six quarterbacks to 13 Fantasy points or less, including the past three to single digits in Fantasy points. I’m not expecting a big performance from Stafford in this matchup on the road.
Running backs
Good values
David Montgomery $5,700 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel
Montgomery is expected to return for the divisional round after missing the past three games with a knee injury. He’s listed here for his pricing on FanDuel, which is incredible. He is the No. 31 running back, behind guys like Carson Steele, Keaton Mitchell, Patrick Ricard, and Will Shipley. Expect Montgomery to be in plenty of lineups, and he scored at least 13.9 Fantasy points on FanDuel (15.4 points on DraftKings) in four games in a row before getting hurt in Week 15.
Austin Ekeler $5,100 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel
The Lions struggled with pass-catching running backs to close the season, and Ekeler could be heavily involved this week for the Commanders in a shootout. In Detroit’s past four games against Buffalo, Chicago, San Francisco, and Minnesota, the Lions allowed those backfields to get 23 catches for 297 yards and two touchdowns on 25 targets. Ty Johnson, D’Andre Swift, Isaac Guerendo, and Aaron Jones all had at least three receptions for 30 yards, and Ekeler just caught three passes for 26 yards on four targets against Tampa Bay.
Kareem Hunt $5,000 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel
We’re expecting the Chiefs to use Hunt and Isiah Pacheco in tandem for this game against Houston, but Hunt seems like the safer bet to lead the team in touches. In Week 16 against Houston, Hunt had 11 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown and two catches for 24 on three targets. He also scored at Pittsburgh in Week 17 with nine carries for 20 yards. Hunt isn’t one of my favorite plays this weekend, but if the Chiefs have a big lead he could kill the clock in the fourth quarter.
Justice Hill $4,800 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel
Hill had a big game against Buffalo in Week 4 with six catches for 78 yards and a touchdown on six targets, along with four carries for 18 yards. Buffalo is No. 6 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and No. 2 in receptions allowed to the position with 92. While Derrick Henry will be tough for Buffalo to stop, look for Hill to also be a factor in the passing game, especially if Zay Flowers (knee) remains out. Hill had four catches for 13 yards and a touchdown on four targets against Pittsburgh last week, along with six carries for 12 yards.
Bad values
Kyren Williams $6,900 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel
Williams scored a touchdown against Philadelphia in Week 12, but he only had 16 carries for 72 yards and no targets. The Eagles are No. 2 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, and they have allowed just six total touchdowns to the position all season, including the playoffs. Williams should still have the chance to be productive in this matchup, especially with Philadelphia linebacker Nakobe Dean (knee) out. But given his cost, Williams might be overpriced and is someone to avoid.
Joe Mixon $6,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel
Mixon was great against the Chargers in the wild-card round with 25 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown, along with one catch for 13 yards on two targets, including a lost fumble. It was his most yards and first touchdown since Week 13, but I’m not expecting another productive outing for Mixon at Kansas City. He faced the Chiefs in Week 16 and was limited to 14 carries for 57 yards and one catch for 14 yards on two targets. Kansas City is healthy with Chris Jones (calf) back, and Mixon is an easy avoid at his price, especially given the opponent.
Brian Robinson Jr. $5,300 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel
The Lions have struggled with running backs down the stretch as they’ve dealt with injuries, and Josh Jacobs in Week 14 (24.6 PPR points) and James Cook in Week 15 (26.3) had huge games against Detroit. But Robinson isn’t worth trusting in this matchup. He only had 10 carries for 16 yards against Tampa Bay and four catches for 22 yards on five targets in the wild-card round. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 13, and he’s been held to 40 total yards or less in three of his past four outings. I’d rather save money on Robinson and use Ekeler instead given his role in the passing game. Wide receivers
Wide receivers
Good values
Jameson Williams $6,100 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel
Williams has scored a touchdown in three of his past four games, and he has at least five catches in six of his past seven outings, including three in a row. You want parts of the Lions offense this week, even though Washington finished No. 9 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. Williams has either a touchdown or at least 75 receiving yards in five of seven home games this year.
Xavier Worthy $5,200 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel
Worthy faced Houston in Week 16, and he had seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets and three carries for 10 yards. He comes into this game with 31 targets for 21 catches, 190 yards, and two touchdowns in his past three games, along with eight carries for 50 yards and a touchdown. I expect him to stay hot in this matchup with the Texans at home.
Khalil Shakir $5,000 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel
Shakir had another solid outing in the wild-card win against Denver with six catches for 61 yards on six targets. He didn’t have a great game at Baltimore in Week 4 with four catches for 62 yards on five targets, but he should get plenty of chances to make plays since he has at least six targets in 11 games in a row. He only has two touchdowns over that span, but he has at least six catches in seven of those outings and at least 60 receiving yards five times.
Rashod Bateman $4,900 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel
Zay Flowers (knee) appears unlikely to play Sunday at Buffalo, which should allow Bateman the chance to remain a focal point for Lamar Jackson. Bateman had two catches for 24 yards and a touchdown on two targets against Pittsburgh last week, and he now has a touchdown in four of his past five games. He only had one catch for 23 yards against the Bills in Week 4, but I’ll take a chance on Bateman in this matchup if Flowers remains sidelined.
Hollywood Brown $4,200 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel
Brown has played two games since coming back from his preseason shoulder injury, and he has 15 targets in those outings. Against Houston in Week 16, Brown had five catches for 45 yards on eight targets, and it’s clear the Chiefs were trying to get Brown involved to be ready for the playoffs. He’s cheap enough that he’s worth using given his upside as a prime target for Patrick Mahomes.
Dyami Brown $3,900 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel
We’ll see if last week was a fluke or not, but Brown had five catches for 89 yards and a touchdown on five targets in the wild-card win at Tampa Bay. It was his best game of the season, so be careful chasing past production, and Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) might be the better option. It’s a great matchup since Detroit finished the season No. 2 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and one of these guys should step up to help Terry McLaurin this week.
Bad values
A.J. Brown $7,000 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel
Brown continues to deal with this lingering knee injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday, and he was limited Thursday. He only caught one pass for 10 yards on three targets in the wild-card win against Green Bay, and his price plus fear of injury is why he’s on this list. That said, if healthy, he could go off against the Rams, and he had six catches for 109 yards and a touchdown on seven targets against Los Angeles in Week 12. I’d lean more toward DeVonta Smith ($5,600 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) than Brown this week given the cost for both.
Cooper Kupp $5,400 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel
Kupp had a solid game against the Eagles in Week 12 with eight catches for 60 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets, but it feels like that game was years ago. He only had one catch for 29 yards on one target in the victory against the Vikings last week, and he played just 29 of 53 snaps. In his past four games, Kupp has combined for only five catches for 82 yards on 10 targets. It’s hard to trust him this week given his recent lack of production.
Amari Cooper $4,400 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel
Cooper was a non-factor in Buffalo’s wild-card win against Denver with two catches for 8 yards on three targets. He hasn’t been a strong contributor for the Bills, and it’s tough to trust him now against Baltimore. In nine games for Buffalo, Cooper has two touchdowns and five games with 12 yards or less.
Keon Coleman $4,100 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel
Coleman caught one pass for 5 yards on three targets against Denver, and it’s tough to trust him in this matchup with Baltimore. He had three catches for 51 yards on four targets at the Ravens in Week 4, and he has one touchdown since Week 8 and one outing with more than 31 receiving yards over that span.
John Metchie III $3,800 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel
Metchie is listed here mostly because of his price on FanDuel. He’s more expensive than Cooper, Zaccheaus, Coleman, Dyami Brown, and Curtis Samuel, and I’d rather use all of those guys. It’s great that he got eight targets in the wild-card win against the Chargers, but he finished with four catches for 28 yards. He should see an expanded role again with Tank Dell (knee) out, but Metchie isn’t worth trusting in this matchup at Kansas City.
Tight ends
Good values
Mark Andrews $4,500 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel
Andrews had a quiet game in the wild-card round against Pittsburgh with two catches for 27 yards on three targets, and he had no catches against Buffalo in Week 4 on one target. But I’ll still count on Andrews this week, especially with Zay Flowers (knee) likely out. Prior to last week, Andrews had scored a touchdown in six games in a row, including three games over that span with at least six targets. He should continue to be a go-to option for Lamar Jackson against the Bills.
Sam LaPorta $4,200 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel
LaPorta ended the regular season on fire with at least 63 receiving yards or a touchdown in four games in a row. Over that span, LaPorta had 32 targets for 24 catches, 281 yards, and two touchdowns, and he should stay hot in this matchup with Washington. The Commanders are among the league leaders in touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends with eight, and hopefully, LaPorta can find the end zone at home.
Zach Ertz $4,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel
Ertz didn’t do much in the wild-card win against Tampa Bay with two catches for 23 yards on four targets, but I like his chances against the Lions this week. Detroit has struggled against tight ends of late with three tight ends either scoring a touchdown or going over 100 receiving yards in the past five games. Prior to the playoffs, Ertz had scored a touchdown in five of his previous seven games, with six touchdowns over that span.
Dallas Goedert $3,900 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel
Goedert missed practice Thursday with an illness, but he’s expected to play against the Rams. He just led the Eagles in targets in the wild-card victory against Green Bay with six, and he finished with four catches for 47 yards and a touchdown. It was his first touchdown since Week 13, and we’ll see how he does against the Rams in the divisional round. He had minimal production against the Rams in Week 12 with four catches for 19 yards on five targets, but Los Angeles has struggled with tight ends of late. Going back to Week 17, four tight ends have scored against the Rams in their past three games, and Goedert could benefit if A.J. Brown (knee) is not 100 percent.
Isaiah Likely $3,500 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel
Likely had a solid game against the Steelers in the wild-card round with three catches for 53 yards on four targets, and he should benefit again if Zay Flowers (knee) is out. Likely only had one catch for 26 yards on two targets against Buffalo in Week 4, but I like Likely in this matchup based on his cost and opportunity due to Flowers.
Bad values
Dalton Kincaid $3,700 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel
Kincaid did OK in the wild-card victory against Denver with three catches for 47 yards on three targets, but it’s hard to expect much more production from him given his body of work this season. He only had two touchdowns this year, and he had five catches for 47 yards on seven targets at Baltimore in Week 4. That was one of 11 games with fewer than 50 receiving yards, and Kincaid is tough to trust in this matchup with the Ravens.
Dalton Schultz $3,300 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel
Schultz had a big game at Kansas City in Week 16 with five catches for 45 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. It was one of two touchdowns for Schultz this year, but I’m not counting on him to have another quality outing in the rematch. While the Chiefs finished the regular season at No. 4 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, Schultz was just outplayed by Cade Stover in the wild-card victory against the Chargers. Stover had four catches for 28 yards on four targets, and Schultz had two catches for 23 yards on four targets. He’s tough to trust, even at a cheap cost.
