It might be time to turn the page on deGrom as a Fantasy ace
The problem with high expectations is that a player can be good and still be a disappointment. I worry that’s where we are with Jacob deGrom so far in 2025.
He had another good start Thursday night against the Athletics, limiting them to two runs on six hits with six strikeouts in 5.1 innings of work. That’s a good start, and he’s now had three good starts in his first five, leading to a 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He’s been good!
But we haven’t really seen a great start from deGrom. His season high for strikeouts is just seven, a mark 67 different pitchers have bested at least once so far this season. It’s only a five-game sample size, sure, but this is Jacob deGrom we’re talking about. In his first five starts in 2023 before his season came to an end with an elbow injury, he had three starts of at least nine strikeouts; in 2022, he had at least eight strikeouts in nine out of 11 starts. The last time deGrom went five straight starts without at least eight strikeouts was May and June of 2017.
But still, it should be pointed out that Jacob deGrom hasn’t been bad. He has a 3.33 ERA, and his xERA entering Thursday’s start was 3.29; he’s generating plenty of weak contact and doing a mostly solid job avoiding walks, even if the strikeouts and whiffs haven’t been there. He just hasn’t been the dominant, rotation-carrying force you drafted him to be.
And it’s mostly a fastball problem. He had just one whiff on 14 swings against his four-seamer Thursday, which will lower his 20% whiff rate with the pitch coming in. Going back to 2023, he had a 35% whiff rate with his four-seamer and hasn’t had a whiff rate below 26.9% with the pitch since 2016. The rest of the arsenal still looks strong, but deGrom’s fastball just isn’t the same sitting at 96.7 mph (where he was Thursday and where he’s been for the season) as when he was averaging around 99 mph; but it also hasn’t been the same pitch it was when he was sitting around 96 in 2018 and prior.
The unanswerable question here is whether deGrom is going to be worth his draft price if his production doesn’t ramp up from here. You took the chance on deGrom this draft season because, despite the injury risk, he could carry your pitching staff when he was on the mound – folks were quick to point out that he was the No. 3 starter in Fantasy in 2021 in just 92 innings of work, as a way to justify spending an early-round pick on a pitcher who hasn’t thrown even 100 innings since 2019.
If pitching at a lower velocity level helps keep deGrom healthy enough to throw 150 innings, the trade-off will probably have been worth it. You’d like more strikeouts from a top-15 SP pick – a win would also be nice as May approaches, too – but if deGrom pitches like this and stays healthy, you won’t likely regret the pick, even if it won’t likely win you your league, either.
But the deGrom pick was supposed to be all about upside, and he doesn’t look like that guy right now. He doesn’t look bad, but he doesn’t look like the best pitcher in baseball anymore. That’s a disappointment, no matter how you spin it.
Here’s what else you need to know from Thursday’s action around MLB:
Friday’s top waiver-wire targets
USATSI
Camilo Doval, RP, Giants (24%) – It’s not his job yet. Manager Bob Melvin made that clear after Doval got his second save in a row Thursday, saying that Walker would get the save chance Friday if one arose. This was just a day off for Walker after his recent struggles. But Doval is the more accomplished of the Giants’ two late-inning options, and he now has five saves on the season, as many as Walker. That doesn’t mean Doval is the better pitcher, or is likely to be the closer moving forward. But Walker hasn’t been nearly as sharp this season as he was during his breakout last year, and Doval is clearly in the mix, so if you’re speculating on saves, I think you have to consider Doval right now.
Jeff McNeil, 2B, Mets (17%) – The Mets are actually going to try McNeil out in center field, it seems. He played multiple games on his rehab assignment there, though with Brett Baty optioned to Triple-A, I would still expect McNeil to get most of his chances at second base. But some added positional versatility would help keep him in the lineup. Now he just has to prove he’s still worth the trouble. He mostly wasn’t last season, but he showed signs of life late, hitting .289/.376/.547, which coincided with a jump in bat speed. An oblique injury derailed McNeil’s spring, which is always concerning, but if he can tap back into what he showed in the second half last season, there could still be life left in this bat.
Jordan Beck, OF, Rockies (5%) – Beck really hasn’t done very much with his chances in the majors so far. Entering play Thursday, he is just a .185/.248/.270 hitter with a 36% strikeout rate in 67 games in the majors. You’re right, “hasn’t done very much” is being kind – he’s done a lot, and almost all of it has been bad. But with Zac Veen sent back to Triple-A following his own struggles, Beck is in line for another opportunity, and he took advantage Thursday with a two-homer game against the Royals. It’s a long shot that he ends up being useful in most Fantasy leagues, but Beck is a career .278/.372/.499 hitter in his minor-league career, and he still calls Coors Field home. Betting on Rockies hitters has been a pretty bad idea in recent years, but Beck’s power/speed combo could matter.
Tony Gonsolin, SP, Dodgers (20%) – Gonsolin was a must-start pitcher back in 2021 and 2022, but he hasn’t pitched in the majors since having Tommy John surgery at the end of a disastrous 2023. His velocity has actually been back up to 2022 levels on his rehab assignment, so while we do need to stress patience, he’s certainly worth a look in leagues where you have a roster spot to play with. In fact, if you have an IL spot free, go ahead and add him now – you won’t have to activate Gonsolin until after next week, so you’ll get a free look at how his first start goes before you have to make a decision.
Thursday’s standouts
Garrett Crochet, Red Sox vs. SEA: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 9 K – Crochet has had a few starts so far where he hasn’t quite looked right, and then you look up and it’s a 1.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP with 44 strikeouts in 37 innings. There’s still a part of me that worries about how Crochet is going to look as the innings rack up later in the season, but there’s a part of me that can find something to worry about with anything. I don’t think you should listen to that part of me. Crochet rules.
Cole Ragans, Royals vs. COL: 3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – This was a pretty concerning performance, though the fact that Ragans left with a groin injury might actually make it slightly less concerning – at least assuming the groin injury is relatively minor. Granted, we don’t really know that right now, so I guess our concern level should be pretty high right now, just not because of the performance. If it ends up being more or less a non-issue in the long run, I’ll still have a lot of faith in Ragans, but obviously, we need to know what the extent of the injury is before we can say that. So, stay tuned, I guess.
Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks vs. TB: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – He still doesn’t look anything close to the best version of himself yet. Burnes is clearly tinkering with his cutter right now, and he was getting a bit less induced vertical break with the pitch than his previous outings – he’s not where he needs to be with that pitch, but hopefully this helps get him on the right path. He commanded the pitch well and made it through the start with the rest of his arsenal not really doing much to help. I think at this point, you just keep starting Burnes and hope he starts showing more than just flashes of his pre-2024 self. But my faith is starting to wane.
Bryan Woo, Mariners @BOS: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – I love watching Bryan Woo pitch. It’s so much fun to watch a guy who is in total control of his fastballs, to the point where it sometimes feels like the secondaries are just a bonus – he got 11 of his 16 whiffs on his fastballs in this one. The thing I love about Woo, though, is that it’s not like the secondaries are bad pitches – his slider and sweeper both have whiff rates over 26%, which is firmly in “good enough” territory. He’s not an elite strikeout pitcher, but as long as he stays healthy, he’s going to remain a must-start pitcher.
Mackenzie Gore, Nationals vs. BAL: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Gore is pretty fun to watch pitch right now, too. His fastball wasn’t great in this one, but the rest of the arsenal picked him up, especially that new, harder slider, which had six whiffs on 10 pitches while being used exclusively against lefties. He’s clearly put in work to solve what has been his biggest problem in the past, generating significantly better returns against lefties than we’ve ever seen from him before. Consistency has always been a problem for Gore, but he just looks fantastic right now, with four quality starts of two runs or fewer and at least seven strikeouts in his first six tries. He might be breaking out for real this time.
Landen Roupp, Giants vs. MIL: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – Roupp’s curveball is his best pitch, and it’s a beauty. But Roupp’s reliance on that curveball is also the source of my concerns about him, which cropped up here. It’s a big, loopy curve, thrown at 77 mph on average and with 50-plus inches of vertical break, which explains why hitters have such a hard time with it. But it’s also kind of all he’s got, and he knows it – he threw it almost half the time Thursday. That’s always going to be a tough pitch to command consistently, and if it isn’t at its absolute best, Roupp is going to struggle with walks. I think Roupp is an awesome talent, and the good starts are going to be amazing when he’s spinning that curveball the way he can. But I do worry that consistency is going to be a bigger issue than most Fantasy players can stomach.
Cade Povich, Orioles @WAS: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Povich continues to flash just enough to be worth our attention, if not necessarily worth being added in most leagues. He’s been mostly pretty bad, but then he has starts like this where you can squint and see a useful pitcher. His sweeper looked great in this one, but he’s still not generating the kind of chase rates or whiffs with the rest of his arsenal that he probably needs.
Shane Smith, White Sox @MIN: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Smith is clearly talented. That was clear in his minor-league numbers, and it’s clear when you watch him pitch right now. But I’m also not sure he’s cut out to be a starter in the long term. He has yet to allow a run in the first four innings of any of his starts, while he has allowed seven runs in 7.1 innings of work across the fifth and sixth innings. He made it through the fifth unscathed in this one, but he also had his usual late-start velocity dip, and you can understand why the White Sox were happy to pull him after 82 pitches and five innings. He’s still young enough to build up the arm strength to go deep consistently, but between that and the poor supporting cast around him … well, just be happy you got the win out of him this time around. Those will be hard to come by, and it’s going to limit his ceiling, which is only so high to begin with anyways. He’s an interesting streamer, but probably still just a streamer. If you want a reason to watch his next start, he does get to take on the team that drafted him and let him go in the Rule 5 draft, the Brewers.
Tyler Anderson, Angels vs. PIT: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K – Anderson has stretched like this every season. Last year, it was a 2.47 ERA in April and May and a 2.96 ERA as late as the end of July. It always falls apart eventually, usually in spectacular fashion. I don’t mind streaming him, but I have no expectation that Anderson is going to keep this up in the long run. But next week in Seattle? Yeah, that could work.
Tobias Myers, Brewers @SF: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – Myers was pretty useful for Fantasy last season, but in ways that never seemed sustainable – his 3.00 ERA was a lot prettier than his mediocre 4.22 xERA. I’m not saying he can’t be useful this season, but he’s the kind of pitcher who needs to prove something before I’ll be interested, and he certainly didn’t in his first start. I’m not chasing him.
Chase Dollander, Rockies @KC: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – I want it to happen, but it’s just not. At least not right now. I don’t think it’s a lack of talent on Dollander’s part, but if you can’t trust him to even be usable in a road start against a slumping offense, I don’t think there’s much reason to keep him around. It’s frustrating because the stuff is clearly there, but he isn’t putting it to good use yet. This isn’t the last we’ve seen of Dollander, but I don’t think he needs to be rostered in most Fantasy leagues at this point.
News and notes
Ketel Marte has begun a running program. Still no word on a rehab assignment but he’s working his way back from that hamstring injury and seems to be making progress.
CJ Abrams was activated from the IL after overcoming a hip injury.
Royce Lewis will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Friday. He missed the start of the season with a left hamstring strain and will probably be on rehab assignment for at least a week to make up for lost time. But I still believe he can be a must-start Fantasy option.
Tyler Stephenson began a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday. He’s worth a look if you need a second catcher in a two-catcher league and he’s available, but he’s pretty fringe-y in a one-catcher format.
The Cardinals will evaluate Ivan Herrera‘s progress and timetable for a rehab assignment when they return home Friday. He’s working his way back from a bone bruise in his knee.
Speaking of the Cardinals, Brendan Donovan is expected to return to the lineup Friday. He missed two games after he had a rib pop out of place.
Tyler O’Neill was out of the lineup due to neck soreness. It’s the same injury that kept him out for two games last week, so that’s a little concerning.
The Twins placed Willie Castro on the IL with a right oblique strain.
Kumar Rocker was placed on the IL with a right shoulder impingement. Sounds like Jack Leiter could be back soon from his blister as he made a rehab start Thursday.
The Twins optioned David Festa back to Triple-A on Thursday. Pablo Lopez is expected to return this weekend and they don’t want to use a six-man rotation, so Festa joins Zebby Matthews back in Triple-A. Festa is talented, but I do hope we see Matthews the next time they need a starter.
The Rays placed Jack Mangum on the IL with a left groin strain.
