How excited should you be about these Rockies up and comers?
How much can Coors Field cover up for a hitter’s limitations? And how much can it hide a pitcher’s greatness? Those are the key questions facing Fantasy Baseball players looking to make a big splash on waivers this week, as the top two players available are both recently promoted Rockies top prospects: Outfielder Zac Veen and pitcher Chase Dollander.
And, right off the top, it’s worth noting that Dollander is clearly the better prospect of the two. He was a consensus top-25 prospect in baseball entering the season, with Baseball America ranking him eighth overall; Geen, on the other hand, wasn’t a top-100 prospect on any major publication’s preseason list entering the season, last appearing in 2023, before injuries derailed his path to the majors. When it comes to talent, I don’t think anyone would quibble with me saying Veen is in a different class.
And if you want to argue that should be all that matters, that Dolander should clearly be the top waiver-wire priority, I get it. Predicting the performance of young guys is incredibly hard, but betting on talent when the gap is as big as it seems to be between these two is probably the right call. And it would be an easy call to make if they played for any other team in the majors.
But we’re talking about the most extreme environment in baseball, here. Coors Field isn’t a good place to hit because it has hitter-friendly dimensions, like Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark; on the contrary, Coors Field has, on average, the deepest fences in the majors! But the ball literally moves differently there; pitches don’t get as sharp a break in the thin air in Denver, and that same thin air also doesn’t drag the ball down as much when hitters hit in. Add in that the outfielders have to cover more ground thanks to those deep fences, and it’s a perfect storm to create the best hitting environment in baseball, even after the introduction of humidors to store the baseball.
Is that enough to tilt things back Veen’s way?
Not for me. Dollander has his work cut out for him playing half his games at Coors Field, but the thing is: Half his games won’t
be at Coors Field, too! And he might just be a must-start pitcher there, as he showed by limiting the Padres to two runs over 5.2 innings of work in San Diego Saturday. He made a couple of mistakes, so he wasn’t perfect, but Dollander did strike out seven against a lineup that rarely strikes out, making his 10 swinging strikes on 93 pitches look even better. I think Dollander is going to be useful in the right situations, at the very least.
Whereas with Veen, while playing half his games at Coors Field should help, that’s no guarantee. He played in an extremely friendly offensive environment at Triple-A last season and still hit .220/.281/.476, and we just have a very limited track record where Veen has truly hit like a difference maker – injuries have played a part in that, but it’s still true that his minor-league track record does not suggest he’ll be an immediate star.
That’s not to say he’s not worth adding, especially in categories leagues, where Veen’s speed will play up. But he hasn’t made an impact yet, striking out eight times in his first 23 trips to the plate, with just one double among his three hits. Veen is a talented young player, but he has a volatile skill set even beyond the injuries, and especially in points leagues, I’m not sure he’s likely to matter.
In categories leagues and any league with five starting outfield spots, I’ll look to add Veen with a bid around $100 in FAB leagues this week, but I’ll be a bit more aggressive with Dollander. It’s a bet on the better talent, and that’ll win out for me even with their home park putting Dollander at a disadvantage.
Here’s who else we’ll be looking to add heading into Week 4:
Week 4 Waiver Targets
Catchers
Francisco Alvarez, Mets (50%) – Alvarez will likely need a few weeks out on his rehab assignment, but he’s already out there playing games since Wednesday of last week, so he’ll be back before you know it. I wish I felt more confident that we were going to get difference-making production out of the 23-year-old former top prospect after he struggled to hit for power last season, but it’s still a reasonably cheap bet on upside at a position without much of it.
Deep-league target: Matt Mervis, Marlins (11%) – We’ve got a few deep-league options to consider at first base. Ty France is swinging the bat well these days, and Josh Bell has strong underlying numbers and a trip to Coors Field coming up. But if you’re looking for more than just a short-term option, Matt Mervis is probably the name to look at. He probably strikes out too much to keep it up, but we’re starting to see flashes of the guy who was really good at Triple-A now that he’s getting a real chance with the Marlins. He hit his sixth homer of the season Sunday, his third game in a row with a long ball, and he’s sporting an elite 94.9 mph average exit velocity. The Marlins had a lot of “throw stuff on the wall and see if it sticks” guys on their roster out of camp, and it looks like Mervis might stick.
First Base
Ben Rice, Yankees (75%) – We’re at the point where Rice needs to just be playing everyday for the Yankees. He’s absolutely crushing the ball, with a 97.9 mph average exit velocity, and he’s already topped last year’s max exit velo, too. Rice doesn’t need outlier raw power to matter as a pull-oriented lefty in Yankee Stadium, but it certainly won’t hurt. I think there’s a chance he’s a legitimate 30-homer guy here.
Deep-league target: Matt Mervis, Marlins (11%) – We’ve got a few deep-league options to consider at first base. Ty France is swinging the bat well these days, and Josh Bell has strong underlying numbers and a trip to Coors Field coming up. But if you’re looking for more than just a short-term option, Mervis is probably the name to look at. He probably strikes out too much to keep it up, but we’re starting to see flashes of the guy who was really good at Triple-A now that he’s getting a real chance with the Marlins. He hit his sixth homer of the season Sunday, his third game in a row with a long ball, and he’s sporting an elite 94.9 mph average exit velocity. The Marlins had a lot of “throw stuff on the wall and see if it sticks” guys on their roster out of camp, and it looks like Mervis might stick.
Second base
Christopher Morel, Rays (51%) – Did the Rays do it again? Morel has long had the underlying tools to be a difference maker for Fantasy, but he hasn’t been able to put it together consistently. And, I’ll be honest, I don’t really think that’s what’s happening here, given his 35.7% strikeout rate. However, Morel has always been useful when he gets hot, the underlying data does suggest he’s very locked in – his expected wOBA is .343, right around where he was in 2023.
Deep-league target: Thomas Saggese, Cardinals (7%) – With Masyn Winn on the IL with a back injury, Saggese is in line for plenty of playing time with the Cardinals, and he’s off to a good start, going 8 for 17 with a homer in his first six games. He probably isn’t a difference maker, but he’s put up decent numbers in the minors, including 22 homers and 10 steals in 143 career games at Triple-A. Let’s see if he can tap into that a little bit.
Third base
Connor Norby, Marlins (39%) – Part of why Norby’s spring oblique injury was so frustrating is because Norby has a lot riding on how well he plays to start this season. He looked like a potential building block for the Marlins last season, homering seven times in 36 games. There was a lot to be skeptical about there, but he was also plenty productive in his minor-league career, so I didn’t want to write it off entirely. He’s starting his minor-league rehab assignment now and homered in his first game back, so he should be back sometime next week and carries some upside with him.
Deep-league target: Kyle Farmer, Rockies (3%) – Farmer’s prominent role on a Rockies team heading nowhere fast doesn’t make a lot of sense, but hey, he’s a major-league caliber hitter on the Rockies, so there’s at least some room for batting average help here. Farmer won’t likely give you much more than a useful batting average at home, but that matters in deeper leagues.
Shortstop
Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks (33%) – The Diamondbacks didn’t initially call Lawlar up in the aftermath of Ketel Marte‘s hamstring injury, but here’s something I noticed: When Marte got hurt, Lawlar has played just two of his first five games at second base. In eight games since, he has played five times at second base, including four straight at one point this week. He’s hitting .286/.403/.446 at Triple-A, and I wonder if a call-up is looming. He has significant upside as a power/speed threat, and the Diamondbacks are clearly grooming him for a super utility role. I think we’ll see him soon.
Deep-league targets: Chase Meidroth, White Sox (14%) – Meidroth is a weird little player. He’s going to make a ton of contact, but not in the same way someone like Jacob Wilson makes a ton of contact, because he’s not just out there swinging at basically everything. He’s a patient hitter, routinely racking up walk rates in the high-teens in the minors. But he also doesn’t hit for much power, which makes those walk rates harder to maintain against good pitchers. Except he’s walked three times in his first 10 trips to the plate so far. He’ll steal a few bases and hopefully spend a lot of time on them, and he’s an interesting option in OBP leagues especially.
Outfield
Taylor Ward, Angels (59%) – When Ward struggles it can be pretty easy to justify dropping him, because we know the upside tops out at, “Pretty useful.” But he’s also been pretty consistently useful for three straight seasons at this point, and he’s hot right now, homering five times in his past five games, a reminder of how useful he always ends up being.
Jorge Soler, Angels (54%) – The case for Soler is pretty much the same as it is for Ward. He’s striking out a lot right now, but he usually ends up in the 25% range, which is manageable. After a slow start, Soler has homered four times in his past seven games, putting him right on track for what we typically expect from him.
Austin Hays, Reds (15%) – Hays is expected to make his return from the IL and debut with the Reds as early as Tuesday’s game against the Mariners in Cincinnati. He’s been out since just before the season with a calf injury, but began his minor-league rehab assignment this weekend, homering for Triple-A Louisville Saturday. Hays struggled last season with a variety of maladies, including a kidney infection, but he had been a solidly above-average bat for basically his entire career before that. And now he’ll be playing his home games in one of the best parts in the majors, making 20 homers an attainable goal even after missing the first couple of weeks of the season.
Jesus Sanchez, Marlins (15%) – Sanchez began his rehab assignment Thursday at Triple-A Jacksonville as he works his way back from an oblique strain. He’ll probably need a bit more time than Hays to get back, but he should be ready within the next week or so and remains a useful Fantasy option when right. Last season, the Marlins got a .797 OPS against right-handed pitching from Sanchez, and he probably deserved even better than that – he had a .366 expected wOBA compared to a .344 actual mark. His value is somewhat limited by an expected platoon role, but Sanchez ended last season with 18 homers and 16 steals and is well worth rostering in most categories leagues.
Jeff McNeil, Mets (16%) – McNeil is on the verge of returning from his own oblique injury, and with Brett Baty struggling with the bat and likely stretched as a second baseman defensively, McNeil could have a pretty clear path to playing time waiting for him. He started swinging the bat harder in the second half of last season and hit .289/.376/.547 after the All-Star break, and he could still be a useful Fantasy option at this stage in his career.
Starting pitcher
Clarke Schmidt, Yankees (66%) – Schmidt has been healthy for a while, but he needed extra time to get up to full strength after dealing with minor back and shoulder issues this spring. He’s expected to return to the rotation this week and is coming off a breakout partial season where he had a 2.85 ERA and 3.78 xERA in 85.1 innings of work. I’m skeptical that he’s going to sustain a sub-3.00 mark, but a mid-3.00s ERA with a good offense backing him up will have plenty of value of its own.
Edward Cabrera, Marlins (16%) – Catch him in the right inning and Cabrera will look absolutely unhittable. He’ll unleash a slew of excellent changeups and sliders and make even very good MLB hitters look silly. And then he’ll go through stretches – often in the very next inning! – where he loses the strike zone and struggles to do anything worthwhile. And that’s exactly what he looked like in his return from a blister this weekend, so I’m not sure it makes any sense to expect anything to change moving forward. But he’s so evidently talented that there’s a part of me that will always believe in Cabrera.
David Festa, Twins (15%) – There was some talk that Zebby Matthews might get called up to join the Twins rotation this week, but I haven’t seen anything concrete there, so Festa’s spot seems pretty safe as long as Pablo Lopez (hamstring) is out. Festa didn’t dominate in his first start of the season, throwing 4.2 shutout innings, but you can see the path to plus contributions. His control has been very good through three starts, including in Triple-A, and if he can sustain that while getting back to last season’s 10.8 K/9 mark, Festa could be very valuable. Even amid an up and down rookie season, he had a 3.76 FIP. He really isn’t far from being a very useful Fantasy option.
Andrew Abbott, Reds (20% – I’ve never been much of a believer in Abbott, a flyball pitcher without elite strikeout stuff who has somehow put together a 3.75 ERA in his MLB career. He returned from a shoulder injury this weekend with his fastball velocity sitting one mph down from last season, and he somehow managed to allow just one run in five innings. I really don’t get how he keeps getting away with it, but if you want to keep betting against me, it’s worked out pretty well with Abbott over the years.
Lucas Giolito, Red Sox (33%) – Giolito is working his way back from a hamstring injury that disrupted his spring, but it looks like he’s hitting the home stretch – he threw 64 pitches in his most recent start, with at least one more left Tuesday at Triple-A. If he gets through it without issue and gets close to 90 pitches, we’ll probably see Giolito cleared to return. He was sitting around 91 mph in that most recent rehab outing, which is a full tick down from the last time we saw him, which is a concern. But I still want to see if Giolito has anything left in the tank here.
Relief pitcher
Hayden Wesneski, Astros (51%) – Okay, maybe we need to take Hayden Wesneski more seriously. Viewed as more or less just a SPaRP option for H2H points leagues, Wesneski has been terrific to open the season, tossing his second quality start in three tries Sunday, with 10 strikeouts against the Angels. He’s up to 20 in 17.2 innings of work, with just three walks, and his sweeper finally started generating whiffs Sunday. He has a full, deep arsenal, he’s been getting whiffs with pretty much everything else so far, so the sweeper getting going Sunday is a good sign. The Astros have a well-deserved reputation for getting the most out of their pitchers, and Wesneski looks like he could be another developmental win.
Anthony Bender, Marlins (9%) – Bender has all of the performance concerns that Jackson does, but on a team that might be lucky to win 70 games. So his roster rate should be much lower. That said, I feel pretty confident he is the closer, despite just the one save so far – it was the only save the Marlins have had to date. He’s not a difference maker, and might only get 25 saves even if he is the closer all season long, so you’ll have to decide how much you need saves. If you’re desperate, though he’s there.
