SportsLine simulated the entire MLB season 10,000 times and identified 2025 Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakout and busts
In approximately three weeks, pitchers and catchers will begin reporting for MLB Spring Training 2025 and the reality of baseball being around the corner is drawing Fantasy baseball managers out of their winter hibernation. It’s already been an action-packed MLB offseason, highlighted by Juan Soto signing a 15-year, $765 million contract to join the New York Mets. Soto is already one of this generation’s best left-handed hitters and now he’ll hit near the top of a power-laden lineup that also includes Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos.
Where exactly does Soto belong on your 2025 Fantasy baseball draft board, and who are the 2025 Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts who may define the upcoming season as more MLB news unfolds such as Anthony Santander signing with the Blue Jays? Before going on the clock in any 2025 Fantasy baseball drafts, be sure to see the 2025 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last season, SportsLine’s Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts, and busts, including Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman. The team at SportsLine was all over Rutschman as a Fantasy bust from the start as he was being drafted in the first five rounds on average.
After finishing as runner-up in AL Rookie of the Year voting despite playing only 113 games in 2022 and becoming an all-star and a Silver Slugger in 2023, Rutschman saw across-the-board numbers declines and finished as the No. 6 catcher despite being selected two rounds earlier on average than any other catcher. There were far better values available at that stage of the draft and the model helped Fantasy baseball players avoid a painstaking selection early in the draft.
The SportsLine model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2025 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.
Any time more MLB news comes out about trades, signings or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.
Top 2025 Fantasy baseball sleepers
One of the 2025 Fantasy baseball sleepers the model is all over: Diamondbacks first baseman Josh Naylor. A former first-round pick of the Marlins who debuted with the Padres in 2019, Naylor finally broke through with the Guardians over the last few seasons. His time in Cleveland culminated with a 31-homer, 108-RBI season last year and he made his first MLB All-Star appearance.
Now he joins the Arizona Diamondbacks after an offseason trade and he’ll play a prominent role in the middle of a lineup loaded with athleticism. Chase Field has ranked as the sixth most hitter-friendly ballpark in the MLB over the last three seasons and the model is projecting that Naylor’s high contact rate (80th percentile) and above-average exit velocity (64th percentile) play well in the desert. See more Fantasy baseball sleepers at SportsLine.
Top 2025 Fantasy baseball breakouts
One of the 2025 Fantasy baseball breakouts the model is jumping on: Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews. A consensus top-10 MLB prospect last season, Crews made his Major League debut in 2024 and flashed incredible tools in a 31-game trial in Washington. Now he’s rated as the No. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline and he’ll have a chance to earn an everyday role for the Nationals in 2025.
Crews slashed a mediocre .219/.288/.353 in the majors last year, but he did have nine extra-base hits and stole 12 bases. He eventually projects to have average to above-average plate patience and a high-level hit tool that should pair dangerously with his power and speed. That’s a big reason why the model ranks him ahead of established veteran outfielders like George Springer and Kris Bryant. See more Fantasy baseball breakouts at SportsLine.
Top 2025 Fantasy baseball busts
As for players to avoid, the model has pinpointed Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto as one of its biggest 2025 Fantasy baseball busts. After posting from Japan and signing a 12-year, $325 million contract to join the Dodgers last year, Yamamoto went 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA and struck out 105 batters over 90 innings in his rookie season. He was an unquestionable success when healthy, but he battled a right shoulder injury that cost him three months.
The stuff is high-level and the expectations are high for Yamamoto next season, with his 2025 Fantasy baseball ADP currently hovering in the low-50s. However, the potential for further injury and some concerning underlying metrics might be cause for concern. He ranked in the 27th percentile among MLB pitchers last season for hard-hit contact rate (41.3%) and the model is predicting that he ranks outside the top 50 Fantasy baseball starting pitchers despite the fact that he’s the seventh starter off the board on average in early 2025 Fantasy baseball drafts. See more Fantasy baseball busts at SportsLine.
How to find proven 2025 Fantasy baseball rankings
SportsLine’s model is also high on a young shortstop that is predicting will vault into the top 10 at the position despite being drafted outside the top 20 at his position. It predicts he’ll outperform established stars like Bo Bichette and Dansby Swanson. This pick could be the difference between winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.
So which 2025 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2025 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Adley Rutschman’s disappointing season, and find out.
