Ravens vs. Bills highlights four Divisional Round NFL matchups this weekend
Spots in the AFC and NFC Championship Games will be on the line this weekend when eight teams clash in four NFL Divisional Round games across the country.
The action kicks off on Saturday when the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites. That game will be followed by the top seed in the NFC, the Detroit Lions, looking to return to the NFC Championship Game for the second straight season with a win over the Washington Commanders. The Lions are the biggest favorites of the Divisional round at 9.5 points.
On Sunday, the NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles and the NFC West champion Los Angeles Rams square off in Philadelphia in a battle of two of the NFL’s hottest teams. The Eagles are 6-point favorites. The Divisional Round concludes on Sunday night with what the odds say is the most evenly-matched game of the weekend: the Buffalo Bills hosting the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills opened as slight favorites, but the Ravens are now favored by 1.5 points.
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Texans at Chiefs (Saturday)
- Kickoff time 4:30 p.m. ET
- Point spread Chiefs -8.5
- Money line Chiefs -357, Texans +375
- Total 41.5
Picks and more to know
Kansas City begins its quest to become the first franchise to win three straight Super Bowls on Saturday when the team hosts Houston in a Divisional Round game. The matchup is a rematch of a Week 16 game, also in Kansas City, which the Chiefs won 27-19. That game was a one-score contest for its entirety and wasn’t clinched until Kansas City milked the final 3:41 off the clock.
The Chiefs forced the only two turnovers of the game, both interceptions of Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, and converted those turnovers into 10 points. The victory was the fourth straight for Kansas City over Houston, a streak that began in a Divisional Round playoff game in 2019. The Chiefs’ average margin of victory in those games has been 12 points.
This season, Kansas City (15-2) has been led by one of the best defenses in the league. During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed just 19.2 points per game, which ranked fourth in the NFL. The defense allowed the team to pull out close wins week after week. Of the Chiefs’ 15 wins, 11 came by 8 points or fewer.
While Kansas City is looking to reach the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight season, the Texans are in search of the franchise’s first AFC Championship Game appearance. They are 0-5 in the Divisional Round and 0-5 on the road in the postseason, including a 34-10 loss at Baltimore last season.
This year, Houston has been carried by a play-making defense. The Texans ranked second in the NFL in the regular season in interceptions (19), fourth in sacks (49) and fifth in total defense (315.0 yards per game). In last week’s Wild Card win over the Chargers, Houston became the first team since the 2000 Ravens to allow a sub-45% completion percentage, register 4-plus sacks and intercept 4-plus passes in a playoff game.
SportsLine experts Jason La Canfora and Alex Selesnick have both entered picks for this matchup, and the SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in more than 50% of simulations.
Commanders at Lions (Saturday)
- Kickoff time 8 p.m. ET
- Point spread Lions -9.5
- Money line Lions -485, Commanders +430
- Total 55.5
Picks and more to know
Detroit can move one step closer toward ending the franchise’s Super Bowl drought when the Lions host Washington in a NFC Divisional Round game Saturday night. The Lions famously have never been to the Super Bowl and have reached the NFC Championship Game just twice. One of those appearances came last year when they lost to the 49ers 34-31.
This season, Detroit (15-2) earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC despite a litany of injuries, particularly on defense. No injury was more impactful than losing all-world defensive end Aidan Hutchinson for the season with a broken fibula.
With the defense playing at less than 100%, the Lions have ridden an explosive and balanced offense. Detroit led the league during the regular season in scoring offense (33.2 points per game) and ranked second in both total offense (409.5 yards per game) and passing offense (263.2). Quarterback Jared Goff ranked fourth in the league in passing yards (4,629), and running back Jahmyr Gibbs was fifth in rushing yards (1,412). Goff and Co. will face a Commanders defense that ranked third against the pass during the regular season (189.5 yards per game) but gave up 23 points per game, which was 18th in the NFL.
Much of Washington’s turnaround from a 4-13 record in 2023 to 13-5 this season can be attributed to rookie sensation Jayden Daniels. The runaway favorite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, Daniels set rookie quarterback records for completion percentage (69%) and rushing yards (891) during the regular season. In last week’s 23-20 victory over the Buccaneers, Daniels ran for a crucial first down to help set up a game-winning 37-yard field goal as time expired.
SportsLine experts Jason La Canfora and Matt Severance have entered picks for this matchup, and the SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in almost 60% of simulations.
Rams at Eagles (Sunday)
- Kickoff time 3 p.m. ET
- Point spread Eagles -6
- Money line Eagles -278, Rams +235
- Total 44
Picks and more to know
Two hot teams collide when the Eagles and Rams square off in a Divisional Round game on Sunday in Philadelphia. The Eagles have won 13 of their last 14 games. Their only loss over that stretch came to the Commanders in Week 16 when quarterback Jalen Hurts was forced to leave the game with a concussion. Meanwhile, the Rams have won six of their last seven games. But their lone defeat over that time came against the Seahawks in Week 18 when Los Angeles rested its starters.
Sunday’s game will be a rematch of a Week 12 contest between the two teams, which Philadelphia won 37-20 in Los Angeles. In that game, the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley ran all over the Rams, rushing for a franchise-record 255 yards and scoring two touchdowns.
Philadelphia isn’t likely to veer much from that gameplan. Led by Barkley, who had one of the best seasons by a running back in NFL history (2,005 rushing yards), and a ruthlessly efficient offensive line, the Eagles ranked second in the league in rushing (179.3 yards per game) during the regular season. On Sunday, they will face a Rams defense that allowed the 11th-most rushing yards (2,210) in 2024.
However, the L.A. defense has proven to be difficult to run on in the playoffs. In 12 postseason games under coach Sean McVay, the Rams have not allowed even one 100-yard rusher. If they can slow Barkley and force Philadelphia into third-and-long situations, that will free up the L.A. pass rush, which generated nine sacks in Monday’s 27-9 win over the Vikings.
On offense, the Rams will rely on Super Bowl-winning quarterback Matthew Stafford, who enters the game on a roll. Over his last eight games played, Stafford is 7-1 and has thrown 13 touchdowns against one interception. He will face an Eagles defense that led the league in pass defense (174.2 yards per game) but will be without star linebacker Nakobe Dean, who is out for the season with a knee injury.
SportsLine experts R.J. White and Jason La Canfora have both entered picks for this matchup, and the SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in almost 60% of simulations.
Ravens at Bills (Sunday)
- Kickoff time 6:30 p.m. ET
- Point spread Ravens -1.5
- Money line Ravens -106, Bills +104
- Total 51.5
Picks and more to know
NFL’s Divisional Round concludes with arguably the best matchup of the weekend: Buffalo hosting Baltimore. The game features the top two favorites to win the NFL MVP award in the Bills’ Josh Allen and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, as well as two of the top three scoring offenses in the league. Buffalo averaged 30.9 points per game in the regular season and Baltimore averaged 30.5.
The teams met earlier this season, and the game wasn’t close. The Ravens routed the Bills 35-10 in Week 4 in Baltimore. In that game, Henry ran for 199 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown on the Ravens’ first play from scrimmage. Jackson accounted for three more touchdowns, including two through the air. Baltimore limited Buffalo to a season-low 10 points, forced Allen to his worst game of the season and outgained the Bills in total yards 427 to 236.
The dominant performance was just one of many for the Ravens this season. They led the NFL during the regular season in total offense (424.9 yards per game) and rushing offense (187.6). Jackson, already a two-time league MVP, became the first quarterback in NFL history with 40-plus passing touchdowns and fewer than five interceptions in a season.
The Bills, however, have a couple things going for them that they didn’t have in that first meeting. First, Sunday’s game will be at Highmark Stadium, where Buffalo is 9-0 this season. The Bills’ average margin of victory in those nine games was 17.4. That includes a 31-7 victory over a streaking Broncos team in last week’s AFC Wild Card game.
Additionally, Buffalo will enter the Divisional Round matchup much more healthy that it did the Week 4 contest. Three key defensive starters who missed the first game—linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson—are set to face Baltimore on Sunday. The presence of Milano may be the most important. A first-team All-Pro player in 2022, Milano played just four games during the regular season. But last week against Denver, he had five tackles (tied for second on the team) and a sack while showcasing flashes of his All-Pro form.
SportsLine experts Mike Tierney, Larry Hartstein, Jason La Canfora and Erik Kuselias have entered spread picks for this matchup, and the SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in more than 50% of simulations.
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