Corbin Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in MLB over the past five seasons.
Corbin Burnes is headed to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and it wasn’t cheap.
The 2021 Cy Young Award winner agreed to a six-year, $210 million deal with the Diamondbacks early Saturday morning. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement, which has an opt-out for Burnes after two seasons.
Because Burnes turned down a qualifying offer from Baltimore, the Orioles will receive draft pick compensation from his new team.
The contract is the largest in Diamondbacks history. Burnes, who lives in Scottsdale, Arizona, will now pitch for the local team after reportedly turning down offers from the San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays.
The D-backs make their big move with Corbin Burnes
While the move makes sense from a commute perspective, it’s a surprise from Arizona.
A year after reaching their first World Series since 2001, the D-backs missed out on the playoffs in 2024 and remain mired in the NL West, arguably the most competitive division in baseball. The team is still set up to win, though, so it spent big for a new weapon after similarly big moves by the Los Angeles Dodgers (signing Blake Snell, re-signing Teoscar Hernández) and San Francisco Giants (signing Willy Adames), with the San Diego Padres also lurking.
However, the rotation already loomed as a strength for the D-backs, or at least relatively given their high number of position player free agents and a bullpen that ranked 25th in ERA last season. They still decided to spend big to add another headliner alongside Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. Jordan Montgomery is also still under contract after a disastrous 2024 — so bad D-backs owner Ken Kendrick called his contract a “horrible decision” — but he is now a clear trade candidate if a team wants to try buying low.
It’s also encouraging the D-backs are spending despite being one of the teams to have their RSN implode with the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. Local cable revenue is a foundational component of the finances for teams like Arizona, but they are still going for it.
Meanwhile, the deal ends Burnes’ tenure with the Orioles after one season. The AL East contenders went for a splashy trade last winter by acquiring the right-hander from the Milwaukee Brewers, but it ended up being a one-year rental.
It’s not like Burnes didn’t deliver for Baltimore. From his Opening Day start (6 innings, 1 hit, 1 run, 11 strikeouts) to his sole postseason start (8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 3 strikeouts), Burnes was the bona fide ace the Orioles sought when they traded for him, but his free-agent market was likely out of Baltimore’s price range.
Corbin Burnes has been one of MLB’s best pitchers for 5 years, but could he be declining?
Looking over the past half-decade, there is no question that Burnes has been one of MLB’s top aces.
Since the 2020 season, Burnes ranks third in MLB in innings pitched with 816 2/3, fourth in ERA at 2.88, sixth in FIP at 3.01, second in strikeouts with 946 and fourth in bWAR with 18.6. There is nothing you could look for in a pitcher that Burnes isn’t great at.
It remains an impressive success story for a player who was legitimately one of the worst pitchers in MLB in 2019. In 49 innings pitched, Burnes posted a galling 8.82 ERA. That remains the worst ERA by any pitcher in Brewers history with at least 40 innings pitched. Only 23 pitchers in MLB history have posted a worse mark in that many innings.
Then Burnes turned his career around by introducing a cutter that is now his signature pitch. That said, he actually cut down his cutter usage from 55.4% to 45% this past season while still having a great season.
However, there are some reasons for concern that Burnes could be on the decline, starting with the fact that he’s already north of 30 years old. After posting whiff rates above 35% from 2019 to 2022, he fell below 29% in 2023 and 2024. This past season, batters also both swung and made contact with pitches in the zone from Burnes at the highest rate since his miserable 2019 season.
Burnes’ velocity has stayed steady in his career, but in 2024, he struck out batters at a mediocre rate by MLB standards and at an abysmal rate by his own standards. Quite a few ERA predictors haven’t been fans of his peripherals over the past two seasons as well.
Still, what matters are results, and Burnes has delivered. Even a pitcher performing at 90% of Burnes’ prime is one of the most valuable pitchers in the game, and there are pitchers older than Burnes who are still getting paid tens of millions per year.
Giving Burnes this much money is fine, and he would be a great addition for any team. It’s just important to be aware of what trends he needs to buck to stay among MLB’s elite.
