The Dallas Cowboys are loaded with pick capital heading into the 2025 NFL draft. Ahead of the three-day affair, Dallas has a total of 10 picks to work with, barring any trades. This breaks down to three picks in the top 100 and seven picks in the rounds thereafter.
It’s a hefty number of selections to have and a fairly comforting situation to be in considering all the needs they have yet to address this offseason. If the board doesn’t fall right in one round, they have the ability to wait it out and address that need in the subsequent rounds. It’s a level of flexibility afforded to teams with extra draft picks like the Cowboys. Yet that mindset may be the wrong one to take for matters such as this.
Not all draft picks are created equal because the further down the draft a team goes, the less likely the players are to pan out. Cowboys’ fans can just look to their own recent draft history for the proof.
While the Cowboys have recently batted roughly 50% in the fourth round of the draft, the same can’t be said for the subsequent rounds on Day 3. And since Dallas doesn’t currently hold any picks in the fourth round this draft cycle, the latter rounds will be the focus for this exercise.
From 2014 through 2023 the Cowboys have used a total of 12 picks on fifth-round prospects. Of them, just one has delivered two or more seasons as a primary starter at his respective position (per PFR). Over the same time span the Cowboys have drafted a total of 31 players in the sixth and seventh rounds. Of them only six have become primary starters for two or more seasons in the NFL.
By these modest standards, that means the success rate for fifth rounders has been 8% while the sixth and seventh-round success rate has been just around 19%. These aren’t good odds for a team hoping to fill holes with Day 3 selections.
The numbers bear this out. Using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Trade Value Chart, a method of assigning real-life value based on historical performance, the Cowboys top three picks (12, 44, 76) are expected to be “worth” 3,628 points. Their last seven picks (149, 174, 204, 211, 239, 247) total just 1,876 points.
Comparatively, the Cowboys have drafted 31 players inside the first three rounds during this time span. 18 of them logged two or more seasons as primary starters with many even delivering Pro Bowl and All-Pro campaigns. The success rate for these picks sits at roughly 58%.
Based on all recent data, needs addressed in the top three rounds have a very solid chance of being fulfilled whereas needs addressed on Day 3 are significant longshots. It stands to reason any need kicked beyond the top 100 is a need that will probably go unfulfilled. This places extreme pressure on the first three picks to be used on positions of need. It also indicates all Day 3 selections should be taken with a grain of salt and weighted with feather-like importance.
It’s all something to keep in mind when getting upset about unattractive Day 3 picks because odds are they probably won’t amount to anything anyway. It’s also something to keep in mind when low-value, low-need positions are addressed over high-value, high-need positions early in the draft. The draft is really just three rounds of solutions with a handful of scratch-off lottery tickets tailing in the latter rounds.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: 2025 Draft: Cowboys chances of Day 3 success few and far between
The Dallas Cowboys are loaded with pick capital heading into the 2025 NFL draft. Ahead of the three-day affair, Dallas has a total of 10 picks to work with, barring any trades. This breaks down to three picks in the top 100 and seven picks in the rounds thereafter.
It’s a hefty number of selections to have and a fairly comforting situation to be in considering all the needs they have yet to address this offseason. If the board doesn’t fall right in one round, they have the ability to wait it out and address that need in the subsequent rounds. It’s a level of flexibility afforded to teams with extra draft picks like the Cowboys. Yet that mindset may be the wrong one to take for matters such as this.
Not all draft picks are created equal because the further down the draft a team goes, the less likely the players are to pan out. Cowboys’ fans can just look to their own recent draft history for the proof.
While the Cowboys have recently batted roughly 50% in the fourth round of the draft, the same can’t be said for the subsequent rounds on Day 3. And since Dallas doesn’t currently hold any picks in the fourth round this draft cycle, the latter rounds will be the focus for this exercise.
From 2014 through 2023 the Cowboys have used a total of 12 picks on fifth-round prospects. Of them, just one has delivered two or more seasons as a primary starter at his respective position (per PFR). Over the same time span the Cowboys have drafted a total of 31 players in the sixth and seventh rounds. Of them only six have become primary starters for two or more seasons in the NFL.
By these modest standards, that means the success rate for fifth rounders has been 8% while the sixth and seventh-round success rate has been just around 19%. These aren’t good odds for a team hoping to fill holes with Day 3 selections.
The numbers bear this out. Using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Trade Value Chart, a method of assigning real-life value based on historical performance, the Cowboys top three picks (12, 44, 76) are expected to be “worth” 3,628 points. Their last seven picks (149, 174, 204, 211, 239, 247) total just 1,876 points.
Comparatively, the Cowboys have drafted 31 players inside the first three rounds during this time span. 18 of them logged two or more seasons as primary starters with many even delivering Pro Bowl and All-Pro campaigns. The success rate for these picks sits at roughly 58%.
Based on all recent data, needs addressed in the top three rounds have a very solid chance of being fulfilled whereas needs addressed on Day 3 are significant longshots. It stands to reason any need kicked beyond the top 100 is a need that will probably go unfulfilled. This places extreme pressure on the first three picks to be used on positions of need. It also indicates all Day 3 selections should be taken with a grain of salt and weighted with feather-like importance.
It’s all something to keep in mind when getting upset about unattractive Day 3 picks because odds are they probably won’t amount to anything anyway. It’s also something to keep in mind when low-value, low-need positions are addressed over high-value, high-need positions early in the draft. The draft is really just three rounds of solutions with a handful of scratch-off lottery tickets tailing in the latter rounds.
Follow Cowboys Wire on Facebook to join in on the conversation with fellow fans!
This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: 2025 Draft: Cowboys chances of Day 3 success few and far between
