The Chiefs will be trying to make a seventh straight AFC title game, and they’ll do so against a Texans team they’ve already beaten once. How can Houston spring the upset?
For the second time since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, a conference welcomes back the same four teams from to the divisional round of the playoffs as the year before.
The matchups are different than a year ago. The Houston Texans took on the Baltimore Ravens last season, and will face the Kansas City Chiefs this time around. The Ravens get the Buffalo Bills, who lost to the Chiefs in the divisional round a year ago. But the teams are familiar. All four repeated as division champs, as well.
The Texans were the shakiest of the four teams after some struggles in the second half of the season. The Chiefs? Since Patrick Mahomes became their starter they seem to have a permanent home in this round, and the next round, too, for that matter.
The matchup
No. 4 Houston Texans (11-7) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
How to watch Texans at Chiefs
The game will be broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
Betting odds
It’s no surprise that the Chiefs are an 8.5-point favorite at BetMGM. They’re the second-biggest favorite of the divisional round. The total is 42. The Chiefs were a 3.5-point favorite in the first meeting between the teams in Week 16, and the Chiefs covered the spread in a 27-19 win.
X-factor
Over the past two seasons, Trent McDuffie has been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. He’s a big part of a very good Chiefs defense, and he’s especially important this week against the Texans’ narrow passing tree. After injuries to Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, the Texans receiving room is practically Nico Collins and some blind hope. Collins is one of the best receivers in the NFL, but he struggled against the Chiefs in their first meeting back in Week 16. He had just 60 yards on seven catches. McDuffie was a big part of that. Collins saw four targets when McDuffie had the primary coverage, and he had three catches for just five yards on those plays, according to Pro Football Focus. McDuffie got an interception in that game as well. McDuffie might not shadow Collins the whole game, but he will be a big part of limiting the Texans’ only dangerous receiver.
How the Texans can win
The Texans have one big edge, and it’s their edge rushers. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter both had excellent seasons. The Texans’ pass rush was great against the Chargers last week. The Chiefs’ biggest problem on offense all season has been their tackles. It got so bad they moved left guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle late in the season. Thuney played well there because he’s an All-Pro level performer, but it’s still not his natural position. D.J. Humphries returned from injury to play in Week 18 but he has played in just two games all season after he was a midseason addition. The Chiefs haven’t said if Thuney or Humphries will start at left tackle. It doesn’t matter who starts where on Kansas City’s line, the Texans have to win that matchup and do so emphatically.
How the Chiefs can win
It wasn’t that long ago that the Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 in Week 16. The Texans were in that game, trailing just 17-16 when Tank Dell scored a touchdown, but Dell’s horrific injury obviously shook the Texans up and also took a key playmaker away from them. The Chiefs pulled away after that. A big factor in that game for KC, and late in the season as a whole, was rookie Xavier Worthy. Worthy had seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs’ path to winning that game wasn’t complicated: They ran the ball effectively, Patrick Mahomes had an efficient day, Worthy was highlighted and the defense played well, including two interceptions of Texans QB C.J. Stroud. The Texans need to play a very, very good game against the Chiefs to win. Kansas City should win if it just plays like it normally does.
Prediction
In Patrick Mahomes’ first six seasons as Chiefs starter, they made six AFC championship games. The last time an AFC title game didn’t include the Chiefs, the starting quarterbacks were Tom Brady and Blake Bortles. It seems almost inevitable that Mahomes and the Chiefs make it seven-for-seven. The Texans played a good game against the Chargers last week, but they were still 4-5 in the second half of the season and already lost once at Arrowhead Stadium this season. The Chiefs lost only one game all season in which they tried, and that came at a very good Buffalo Bills team. The Chiefs’ quest for a third straight Super Bowl win hasn’t been something NFL fans have rallied around. There’s serious Kansas City fatigue. But it doesn’t seem like their run will end this week. Chiefs 28, Texans 17
