Kansas City’s decision could determine the AFC playoff landscape
The Kansas City Chiefs have locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a week remaining in the 2024 regular season. With everything already accomplished for the defending champions, CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported on Sunday morning that Andy Reid is set to rest key starters in Week 18 when his club travels to Denver to face the Broncos. After all, this game is meaningless for the Chiefs at this juncture, but this decision to hold out star players like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce could have a monumental impact on the overall playoff picture.
After the Bengals were able to outlast the Broncos in Saturday’s overtime win, the final playoff spot in the AFC is still up for grabs. For Denver, the path is simple. All the Broncos need to do is defeat the Chiefs in Week 18, and they’re in. So, if the Chiefs elect to rest players like this latest report indicates they will, the Broncos’ avenue to securing a playoff spot becomes that much easier.
If the Broncos win, that would also then eliminate the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts from playoff contention. In a roundabout way, the Chiefs would be ousting Joe Burrow — who has enjoyed success against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in his career — from the postseason and eliminate a lot of wild scenarios for other AFC teams to sneak in.
For instance, the Colts are still alive in the playoff race, but any sort of path is moot if the Broncos win next week. For Indy to get in, it would need to win out, have Denver lose out and have the Dolphins win out. Another scenario would include the Colts to again win out and the Broncos lose in Week 18, while the Bengals beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 18.
For the Bengals, arguably the most dangerous team within this group of eligible playoff contenders, they’d need to beat the Steelers on the road in Week 18, have the Broncos lose to the Chiefs and have the Dolphins and Colts to lose at least one of their two remaining games.
Regarding the Dolphins, if they win out, they have a shot. They’d also need the Colts to lose at least one of their two remaining games and the Broncos to lose in Week 18.
As you can see, everything ties back to the Broncos losing in Week 18 for those other clubs to have a chance, and their playoff hopes get a bit bleaker, with Carson Wentz likely to start for K.C. in Week 18 rather than Patrick Mahomes.
