SportsLine’s model simulated the Boston vs. Orlando 10,000 times and revealed its NBA picks and best bets for Sunday’s Game 4 matchup in the 2025 NBA playoffs
The 2-seed Boston Celtics and 7-seed Orlando Magic will meet in Game 4 of their first-round series on Sunday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. After Boston pulled away with wins in Games 1 and 2, the Magic defended their home court in Game 3, taking down Boston, 95-93. The Celtics may be facing an uphill climb, with Jrue Holiday (hamstring) out and Jaylen Brown (knee) listed as questionable.
Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET from the Kia Center in Orlando. Boston is a 7-point favorite in the latest Celtics vs. Magic odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 196.5. Before locking in any Celtics vs. Magic picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 22-11 (67%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Celtics vs. Magic on Sunday:
Magic (+6.5) to cover the spread (-106 at FanDuel)
After losing Game 1 by 17 games, the Magic have consistently cut down that margin. Game 2, they lost by nine games before getting over the hump in Game 3, with a two point victory. Going back to the regular season, the Magic have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 outings, with two of those matchups coming against Boston. Forward Franz Wagner plays a huge role on this team, logging 25-plus points in back-to-back games. Orlando is projected to cover in nearly 49% of simulations, with -106 odds coming at FanDuel.
Bonus pick time: NBA expert Mike Barner is heating up! Get his best bets for Saturday here, all from the expert who is 144-97 on his last 241 NBA prop picks (+2988).
Under 196.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Under has hit twice this series and seven of the last 10 games between these teams. The Celtics are shooting 44.9% from the field, which is lower than their regular-season average (46.2%). The same goes for Orlando, as they are shooting 43.5% from the floor in the playoffs, which is below their regular-season average (44.5%). Meanwhile, the Magic only knock down 28.4% of their 3-pointers. Boston averaged 116 points during the regular season, and Orlando logged 105.4 points per game, but the model projects both teams to score at least nine points lower than the season average.
Bonus pick: You’ve seen the best bets for Celtics vs. Magic on Sunday. Now, get picks for every game from the model that enters the NBA postseason on a 156-116 run on top-rated NBA picks.
Paolo Banchero over 29.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
Banchero averaged 25.9 points this season and has the ability to score from all three levels with no problem. In 10 career playoff games, the Duke product has tallied 30-plus points in five of those contests. In Games 1 & 2 against Boston, Banchero finished with at least 32 points. With Jrue Holiday out, Jaylen Brown questionable, and Jayson Tatum less than 100%, Banchero has the pathway to another great performance. He’s also shooting 47.1% from beyond the arc on 5.7 attempts this series.
