SportsLine’s model simulated Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers 10,000 times and revealed its picks and best bets for Sunday’s Game 1 matchup in the 2025 NBA playoffs
The No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers will look for a hot start when they host the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup in the 2025 NBA playoffs. Cleveland held off defending champion Boston for the top seed in the conference with a 64-18 record. Miami advanced to the first round of the 2025 NBA playoff bracket with play-in tournament victories over Chicago and Atlanta on the road. The Heat became the first No. 10 seed in either conference to make the NBA playoffs since the current play-in format began in the 2020-21 season.
Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET from Rocket Arena in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 12.5-point favorites in the latest Cavaliers vs. Heat odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 215.5. Before locking in any Heat vs. Cavaliers picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-115 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Cavaliers vs. Heat on Sunday:
Heat (+12.5) to cover the spread (-110 at BetMGM)
The Heat not only became the first No. 10 seed to make the NBA playoffs, but they also became the first team to win two road games in the play-in tournament. Star guard Tyler Herro scored 30 points while knocking down two 3-pointers in overtime of a 123-114 win at Atlanta on Friday. He spearheaded an 8-4 run in the final 12 games of the regular season, with the Heat scoring more than 120 points per 100 possessions during that stretch. The model has Cleveland winning by nine points, providing value on the Heat to cover this spread. BetMGM is one of the books with the Heat at +12.5 with -110 odds.
Bonus pick time: NBA expert Alex Selesnick is heating up! Get his best bet for Sunday here, all from the expert who is 126-88 on his last 214 NBA prop picks (+1655).
Over 214.5 points (-112 at FanDuel)
Miami struggled offensively for most of the season, so its recent surge on that end of the court is not being properly accounted for. The Heat are facing a Cleveland offense that led the NBA in points scored per possession and finished as one of the most efficient offenses in league history. The Cavaliers have elite scoring guards and versatile big men. These teams have gone Over the total in four of their last five meetings, and Miami has gone Over the total in six of its last seven games. The Over is hitting in well over 50% of simulations, according to the SportsLine Projection Model, and FanDuel has the best number at 214.5.
Bonus pick: You’ve seen the best bets for Cavaliers vs. Heat on Sunday. Now, get picks for every game from the model that enters the NBA postseason on a 156-115 run on top-rated NBA picks.
Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 points (-130 at BetMGM)
Herro was the star in the play-in tournament on the offensive end, scoring a combined 68 points in those games. Adebayo, who averaged more than 18 points per game in the regular season, finished with 15 points against Chicago and 17 points against Atlanta. His over/under for points scored was 19.5 against the Bulls, so this adjustment is too large. He went Over in six straight games to close the regular season, averaging more than 21 points per game during that stretch. The model has Adebayo finishing with 18.6 points in Game 1, pointing to value on this line at BetMGM.
