There’s tons of action to get in on this weekend in boxing over three nights
This weekend is a huge one for boxing fans, with a trio of cards featuring some of the biggest names and best talent in the sport. Fights involving Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, Ryan Garcia, Devin Haney, Teofimo Lopez and Naoya Inoue are spread over the cards that take place Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
The action kicks off on Friday with a card in New York’s Times Square. The card is headlined by Garcia vs. Rolando Romero and also features Haney vs. Jose Ramirez, and Teofimo Lopez vs. Arnold Barboza Jr.
On Saturday, the focus moves to Saudi Arabia for a card headlined by Alvarez vs. William Scull for the undisputed super middleweight championship (You can purchase a bundle of both events at a discounted rate through DAZN PPV). Alvarez holds the WBO, WBA and WBC titles and is looking to regain the IBF belt that was stripped for him when he faces current champ Scull.
The big weekend comes to a close on Sunday in Las Vegas. Inoue will defend his undisputed junior featherweight title against Ramon Cardenas. The fight is Inoue’s first in America since 2021.
With so much action across the three days, there will be plenty of interest from sports bettors. With that in mind, we looked at all five of the weekend’s biggest fights to identify the best bet for each with odds of -250 or better. Let’s take a look at where we think the value is.
All odds below via Bet Rivers.
Ryan Garcia vs. Rolando Romero
Under 6.5 rounds (-114)
Garcia was in a terrible place mentally when he fought Devin Haney, and still put in the best performance of his career. He now seems in a much better place mentally, or at least seems much more in control of his behavior. That could be bad news for Romero, who is not a good boxer at a technical level and has been overwhelmed by less dangerous fighters than Garcia. The way Romero leaves himself open while throwing punches is going to leave him open to Garcia’s thunderous left hook. Garcia to win by KO/TKO/DQ is -590, meaning the better value is betting on that knockout to come under 6.5 rounds.
Devin Haney vs. Jose Ramirez
Total knockdowns: Under 0.5 (-200)
Given the “Best Bets Rule” that we try and keep the bets at -250 or better, there’s not many choices in this fight. Haney is -1250 to win in a fight that is very likely to go the distance (-530). The most likely outcome is Haney to win by decision (-385). Unless you want to throw a dart at an upset or possibly Haney to get the stoppage (+440), it feels like betting on no knockdowns to be scored is the safest play. We haven’t seen Haney in over a year, dating back to the overturned loss to Garcia. Between rust and the potential for some gunshyness after getting repeatedly rocked by Garcia, there’s no reason to expect a new, aggressive version of Haney. Add to that the fact that Haney has scored a single knockdown in eight fights since 2020, and betting on no knockdowns seems the safe play.
Teofimo Lopez vs. Arnold Barboza Jr.
Teofimo Lopez to win via decision (-130)
Gambling on a Lopez fight is a terrifying prospect. At times, he utilizes his extreme talent to maximum effect. Other times, he squanders that talent and gets outworked by less talented fighters. Barboza is a good fighter and an upset is very much in play, especially if Lopez again shows an inability to cut off the ring and lets fits of inactivity happen as the rounds tick by. Barboza is a better fighter than George Kambosos, who upset Lopez in 2021. All that said, Lopez is the better fighter and should be expected to manage the victory. Lopez has scored one knockdown and one stoppage since 2020 and Barboza is a good enough fighter that he’s unlikely to get stopped.
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. William Scull
Fight to go the distance: Yes (+133)
The idea that Alvarez is on the backside of his career has been beaten to death at this point, but still plays a factor in this fight. Scull is a natural super middleweight while Alvarez will always be slightly undersized for the division. Alvarez is still a massive favorite for all the expected reasons, mainly that he’s a legendary fighter with elite pound-for-pound skills while Scull is a slightly above average fighter who spent more than two years protecting his status as a mandatory title challenger by fighting in six and eight-round fights until he was able to face Vladimir Shishkin for the title the IBF stripped from Alvarez. Still, Scull fights in a very stereotypical “Cuban style,” utilizing distance, timing, defense and clinching. That’s a type of style that frustrates opponents and drags fights out. While I do believe Scull to win by decision is an interesting play at +4500 considering Alvarez hasn’t looked like his peak self in years, it’s a bit silly to actually make that play over something like the fight simply going the full 12 rounds.
Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas
Under 6.5 rounds (-139)
Everyone knows Inoue is a wrecking ball but Cardenas has a bit of pop himself. This should be an explosive fight but it’s also one primarily set up to get Inoue a win on American soil and set up bigger fights down the road, possibly with Murodjon Akhmadaliev in Saudi Arabia this summer. Expect this fight to be fun while it lasts before Inoue’s power does what it always does, likely before the mid-point of the seventh round.
