If you played this game 100 times, each team might win 50. The Ravens dominated the Bills earlier this season with Derrick Henry leading the way, but here are the keys to the rematch.
There haven’t been too many NFL divisional round matchups like the final game of this weekend.
It starts with the quarterback battle. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will almost certainly finish 1-2 in the NFL MVP voting, but we can’t be sure which one will win the award. That’s rare. It makes their divisional round showdown even more dramatic.
The teams also are on a similar chase. The Kansas City Chiefs are in the middle of a dynasty, meaning the Bills and Ravens have found Super Bowl trips hard to come by. The Bills haven’t been to the Super Bowl since the 1993 season and have never won one. The Ravens’ last trip was 2012, well before the Jackson era started.
It would be hard to find too many divisional round matchups — or playoff matchups in any round — with more drama attached to them.
The matchup
No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (14-4)
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
How to watch Ravens at Bills
The game will be broadcast on CBS and streamed live on Paramount+.
Betting odds
The Bills opened up as 1.5-point favorites, but a majority of the early bets coming in on the Ravens caused BetMGM to move the line to favor the Ravens by a point. If the Ravens remain favored at kickoff, it will be the first time the Bills have ever been a home underdog in the playoffs. The total for the game is 51.5.
X factor
The Ravens have a fantastic offense with or without Zay Flowers. But to go on the road and beat a very good Bills team, Flowers’ return might be a key. Flowers injured his knee in Week 18 and missed last week’s wild-card game. Ravens coach John Harbaugh opened the week by saying they’re in wait-and-see mode on Flowers’ availability. Flowers was by far the Ravens’ leader in receptions (74) and receiving yards (1,059) in the regular season. The Bills and Ravens are so evenly matched, taking a Pro Bowl receiver out of the lineup for Baltimore could be the difference. And even if Flowers is active, the Ravens will have to figure out if he’s close to full health.
How the Ravens can win
Week 4 seems like a long, long time ago. Back then, the Ravens easily beat the Bills, 35-10. Derrick Henry took the Ravens’ first offensive play 87 yards for a touchdown. Henry dominated that game with 199 yards. Lamar Jackson attempted only 18 passes, though he had 156 yards and two touchdowns. The Ravens are unlikely to have it that easy this time around. Still, the Ravens will try to run it against a Bills defense that was pretty good in that area. They allowed 271 rushing yards to the Ravens and didn’t allow more than 153 rushing yards in any other game. The Ravens can rely on Jackson to pass it often if needed, but part of the reason they brought in Henry was to take pressure off Jackson in the postseason. And it will be cold in Buffalo on Sunday; there’s a low temperature of 11 degrees in the forecast. Sounds like a good idea to pound it on the ground with the run game.
How the Bills can win
It’s funny, both teams have MVP-level quarterbacks but they also would be happy to keep it on the ground. At some point though, the Bills will look to Josh Allen to make some superhero plays. He usually comes through on that request. He did struggle in the first game against the Ravens though, completing just 16 of 29 passes for 180 yards and no touchdowns. He was also sacked three times, including a strip-sack by Kyle Van Noy that the Ravens recovered, and only rushed for 21 yards. The Ravens pass defense did a 180 from its early season struggles, allowing 202 or fewer passing yards in eight of its last nine regular-season games. Teams had a much tougher time getting big pass plays downfield against the Ravens defense late in the season. If the Bills are going to win, they’ll need to find a way to generate some explosive plays in the pass game. They have the right quarterback for it.
Prediction
If you play this game 100 times, each side might win 50. It’s a fantastic, even matchup between two teams with great quarterbacks and other similar strengths. Though the regular-season matchup was a long time ago and it seems unlikely that it will mirror what we see on Sunday night, it’s hard to ignore that the Ravens absolutely dominated the Bills. They outgained Buffalo 427 to 236. It was the only time the Bills lost by more than one score all season, and they lost it by 25. It’s one of only three times since Allen’s rookie season of 2018 that the Bills have lost by 20 or more. Does that matter for the rematch? We’ll find out on Sunday night. We might look up in a few weeks and realize the Ravens were the best team in football all along. Ravens 28, Bills 27
