QUINIX Sport News: 5 major storylines to watch during the fantasy football offseason: Tyreek Hill’s saga is only beginning

RBs, as a whole, averaged 21.7 attempts per game. Last year, they were at 21.6 totes a contest. In ’22, it was 21.8. You can see the static nature of play-calling here. But what has changed is the efficiency of the called runs. EPA per rush is up to -0.06 after holding at -0.10 for three straight years. Explosive rush rate jumped from 6.8% to 7.6%. For some teams, the counterpunches were actually knockout blows. Accordingly, early mocks have predicted a repeat in rushing performance, with 10 RBs featured in the first two rounds. However, I’m not ready to completely lean into the position with my expensive picks.

• Number of top-24 RBs with a Non-Early-Round ADP: 7 (2024), 9 (2023), 7 (2022)

• Number of top-24 RBs with a +10.0% Target Share: 12, 13, 10

• Number of top-24 RBs with at least 50.0% of their Team’s Carries: 17, 12, 15

If the last few seasons have taught us anything, it’s that we can find value later. A split backfield may condense into one guy. Increased usage during the season might be the proof that a coach needs to promote a player to the starter role. Identifying who’s likeliest to earn touches in any offense has been the key to filling out your RB position in fantasy. So, instead of going with the crowd, compare each rusher to other players at different positions before drafting them.

Bounceback offenses to target.

I tend to take a top-down approach to drafting players. For instance, I called the Lions “America’s team” back in Week 7, and they closed out the year as the top-ranked unit in offensive points per game (32.4). More points typically means you can support more fantasy players. So, I’ll break ties in favor of guys on better teams.

But I get it. Things change from year to year. Anyway, if I had to bet on which squads might have a better 2025 than ’24, I’d start with the Panthers.

If Barkley’s “Backwards Hurdle” was THE moment of the season, Bryce Young’s “no-look TD” celly comes in as a close second. Think about where Young was at the start of the season. He wasn’t responsible for a Panthers’ touchdown until the end of October. But when Carolina turned back to the former Alabama signal-caller, it was like he was fresh out of college.

• Pressure-to-Sack Ratio (since Week 8): 5th

• Completion Percentage Over Expected: 13th

• EPA per Dropback: 15th

Critically, Young and HC Dave Canales have shown proof of concept for the offense. Since Young’s reinstatement as the starter, the Panthers are right behind the Vikings at 23.1 PPG. So, if we have more confidence that the passing game can generate more points, we can add their skill players to our pool of options. Accordingly, as Adam Thielen contemplates retirement, Jalen Coker should be sliding up “sleeper lists” for 2025. Coker was the only other Carolina WR with a slot snap rate above 50.0%, was second in explosive play rate and would take over Thielen’s role should he hang up his cleats.

Both Coker and Young should be mid-to-late-round favorites, but the Falcons, in the same Week 18 game, made their case for gamers to keep them in mind over the offseason.

The late-season QB switch resulted in the Falcons missing out on the playoffs. But I won’t put the failure on Michael Penix Jr. He had another ricochet interception, resulting in Young’s game-tying TD four plays later. But Atlanta ran more plays (77) and executed the most dropbacks in a game (40) since Week 13. I realize we’re only working with a two-game sample, so the takeaway for 2025 is simple.

Bonus: Drake London should be in the Top 12 WR discussion

He doesn’t need to be WR5 or flirt with first-round value. But averaging 15.5 targets per game is significant. Skyrocketing to 3.81 YPRR should warrant our attention. So, while most will point to Bijan Robinson as the primary beneficiary of Penix’s first full year at the helm, the draft discount on London will be the way to play it over the summer.

I’m worried about these teams for 2025

The flip side of the “teams that can bounce back” coin is the group of squads with uncertain futures.

I mean, let’s be honest: how many people without a 713 or 281 area code are excited to see the Texans play this weekend? But, sticking with Houston for a bit, they’re one of the offenses I’ll be wary about targeting until we get news on their offseason moves.

• Passing Yards per Game (first five weeks): 288.8 (2023), 260.0 (2024)

• EPA per Dropback: 0.05, 0.02

• Passing Success Rate: 46.1%, 40.3%

I highlighted the first five weeks for a specific reason. It was the only time Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell were (relatively) healthy. Adding a premiere route runner like Diggs was supposed to get ahead of any “sophomore slump” concerns for C.J. Stroud. Houston had the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year on a coveted rookie deal. It was time to load up the personnel cupboard. And yet, Stroud’s protection made his second season about as painful as it looked at times.

• QB Hits Allowed: 113, 5th-most

• Total Pressures Allowed: 243, 7th-most

• Pass Block Win Rate: 57.0%, 8th-lowest

Nico Collins is yet to play more than 15 games in a season. Stefon Diggs will be an injured 31-year-old free agent. Tank Dell hurt more parts of his knee than I knew a human being had. Oh, and the Texans don’t have a lot of cap space. The narrow needle we have to thread for pocket passers already has me shying away from Stroud. However, the health and skill level of his surrounding talent will limit my Texans’ exposure to Collins and Joe Mixon without some positive adjustments.

The same goes for Miami.

• Yards per Drive (w/ Tagovailoa active): 36.1 (2023), 35.3

• EPA per Play: 0.07, 0.04

• Offensive Points per Game: 27.5, 24.1

I sampled the games with Tagovailoa on the field, so any changes at QB wouldn’t dilute the results. In either case, their W-L record reflects the metrics. But this isn’t to highlight any failures in Tagovailoa. In fact, he’s been more efficient and accurate this year than in ’23. Similar to Houston, Miami’s line has taken a step back, but not in the way you’d think.

• Run Block Win Rate: 70.0%, 7th-lowest

• Adjusted Yards Before Contact per Rush: 0.73, 7th-fewest

• Rushing Success Rate: 42.1%, 9th-lowest

HC Mike McDaniel runs a complementary offense. The running game plays off the passing attack and vice versa. Last season, De’Von Achane led the league in rushing yards over expected per attempt. Both his and Raheem Mostert’s contributions, combined with explosive plays from Tagovailoa to Hill or Jaylen Waddle, were a tough combination to handle for most teams. However, the lack of a running game in ’24 has put more pressure on the QB.

Hill’s potential departure aside, the uncertainty in offensive identity is worth monitoring over the offseason. We went from Mostert scoring 13 touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line in 2023 to Tagovailoa throwing 14 scores from the same area this year. If we’re going to push guys like Jonnu Smith into the upper echelons of their positional ranks, the Dolphins will need to continue their pass-happy ways in 2025.