SportsLine’s model simulated the 2025 Truist Championship 10,000 times and revealed its PGA Tour longshots
Rory McIlroy takes the course in a traditional PGA Tour event at the 2025 Truist Championship, formerly known as the Wells Fargo Championship, for the first time since his emotional Masters victory this week. The Truist Championship 2025 is the final PGA Tour event before next week’s PGA Championship, and McIlroy is a heavy favorite to win this week. McIlroy is the 4-1 favorite, according to the latest 2025 Truist Championship odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Play begins on Thursday, May 8, at the Philadelphia Cricket Club in a signature event.
There are plenty of longshots in the 2025 Truist Championship field to consider with some of the world’s best golfers skipping this week due to the upcoming major. Sam Stevens, who finished third at last week’s PGA Tour event, is listed at +9000 to win the Truist Championship. He’s made the cut in five of his last six competitions, but is he a longshot with value to include in 2025 Truist Championship bets? Byeong Hun An, who finished third at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship, is listed at 55-1 to win this week, making him a potential longshot for your 2025 Truist Championship picks.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament. This same model has also nailed a whopping 14 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters — its fourth Masters in a row — and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open.
Now that the 2025 Truist Championship field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and revealed its longshot betting picks:
Tommy Fleetwood (28-1)
Fleetwood finished seventh at the RBC Heritage for his sixth finish at 21st or better over his last seven tournaments. Fleetwood is 0-for-153 for victories over his career, but the 34-year-old is 12th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season as he’s playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s ninth in strokes gained: approach to green and 10th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and he’s finished in the top 25 in seven of eight tournaments this year.
Fleetwood has finished in the top 15 in each of his last three Wells Fargo Championships, which was the name of the tournament prior to this year, so he’s performed well this time of year. At 28-1 odds and given his recent performances, the model projects value in Fleetwood this weekend.
Corey Conners (30-1)
Conners finished T-8 at this year’s Masters, highlighted by a 4-under 68 to begin the first major of the year. The 33-year-old shot under par in each of the first three rounds of the Masters for what ended up being his fourth top-eight finish over five tournaments. Conners struggled at the RBC Heritage, finishing T-49, but he’s still eighth in the FedEx Cup standings and playing competitive golf.
Conners finished T-13 at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship after placing T-8 the season before. He is a two-time PGA Tour winner, and since finishing third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, he’s been a consistent under-par scorer. The model loves Conners at 30-1 odds as part of 2025 Truist Championship longshot bets.
Daniel Berger (40-1)
Berger finished T-3 at the RBC Heritage after a strong finish at the Masters, shooting a 69 in the final round. He finished T-21 at the Masters, but that strong finish carried over into the following weekend and could remain at the 2025 Truist Championship. He dominated the final day of the RBC Heritage as well, shooting a 6-under 65 on Sunday in his top-three finish.
Berger has shown the ability to learn a course as the tournament progresses, so if he’s in contention on the final day, Berger could strike with a significant longshot victory. The 32-year-old is 16th in the FedEx Cup standings and ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, highlighted by ranking seventh in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He is 12th in total driving and eighth in driving accuracy. There’s a lot to like about Berger’s performance and recent results, providing great value at 40-1 odds.
More 2025 Truist Championship picks
You’ve seen the latest longshots from the model. Now, see the Truist Championship leaderboard, including forecasted finishes for Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, and more. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 14 golf majors, including the last four Masters and three majors in 2024.
With the PGA Championship one week away, you see the model’s early picks to win the second major of the year. Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard for the 2025 PGA Championship from the model that correctly picked last year’s PGA Championship winner.
