SportsLine NHL analyst Scott Erskine gives his observations on the prop bet for which country will win the 2025 Stanley Cup
Thanks to the tremendous success of the 4 Nations Face-Off this past February, the rivalry on the ice between the United States and Canada has increased among fans. The Canadians rallied to post a 3-2 overtime victory over the Americans in the final, reinforcing the belief that their country is tops in the sport of hockey.
The feud between the nations appears to be carrying over to the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, as many sportsbooks offer a prop bet allowing bettors to select which country possesses the team that will win the championship. Canada is at a severe disadvantage here, as only five of the 16 clubs participating in the playoffs represent the nation.
Just three of those five — the Montreal Canadiens (24), Toronto Maple Leafs (13) and Edmonton Oilers (five) — have ever hoisted Lord Stanley’s trophy. But Montreal has reached the Final just once since winning its last championship in 1993, Toronto hasn’t made an appearance since winning in 1967 and Edmonton is 0-for-2 since its victory in 1990.
The overwhelming favorite to boast the Stanley Cup winner this postseason is the United States, as oddsmakers have the country’s odds between -310 and -400. This certainly won’t have bettors rushing to lay down a wager on the U.S., but considering Canadian teams’ track record in the Stanley Cup Playoffs over the past three decades, it’s difficult to suggest betting that the nation will end its drought is a good plan.
The Ottawa Senators lost to the Anaheim Ducks in their lone trip in the Stanley Cup Final in 2007 and the Winnipeg Jets have yet to reach the Final in seven postseason appearances since the franchise relocated from Atlanta in 2011. The previous incarnation of the Winnipeg Jets played in the NHL from 1979-96 before moving to Phoenix and made 11 playoff appearances without reaching the Final.
The 2024-25 Jets earned 116 points to capture the Presidents’ Trophy for the first time but aren’t even the Canadian team sportsbooks give the best odds to win the Cup. That distinction belongs to the Oilers, who are listed around +950. Winnipeg is fetching odds of around +1000.
There are several reasons Winnipeg isn’t given top consideration among Canadian teams. For instance, Edmonton came within one victory of winning the Cup last postseason. Additionally, the Jets also had a great regular season in 2023-24, finishing with 110 points, but were eliminated in five games by the Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the playoffs.
In fact, Winnipeg has been knocked out in the opening round (including the 2020 qualifying round) in four of its last five postseason appearances and has advanced past the second round just once (2018) since moving from Atlanta. Lastly, no Presidents’ Trophy winner has won the Cup since the Chicago Blackhawks in 2013 and eight straight were eliminated in the first or second round before the New York Rangers reached the Eastern Conference Final last year.
As a whole, Canada is a major longshot to become the nation from which the 2025 champion comes, as the odds range from +240 to +290 at most sportsbooks. Having six fewer teams participating is a huge reason, as is the fact a Canadian team hasn’t captured the Cup since the 1993 Canadiens defeated Wayne Gretzky and the Los Angeles Kings.
Instead of laying the thick prices on the U.S., I’d rather take a shot at an individual American team to win the Cup. The Vegas Golden Knights — who won their first championship just two years ago — are available at +1000, while you can find +1100 odds on the Dallas Stars at some sportsbooks. And don’t count out the Tampa Bay Lightning, a club that reached the Final three straight times from 2020-22 and won twice, at around +1100.
