The Lions and Chiefs have a great chance to go to the Super Bowl
The NFL playoffs have undergone a series of changes since the merger, none having as big of an impact since the field expanded from 12 to 14 teams in 2020. A change that seemed inevitable despite the 12-team format being nearly perfect, there wasn’t much incentive toward having the No. 1 seed in the old format.
Having home-field advantage was huge for a team’s Super Bowl chances, but not as massive as possessing the No. 1 seed in the expanded playoffs. With 14 teams in the playoffs, there is only one first-round bye to be had instead of two — making home-field advantage all the more paramount.
Not only does the No. 1 seed get a team home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, but the No. 1 seed is the only team in the conference to have a week off. Just like the 12-team format used since 1990, the NFL reseeds going into the divisional round. The lowest seed remaining will play the No. 1 seed, giving the highest seed in the field an even bigger advantage.
The result the NFL is getting? The best teams in the regular season are getting to the Super Bowl, making the regular season all the more important. Here’s how the No. 1 seeds have fared since the playoffs expanded in 2020:
| Year | Conference | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2020 |
AFC |
L, Super Bowl |
|
|
2020 |
NFC |
L, conference championship |
|
|
2021 |
AFC |
L, divisional round |
|
|
2021 |
NFC |
Packers |
L, divisional round |
|
2022 |
AFC |
Chiefs |
W, Super Bowl |
|
2022 |
NFC |
L, Super Bowl |
|
|
2023 |
AFC |
L, conference championship |
|
|
2023 |
NFC |
L, Super Bowl |
One No. 1 seed has won the Super Bowl under the 14-team playoff format, as the Chiefs defeated the Eagles (another No. 1 seed) to win the championship. Since the 14-team playoff format started, 50% of the No. 1 seeds have gone on to reach the Super Bowl — a good sign for a team that has the No. 1 seed.
The NFC’s No. 1 seed has gone to the Super Bowl twice, the same amount as the AFC. Of course, the only No. 1 seed to go to the Super Bowl for this playoff format in the AFC is the Chiefs — who have won back-to-back championships and three of the last five Super Bowls.
Having the No. 1 seed still has a major advantage. Since playoff seeding began in 1975, the No. 1 seed has won the Super Bowl 26 times out of 49 Super Bowls played — a whopping 53.1%. The No. 2 seed has won the Super Bowl 10 times (20.4%) — none since the 14-team playoff began.
Second seeds have never even been to the Super Bowl in the 14-team format, as teams seeded second don’t have a bye anymore like in the previous 12-team format. This makes a huge difference toward having home-field advantage as the No. 1 seed in the 14-team format.
Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, to 2019 (the final year of the 12-team playoff) 50% of the No. 1 seeds have reached the Super Bowl — the same percentage as this current format. This showcases it’s still beneficial to secure the No. 1 seed and the bye, even if the new structure favors the No. 1 seed even more.
There is still a distinct advantage toward having the No. 1 seed in this format. The Lions and Chiefs are in very good shape to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, and there’s a strong chance one of them will be playing in New Orleans.
