And it might not be what you expect …
I can’t believe I’m going to write this, but the common thread between all eight of the remaining teams in these NFL playoffs centers around … the running game. Yes, the divisional-round qualifiers have showcased stellar quarterback play. Obviously. However, digging deeper, their ground-game efficiency has also been integral this season.
Over the past decade, the NFL finally welcomed analytics, and they’ve recommended throwing, throwing, and more throwing. And it’s smart. In simple terms, it can be thought about this way — quarterbacks average anywhere between 5 and 9 yards per attempt, while running backs average between 3 to 6 yards per rush.
In the 2024 regular season, 19 qualifying running backs averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per rush, while there were only four qualifying quarterbacks with a yards-per-attempt average below 6.0.
However, in this renaissance season for the NFL running back, headlined by Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, the most accomplished teams have placed a high priority on moving the football on the ground and have become effective in doing so.
Check how these clubs collectively performed running the football during the regular season. It’s staggering. (EPA and Success Rate shown are in non-garbage time, when win probability was between 10% and 90%).
| EPA per rush (rank) | Success Rate | Rushing TDs | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
0.075 (1st) |
47.3% (2nd) |
32 (1st) |
|
|
0.066 (2nd) |
42.9% (10th) |
29 (T2nd) |
|
|
0.047 (3rd) |
46.9 (3rd) |
21 (6th) |
|
|
0.025 (5th) |
46.1% (6th) |
25 (4th) |
|
|
0.022 (6th) |
46.5% (4th) |
29 (T2nd) |
|
|
-0.043 (11th) |
46.3% (5th) |
15 (T15th) |
|
|
-0.046 (12th) |
46.0% (7th) |
15 (T15th) |
|
|
-.105 (19th) |
33.1% (32nd) |
15 (T15th) |
Incredible, right? Almost a clean sweep at the top of EPA per rush, with the first three, five of the first six, and seven of the top 12 clubs represented here.
And in Success Rate — which is defined as a play that gains at least 40% of the yards needed on first down, at least 60% of the yards needed on second down or 100% of the yards needed on third and fourth down — seven of the top 10 clubs will be playing in the divisional round.
Now, yes, the Texans stick out like a sore thumb, and their shoddy offensive line is mostly to fault, as would be the case for any lower-level run game. Individually though, Joe Mixon went over 1,100 yards with 12 scores and forced a respectable 37 missed tackles on 245 carries during the regular season. It’s not as if Houston lacks a capable presence in its run game.
Also, let’s not quickly forget — Houston ran for 168 yards at 4.9 yards per pop in the opening-round blowout of the Chargers.
And then there’s the ever-present threat of the quarterbacks as ball-carriers themselves.
Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels were first and second in quarterback rushing yards (915 and 891) and missed tackles forced (45 and 40) during the regular season. Jalen Hurts (61), Daniels (55), Josh Allen (51), and Jackson (46) were the top four quarterbacks in first downs on running plays.
Patrick Mahomes averaged over 5.0 yards per carry for the sixth-consecutive season, and his 2.14 yards after contact per rush average was the highest in his NFL career.
Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, and C.J. Stroud aren’t known for their scrambling, yet Stroud averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per rush — almost all scrambles. And the Lions and Rams have established themselves as quality, classic run teams.
It’s funny how this has all worked out. In a divisional round with quarterbacks who have combined for seven Super Bowl appearances, four titles, three Super Bowl MVPs, soon-to-be five regular-season MVPs, last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, and this season’s presumed Offensive Rookie of the Year, it’s impossible to ignore the ground game. It has become a vital element for all these clubs headlined by the NFL’s two leading rushers, and the legs of Jackson, Daniels, Allen and Hurts.
Just when we were on the cusp of dismissing running backs for good in the NFL, Barkley, Henry and the rest of these successful ground games have reminded us of the importance of quality rushing attacks.
We all understand passing is the most sensible way to move the football in today’s NFL, but this season has helped the run game not simply survive the analytics revolution but reemphasize its value in the pass-dominated era. These playoffs are a testament to how versatile and effective rushing attacks are valuable complements to high-caliber quarterback play.
