Projecting the full NFL playoff bracket across the next several weeks
The NFL playoffs are here! With all due respect to Christmas, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. And what better way to celebrate than by projecting out the full playoff field through the Super Bowl, making picks on who we think will be facing off in New Orleans come early February, just a month from now.
Full disclosure: before the season I picked the Rams and Bills to meet in the Super Bowl. Both made it to the postseason, so why would I back down now?
Let’s look at what upsets we could find and make picks for every single game of the NFL playoffs, with a nod to against the spread odds as well.
Wild Card Round
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (4) Houston Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Some folks (hello, Jim Nantz) say the Masters are an annual tradition unlike any other, but I would argue it’s actually the Houston Texans landing a home playoff game on Saturday of Wild Card Weekend. This time around the Texans are somewhat of a shocking underdog to Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers, checking in as 2.5-point home dogs. I think it makes some sense when you look at the coaching mismatch here as well as the way the Texans offense has scuffled this season. The Texans finished with 10 wins this season and secured the lowly AFC South, but they also beat exactly one playoff team en route to their division title. Houston scored more than 30 points just twice this season and the last time they did it, against the Cowboys in Week 11, they needed a defensive touchdown to crack the number. The Chargers didn’t dominate a bunch of playoff teams during the regular season either, but they started cooking on offense to close the season, piling up 108 points in their final three weeks. Harbaugh just wins and he also wins big in single-game postseason situations. I like the Chargers to win this game against a Houston team that took a step back this year.
Projected score: Chargers 24, Texans 21
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Nothing like a divisional rubber match on a Saturday night to help kickstart the first day of the NFL postseason. Unfortunately the books aren’t as excited about the idea of the Steelers keeping this one close: Pittsburgh is a 9.5-point underdog to the Ravens, a monster number given how many close games these two teams have played over the years. It makes sense though, with the Steelers limping to the finish line on a four-game losing streak and the Ravens surging to a divisional title and the No. 3 seed. The Steelers did play some tough teams down the stretch and they’re well coached with Mike Tomlin, but the Russell Wilson move is looking a little concerning after his play over the last month. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we got some kind of heavy Justin Fields package here, especially with the Ravens increasingly more difficult to pass on. If Baltimore gets an early lead, the Steelers could get blown out, but in the interest of respecting the rivalry I’ve got the Steelers managing to cover but not advancing.
Projected score: Ravens 28, Steelers 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Broncos are one of the surprise stories of the season, with Sean Payton engineering a playoff berth in a difficult division while starting a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. Unfortunately their reward is a truck stick in the Bills, who have the likely MVP under center with a full week to rest up and get ready, plus a dominant run game and a defense that will give Nix fits in a tough home environment. The Broncos defense will have to be EXCEPTIONAL against Josh Allen and this offense and I’m just not so sure that’s going to be the case. Prior to the shutout of the Chiefs backups in the final week of the season, Denver had ceded some fairly gaudy offensive numbers to opposing offenses. The Bills don’t have a true alpha receiver they rely on either, so Patrick Surtain can be nullified in a sense. If Buffalo can put Nix in a negative game script, this one could get ugly and I think it does.
Projected score: Bills 31, Broncos 17
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Tough, tough matchup for Jordan Love and Co. This isn’t squaring off against the Cowboys in a fairly friendly environment like last year. Philly is well-rested after sitting starters but you can also make the case Jalen Hurts is a little TOO fresh. The Packers just lost Christian Watson for the rest of the playoffs (and possibly the start of next year) with a torn ACL, which limits their explosiveness down the field. The Eagles defense was stout throughout 2024, giving up 300 total yards or more just three times following their Week 5 bye. The Packers will have to run well and Love will have to be at his absolute best in order to win this game, with the Packers defense somehow finding a way to neutralize Saquon Barkley and this lethal run game. Love doesn’t enter this game nearly as hot as he did the playoffs last year, but he still hasn’t thrown a pick since before Thanksgiving and I tend to trust that he could show up and shred a secondary in the postseason, mostly because I’ve seen it happen before. I’m going out on a limb and taking the upset and await the calls from Philly radio to point out that I’m a huge Eagles hater. This should be a really fun game.
Projected score: Packers 24, Eagles 21
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
Another rookie quarterback making a playoff debut in a tough spot, with Jayden Daniels stepping into the limelight in Tampa against a scorching hot Buccaneers team that’s been cooking in the run and pass game the last two weeks. The Commanders won all of their final three games to close the season, but needed some serious heroics from Daniels and Marcus Mariota to pull off each game after giving up more than 330 yards in all three contests. Baker Mayfield’s been dealing the last month or so, averaging close to 300 yards per game with 16 touchdowns (and five interceptions) in his last five games. Marshon Lattimore being on the field against Mike Evans makes this a FUN FUN FUN throwback to their NFC South battles, when it felt like one of them was going to get ejected almost every single time. I trust Baker at home to get the job done, particularly with a rookie quarterback making his debut. No knock on Daniels, I just think he’ll have to find some serious late-game magic again if Washington wants to advance, especially if Todd Bowles defense comes to play.
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Commanders 21
Monday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
The Vikings are getting hosed by winning 14 games and having to go on the road … but what about the Rams? Win your division and you get to host a 14-win team? How is that fair?? L.A. is a slight dog here (+1.5) and I get it given the records, but I’m inclined to back Sean McVay against a former protege in Kevin O’Connell. McVay’s had good success against his former assistant coaches and was able to give all of his key starters a week off. Blake Corum’s injury is a dagger for a good young player, but it also emphasized McVay’s concerns with trotting his starters out in a relatively meaningless game (L.A. nearly won with backups and the Packers/Commanders seeding was up in the air until the last minute anyway). The Vikings blitz-heavy defense is tough to deal with but Matthew Stafford had one of his best games of the season against Minnesota, completing 75 percent of his passes and throwing four touchdowns in the Rams late-October home win. Against the blitz specifically he was 9 of 12 with a +0.51 EPA per dropback. This is a good setup for the Rams, as good as it can be against a 14-win team.
Projected score: Rams 31, Vikings 28
Divisional round
(7) Green Bay Packers at (1) Detroit Lions
TBD
Some divisional flavor litters the Divisional Round with a potential shootout looming between the Packers and the Lions. Jordan Love will be able to wing the ball around here, although the Lions defense should be healthier with the bye, not to mention additional time to scheme for whatever potential matchups they think they’ll see. Detroit is going to keep its foot on the gas offensively and I would be surprised if the Packers didn’t keep up a bit as well, even without Watson in tow for the Packers. There are just SO many weapons on both of these offenses we could ultimately get a bajillion points scored in this one. Give me the Lions in a fun, fun game.
Projected score: Lions 41, Packers 35
(6) Los Angeles Chargers at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
TBD
Andy Reid, off the bye! Andy Reid, off the bye! Tough scene for Jim Harbaugh who has a great history of pulling off upsets in the playoffs but draws an impossible matchup here with a well-rested Chiefs team and Reid given tons of time to plan for this game. The Chiefs have been incredible in the playoffs the last five years and rarely lose, much less lose at home. The Chargers are well positioned to be a thorn in everyone’s side for many years to come. The Chargers played the Chiefs close in both their regular season matchups and, honestly, I wanted to pick the upset here for Los Angeles but the rest/prep time for KC plus the Chargers having to go on the road twice in the postseason leans me towards picking the Chiefs in a very close game. Also, you know, Patrick Mahomes.
Predicted score: Chiefs 24, Chargers 21
(4) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TBD
We’ve seen this matchup before! In 2021 when they won the Super Bowl the Stafford-led Rams had to travel to Tampa and take on the Buccaneers, although Tampa had Tom Brady at the time. Baker is playing great football now, but the Rams started to cook near the end of the season and stay hot in this one, taking down Tampa and moving onto the NFC title game. The Bucs weakness on the back end of their defense sets up too well for Stafford to wing the ball around and while the Tampa atmosphere is great, I’m not sure this is the homefield advantage that puts the Rams in the worst possible spot.
Projected score: Rams 31, Buccaneers 28
(3) Baltimore Ravens at (2) Buffalo Bills
TBD
Epic, epic matchup between the top two MVP candidates if this comes to fruition. (Also, man, do the Chiefs get a sweet setup with that No. 1 seed, getting to dodge at least one of the Bills and Ravens.) I’ve got Buffalo narrowly winning this game, even though the Ravens handled the Bills during the regular season. Yeah, it’s concerning that the Buffalo run defense can be gashed when Derrick Henry is coming to town, but I trust Sean McDermott to scheme stuff up against his old buddy John Harbaugh and limit the Ravens ability to run the football. Lamar Jackson is incredible, but if you can make him one dimensional in a playoff game, it becomes highly problematic. Josh Allen knows the stakes here and will elevate his game against top competition. The environment will be ELECTRIC. This feels like a walk-off field goal situation.
Projected Score: Bills 28, Ravens 27
Conference championships
(2) Buffalo Bills at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
TBD
Epic, epic matchup between these two. Hello, friends, and whatnot. This would be a very, very fun game, no doubt about it. And there’s not really much I have to say about it to sell you on it. Mahomes vs. Allen, one more time into the void. Oh bleep, here we go again, etc. The Bills have been so, so, so close to getting the Chiefs in the playoffs before and while they’d love the chance to take on the Chargers at home, I think Allen relishes the idea of going to Kansas City and playing for a shot at the Super Bowl. He gets it here, he plays incredible football and while Mahomes and Co. keep it close, the Bills don’t leave 13 seconds on the clock this time around.
Projected score: Bills 24, Chiefs 21
(4) Los Angeles Rams at (1) Detroit Lions
TBD
Well, well, well. Look who’s back in Motown for another heated battle between these two teams turned rivals thanks to a quarterback swap of Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff that became the rare win-win trade (the Rams won a title and Detroit launched their Super Bowl window with some excellent draft picks courtesy of the Rams). This was an incredible matchup last year in the playoffs — not to mention a fun one earlier in the year — and I expect nothing less in this championship game scenario. With both defenses a little wounded and both offenses explosive, I’d expect a shootout of sorts, although both teams are keen on running the football. Maybe a little smashmouth early followed by these two teams opening things up as the clock starts to melt away in the second half. I’ll take the Rams in a really, really close game.
Projected score: Rams 27, Lions 24
Super Bowl LIX
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, Feb 9., New Orleans (FOX, fubo)
I earnestly believe it’ll be Rams/Lions in the NFC title game and Buffalo finding their way to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 90’s. And you could sell me on the Lions here instead of the Rams — it would be an incredible matchup of two embattled fanbases and maybe the best possible Super Bowl on the board. But the Rams sneak one out, setting up a matchup between Allen and Stafford that should delight fans of high-level quarterback play and hyper-elite arm talent. This is a sneaky great uniform matchup too, not to mention a good battle between two coaches who were hired at the same time and come from very different backgrounds. I love the Rams and Stafford as much as anyone but it’s just Allen’s time … the only question is will he be raising multiple trophies in a 48 hour span after winning MVP and then getting to hoist the Lombardi for the Bills first-ever Super Bowl win. I say yes, right as I take a fireball shot and leap through a burning table.
Projected score: Bills 35, Rams 31
