Your betting guide for the best picks and plays for the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship
There’s only one game remaining in what has been the longest college football season in history, which started way back on August 24, 2024, when Georgia Tech upset then-No. 10 Florida State 24-21 in Ireland. That Week 0 game set the tone for what would be a season full of surprises.
Now, nearly five months later, (7) Notre Dame and (8) Ohio State face off in the College Football Playoff National Championship in Atlanta. It’s hard to argue both teams don’t deserve to be in this game. Notre Dame had to take out Indiana, Georgia and Penn State to reach this point; Ohio State’s taken down Tennessee, Oregon and Texas.
They’ve proven to be two of the best teams in the country all year, despite each having a “huh!?” loss on their résumé. But only one can take home the national title. A quick look at the spread suggests Ohio State is the heavy favorite to do so, but are the Buckeyes the best bet? Let’s break down the spread, total and a couple of props for Monday night’s clash between two of the biggest programs in college football history.
Spread
One of the biggest factors of the expanded College Football Playoff are injuries. As teams are asked to play more games than ever before, injuries are a likely outcome. It’s a collision sport, after all, and the more physical contact any player suffers, the more likely an injury is to occur. Notre Dame has had far worse injury luck than the Buckeyes in the playoffs. Both teams suffered injuries during the regular season, with Ohio State’s offensive line hit particularly hard and Notre Dame suffering losses all over the roster.
The losses have not ceased for the Irish in the playoffs. Stud defensive tackle Rylie Mills was lost early, and two more offensive linemen went down in the win over Penn State, including left tackle Anthonie Knapp, who took over the starting gig before the season began when projected starter Charles Jagusah went down. Knapp has already been declared out for the title game, but in the irony of ironies, Jagusah may start in his place!
Either way, these injuries are just the latest in a long list for the Irish, which makes this matchup extremely difficult for them. Ohio State might be the most talented team in the country, and outside of the loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes have been outstanding all season long. They’ve also taken their game up a notch in the playoffs. Their defensive line overwhelmed Tennessee, Oregon and Texas in consecutive weeks. While Tennessee’s OL is questionable, both Oregon and Texas have been two of the strongest in the country. As has Notre Dame’s.
But if Notre Dame’s offensive line is patchwork right now, how confident can we be in it to hold up against an Ohio State front that’s been crushing teams?
Furthermore, while the Irish defense has been one of the best in the country all year, and the secondary has barely lost a step since losing stud Benjamin Morrison in mid-October, you can argue they haven’t faced an offense that compares to the Ohio State unit they’ll see in Atlanta.
Finally, the Ohio State defense has faced Tennessee (37.3 ppg in the regular season), Oregon (35.9 ppg) and Texas (33.6) in the first three rounds and held those teams to 52 points total (17.3 ppg). The Irish offense was more prolific than all three (39.8 ppg), but it’s also been a heavily run-oriented unit, and I’m not overly optimistic about how that run game matches up with the Ohio State defense (possibly the best in the country) with a banged up offensive line. Notre Dame has overcome injuries all season long, but if you’re making a bet, it’s hard to put your money on the Irish here based on the info at hand. Pick: Ohio State -8
Total
We know my pick on the spread, but the truth is I’m far more confident in this play on the total. And it’s almost entirely for all the same reasons I like Ohio State to cover! I just don’t know how many points we can realistically expect the Notre Dame offense to score. You get the sense the Irish will have to find points on defense or special teams (something they’ve been outstanding at doing this season) to give themselves a chance.
Still, I don’t know that Ohio State’s offense will automatically be able to light up the Notre Dame defense. Yes, it’s banged up, and this could be the game in which Notre Dame’s defensive injuries finally have a significant negative impact on it. But they’ve been so good and opportunistic all season long that it seems foolish to think they can’t slow down this Ohio State unit.
The Irish aren’t all that dissimilar to the Texas defense, and we saw the Longhorns have plenty of success. Let’s not forget that they essentially removed Jeremiah Smith from the picture, and one of Ohio State’s touchdowns came on defense. If you’re hoping for a high-scoring shootout to finish the year, you’re probably going to be disappointed. Pick: Under 46.5
Props
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard (37.5 yards rushing): Leonard’s legs are a huge part of what Notre Dame does offensively, and they’ll continue to be in this final game. After all, there’s no reason to leave anything in the tank. There is no tomorrow. The problem is, as we’ve gone over, the Notre Dame offensive line is banged up, and this Ohio State defensive front has been going off lately. While the Buckeyes have given up some yards to rushing QBs this season, it’s important to remember in college that sacks are taken out of a QB’s rushing yardage. In their three playoff games, the Ohio State defense has 16 sacks for a loss of 118 yards. Leonard took only 11 sacks in the regular season, but he’s taken 6 in three playoff games. That’s helped keep him under this 37.5 yards total in two of the three games (Indiana and Penn State). Pick: Under
Ohio State TE Gee Scott (17.5 yards receiving): There’s not much science to this one, it’s pretty simple. In the regular season, Gee Scott caught 16 passes for 150 yards. In three playoff games he’s caught 10 passes for 99 yards, and has had at least 30 yards in all three games. He’s being untilized far more in the gameplan now than he was before, and there’s no reason to think it won’t be the case again in this game. Notre Dame’s secondary will be focusing its energy on Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. That should leave some opportunities for Scott, and he probably won’t need more than two receptions to this this. Pick: Over
