SportsLine horse racing handicapper Jody Demling reveals his top Kentucky Derby 2025 longshots to target on Saturday at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET
Journalism is the 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs. He is on a four-race winning streak, drew the No. 8 post, so he is the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. While he will be included in many 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, there could be 2025 Kentucky Derby longshots worth targeting as well. For example, Tiztastic, who is coming off a win in the Louisiana Derby, is the son of 2020 Kentucky Derby runner-up Tiz the Law. The Steve Asmussen-trained horse is a 20-1 longshot on the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds board. Asmussen has never won the Derby, but he has won the other two legs of the Triple Crown series and jockey Joel Rosario won the 2013 Kentucky Derby.
Who wins this year’s Run for the Roses and which 2025 Kentucky Derby longshots should you consider to spice up your exactas, trifectas and superfectas? SportsLine’s horse racing experts are breaking down the Kentucky Derby 2025 from all angles.
Handicapper Jody Demling has hit 11 Derby-Oaks doubles in the last 16 years. He’s also nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and predicted the winner of the Preakness 10 of the last 20 years. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge. You can see Demling’s full projected leaderboard at SportsLine.
Here are three Kentucky Derby longshots to target, according to Demling:
Burnham Square (12-1)
Burnham Square has won three of his last four races, including the Blue Grass Stakes. Trainer Ian Wilkes has not trained a winner of a Triple Crown race, but jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. won both the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks last year. His experience at Churchill Downs could be a crucial factor on Saturday.
The last horse to accomplish the Blue Grass-Derby double was Strike the Gold in 1991, so Burnham Square has a chance to make history. He finished with the most points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby standings, using a sweeping move at the far turn to go from last to first in the Blue Grass Stakes. He also won the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes in February, making him one of the most proven longshots in the field. You can bet Burnham Square at FanDuel Racing now and get a no-sweat first bet up to $500:
Luxor Cafe (15-1)
Luxor Cafe, the son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, has taken a unique path to make it in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. He was born and bred in Kentucky before being sold to Koichi Nishikawa, who then took him to Japan Luxor Cafe has won four of his six career races, including the Fukuryu Stakes in March before shipping back to America to prepare for the Derby.
Luxor Cafe’s stock is rising because he previously beat Admire Daytona head-to-head in Japan and Admire Daytona then went on to win the UAE Derby. Despite only coming to America in late April, Demling says Luxor Cafe “still looks good and could be a surprise.” You can bet on Luxor Cafe at 1/ST BET and get up to $250 in bonus funds:
Publisher (20-1)
Publisher has emerged as a legitimate contender following his strong second-place finish in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. He is a late developing 3-year-old who was sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, and his pedigree suggests strong potential for a race of this distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen is the winningest trainer in North American horse racing and has previously won the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
This is an opportunity for Asmussen to record his first Kentucky Derby victory, as Publisher finished fourth in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes before his career-best performance in Arkansas. He has made steady improvement as his races have increased in distance, indicating that he should be able to handle the Derby’s distance. Publisher is a longshot who should be in the mix down the stretch on Saturday night. You can bet Publisher now at TwinSpires and get up to $400 in bonus bets.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is also high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside” and has revealed his pick to win the 151st Run for the Roses. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard and betting tickets, over at SportsLine.
SportsLine also has Kentucky Derby 2025 picks from long-time horse racing journalist Gene Menez, who gave out last year’s winner Mystik Dan (18-1) as a live longshot. You can also find 2025 Kentucky Derby bets from Michelle Yu, a racing analyst who has already hit winners in multiple prep races this year.
Best Kentucky Derby betting promos
Here are several places to bet on the Kentucky Derby.
