When is the Kentucky Derby 2025? Jody Demling revealed his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs
In the 150-year history of the Kentucky Derby, only 56 morning-line favorites have visited the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs. Meanwhile, the last five Kentucky Derby winners have gone off with odds of 13-1 or longer. Those stats may not bode well for Journalism, the Santa Anita Derby winner and current favorite at 3-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Journalism is on a four-race winning streak and is the only horse in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field with three wins in graded-stakes races. However, there are a dozen 2025 Kentucky Derby horses or more that could be 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders as we hurdle towards the 6:57 p.m. ET post time on Saturday. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman, even though he’s one of the top favorites at 6-1 and just won the Arkansas Derby. The three-year-old son of Tapit gained attention after winning the Arkansas Derby in impressive fashion, rallying from the back of the pack to win by 2.5 lengths. However, he wasn’t as successful in his previous two runs at Churchill Downs, finishing third and fifth respectively.
The expert acknowledges Sandman’s efforts in the Arkansas Derby but is “worried about how he was still swerving down the stretch in his last race.” Demling concludes that this horse “looks too immature to win the Derby.” See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Japanese horses are 0-for-7 at the Kentucky Derby, but the country is inching closer to reaching the winner’s circle by investing heavily in improving the bloodlines of their thoroughbreds. Enter American Pharoah, the only horse in history to win the American grand slam, who opened with a $200,000 stud fee in 2016 and fathered Luxor Cafe in 2022.
Luxor Cafe was foaled in Kentucky, but quickly shipped to Japan and he qualified on the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby with a dominant five-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes. He hasn’t been tested against a large and talented field like this, but he did beat UAE Derby winner and fellow Derby qualifier Admire Daytona twice. Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira won a maiden race at Churchill Downs in 2013 and has said Luxor Cafe should handle the distance with ease. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | Scratched |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | Scratched |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Baeza | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
2025 Kentucky Derby horses, program numbers
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza
