When is the Kentucky Derby 2025? Jody Demling revealed his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs
Only two 2025 Kentucky Derby prep races are longer than 1 1/8 miles, the Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby. Since the 2025 Kentucky Derby distance is 1 1/14 miles, you could reason that those serve as strong tests of whether a horse can hold up. Tiztastic won in Louisiana, while Admire Daytona prevailed in the United Arab Emirates. If you are searching for one of the potential 2025 Kentucky Derby longshots to target on Saturday at Churchill Downs, those two 2025 Kentucky Derby horses have proven success at longer-distance races, but can they win?
Tiztastic is a 20-1 longshot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, while Admire Daytona is 30-1. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, and the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby is the longest race he attempted. The Run for the Roses goes to post at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday from Churchill Downs. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman, even though he’s one of the top favorites at 6-1 and just won the Arkansas Derby. This three-year-old Mark Casse-trained colt and son of former Wood Memorial winner Tapit is coming off an impressive victory in the Arkansas Derby. In that race at Oaklawn Park, Sandman rallied from second-to-last in the field to win by 2.5 lengths.
The expert acknowledges Sandman’s potential and how he rallied late at Oaklawn when the rest of the field broke down. However, Demling also thinks Sandman swerved too much down the stretch and “looks too immature to win the Derby.” See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. The Japan-based horse enters Churchill Downs on a four-race win streak, including three stakes victories. Perhaps the highlight was his Hyacinth Stakes victory in late February in which he crushed eventual UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona. Japan starters are also coming off their best showing at Churchill Downs after both Japanese horses finished in the top five at last year’s Kentucky Derby.
Luxor Cafe is one of three sons of Triple Crown winners in the 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup, as he was sired by 2015 champion American Pharoah. However, Luxor Cafe’s high marks for pedigree go beyond his father since his mother, Mary’s Follies, was also a stakes winner. Meanwhile, Luxor Cafe’s damsire, More Than Ready, was a Grade 1 winner who hit the board at the 2000 Kentucky Derby. There is more to like about Luxor Cafe than to dislike as a longshot for horse racing wagers. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | Scratched |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | Scratched |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Baeza | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
2025 Kentucky Derby horses, program numbers
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza
