After changes to the qualification points system, one of the top contenders for the Run for the Roses needs five more defections just to get into the race.
The final round of major prep races for the 2025 Kentucky Derby is over, but the wait to get into the 20-horse Derby field on May 3 is just beginning.
And no group of people will be on pins and needles more over the next three weeks than the connections of Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza. A $1.2 million purchase two years ago, Baeza is coming off an impressive second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday, losing by less than a length to Journalism, the clear Kentucky Derby favorite.
Baeza’s Santa Anita Derby finish would have earned him a spot in the starting gate in the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in any other year. But this year, Churchill Downs changed the Derby qualification point system, cutting the points earned in any race with five horses or fewer by 25%. The tweaks clearly targeted the prep races at Santa Anita, which has had issues with shrinking field sizes for years.
The biggest victim of the changes is Baeza. Instead of earning 50 points for his runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby, he earned just 37.5 in the five-horse race. Though the difference is just 12.5, it is substantial. With 50 points, Baeza would be sitting at No. 21 on the points list and would need only one defection over the next three weeks to get into the Kentucky Derby, which is virtually a certainty. Instead, he sits at No. 25 and needs five more defections, which is far from certain.
Baeza’s trainer, John Shirreffs, who is best known for training fan favorite and Hall of Fame runner Zenyatta, said on the At the Races with Steve Byk radio show on Tuesday, “All we can do is watch the leaderboard and how it changes over the next week.”
If Baeza were to get into the Kentucky Derby, he would be a major contender. The horse who edged him out in the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism, is the clear Derby favorite. Baeza’s career-high 101 Beyer Speed Figure is second to only Journalism’s career high (108) among the prospective Derby entrants. And Baeza is bred to be a classic winner. His half-brother Mage won the Kentucky Derby two years ago, and another half-brother, Dornoch, won the Belmont and Travers Stakes last year.
Shirreffs said Tuesday that Baeza already has returned to the track in the mornings.
“He came out of the [Santa Anita Derby] good,” he said on the Byk show. “Knock on wood because, as we know, things change quickly in horse racing.”
