The 2025 Kentucky Derby weather is calling for rain much of Saturday, and the team at SportsLine has broken down the top Kentucky Derby horses to back in the mud
With post time approaching at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, the 2025 Kentucky Derby weather forecast is a hot topic of conversation. Churchill Downs weather forecasts are calling for a high probability of rain throughout the afternoon and nearly a 50% chance at post time. Even if it isn’t actively raining when the gates open, the 2025 Kentucky Derby track conditions will be wet and sloppy, potentially impacting which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses have the best chance to win. Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) are the favorites on the morning line in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, but that doesn’t mean they’re the best choices for Kentucky Derby betting, especially given the conditions.
The dirt track conditions thus far on Saturday have been officially listed as sloppy by Churchill Downs, and that’s an unlikely to change in the coming hours, given the current Louisville weather forecast. So what Kentucky Derby horses are mudders? The team at SportsLine has taken a deep dive into the history of the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to see which ones are bred to thrive in sloppy conditions.
You can use their advice to make picks on Kentucky Derby betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET. You can also evaluate the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds to get the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby picks.
Here are four Kentucky Derby horses to target, giving the sloppy Churchill Downs track conditions:
American Promise (30-1)
American Promise hit the board twice but did not win in the first five races of his career, with his best finish being a runner-up in a maiden special weight. He finally broke his maiden on a muddy track in December, beating fellow Derby entrant Publisher at Oaklawn Park. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify also finished eighth on a sloppy Churchill Downs track last September.
He heads into the Derby following one of his best performances, winning the 2025 Virginia Derby over Render Judgement and Omaha Omaha. American Promise is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who is a four-time Kentucky Derby winner, seven-time Preakness Stakes winner and four-time Belmont Stakes winner. You can bet American Promise at FanDuel Racing now and get a no-sweat first bet up to $500:
Publisher (20-1)
Publisher is a unique entry in the field, as he is set to be the 13th maiden to run in the Derby since 1937. The son of 2015 Triple Crown champion American Pharoah has hit the board in five of his seven starts, and two of those came in wet conditions. The first one came in a maiden special weight on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last September, giving him a perspective that not many other horses in the field have.
He added a second-place finish on a muddy track at Oaklawn in December to cap off his maiden special weight career. Publisher improved in each of his graded stakes races, finishing sixth in the Southwest Stakes (G3), fourth in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and second in the Arkansas Derby (G1). You can bet on Publisher at 1/ST BET and get up to $250 in bonus funds:
Neoequos (30-1)
Neoequos made his racing debut on a sloppy track last July, but he lost his rider after getting bumped at the start. He performed much better on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park in January, winning by 3.5 lengths in a gate-to-wire victory. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. told reporters that Neoequos “has been training well” at Churchill Downs since arriving last Saturday.
He will be ridden by jockey Luis Saez after Baeza drew into the race and will be ridden by Flavien Prat, who was previously going to ride Neoequos. The distance is going to be a new challenge for Neoequos, but his connections will not be disappointed by wet conditions. You can bet Neoequos now at TwinSpires and get up to $400 in bonus bets.
Coal Battle (30-1)
Trainer Lonnie Briley recorded his first graded stakes win in his more than three decades of training when Coal Battle broke his maiden last July. That win came on a sloppy track at Evangeline Downs before he lost his next two races. He kickstarted a four-race winning streak with jockey Juan Vargas by picking up a 2.5-length victory on a muddy track at Delta Downs in November.
Coal Battle continued his winning ways with a pair of low stakes victories and capped off the streak by winning the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in February. He is coming off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, but he has proven he can win in muddy conditions.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
SportsLine’s Jody Demling has nailed the Derby-Oaks double 11 times, and he is high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside” and has revealed his pick to win the 151st Run for the Roses. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard and betting tickets, over at SportsLine.
SportsLine also has Kentucky Derby 2025 picks from long-time horse racing journalist Gene Menez, who gave out last year’s winner Mystik Dan (18-1) as a live longshot. You can also find 2025 Kentucky Derby bets from Michelle Yu, a racing analyst who has already hit winners in multiple prep races this year.
Best Kentucky Derby betting promos
Here are several places to bet on the Kentucky Derby.
