SportsLine’s model simulated Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets 10,000 times and revealed its MLB picks for Monday
The New York Mets and Washington Nationals will complete their four-game series in Washington on Monday afternoon. The Nationals rallied from a five-run first-inning deficit to defeat the Mets via a walk-off error, 8-7, on Sunday to improve to 13-15 on the season. The Mets fell to 19-9 overall and will look to split the four-game series with a win on Monday. New York went 11-2 against Washington last season and won the season series in each of the previous four years. But Washington is 2-1 head-to-head over their first series of the season.
First pitch from Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. New York is a -160 favorite on the money line (risk $160 to win $100) in the latest Nationals vs. Mets odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, while Washington is a +134 underdog. The over/under for total runs scored is 9.5 in the latest MLB odds. Before making any Nationals vs. Mets picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 5 of the 2025 MLB season on a 13-6 run on top-rated MLB betting picks (+415). Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Nationals and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Nationals vs. Mets:
- Mets vs. Nationals money line: New York -160, Washington +134 on FanDuel
- Mets vs. Nationals over/under: 9.5 runs
- Mets vs. Nationals run line: Mets -1.5 (+101)
- NYM: The Mets are 3-3 on the run line in their last six games as the favorite
- WAS: The Under is 6-1-1 over the last eight Nationals games
- Mets vs. Nationals picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Mets vs. Nationals streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Mets can cover
New York had a flawless start on Sunday, sending 10 batters to the plate and scoring five runs before Washington batted in the bottom half. Juan Soto went 2-for-3 and reached base safely four times for his second multi-hit contest of the series as he’s showing signs of being the player who earned the highest contract in professional sports history this offseason. Pete Alonso added another hit on Sunday as he has at least one hit in eight of his last nine games. Alonso is batting .333 with a .451 on-base percentage. The Mets have won six of their eight series this season and a loss Monday would lower that percentage.
The Mets are starting right-handed pitcher Griffin Canning, who is coming off allowing one run with five strikeouts over five innings against the Phillies on Tuesday. The 28-year-old has allowed one run in three of his last four starts and has a 3.12 ERA over five starts this season. Canning is the latest example of a veteran pitcher coming off a rough season who is throwing well in New York, as the Mets were able to get the best of multiple journeyman starters last year. Canning had a 5.19 ERA over 32 games (31 starts) with the Angels last year. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Nationals can cover
The Nationals showed their resolve in climbing back from a 5-0 deficit in the first inning on Sunday. Washington used a five-run seventh inning, highlighted by a three-run home run from catcher Riley Adams, in the comeback. James Wood was the No. 1 prospect in baseball in 2024, and he’s showcasing exactly why to begin his first full major-league season. The 22-year-old outfielder leads Washington in home runs (eight), OPS (.904) and extra-base hits (14) as he was the big return from the package that sent Soto to the Padres at the 2022 MLB trade deadline.
The Nationals are starting veteran RHP Trevor Williams. The 33-year-old allowed one run with five strikeouts over five innings against the Orioles on Wednesday after holding the Pirates to one run with five strikeouts over five innings in his previous start with similar efficiency. Williams has allowed three runs or fewer in four of five starts this season. He went 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA in 13 starts last season, including a 0.90 ERA over 10 innings in his final two starts in September after missing more than three months with a right flexor muscle strain. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Mets vs. Nationals picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 9.8 combined runs, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s MLB picks.
So who wins Mets vs. Nationals, and which side is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.
