SportsLine’s proven model has simulated Chicago vs. Philadelphia 10,000 times and released its MLB best bets
The Philadelphia Phillies will battle the Chicago Cubs in the third and final game of their three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball. Chicago won the opener 4-0, but Philadelphia rebounded with a 10-4 triumph on Saturday. The Phillies (14-13), who snapped a five-game losing streak on Saturday, are 5-9 on the road this season. The Cubs (17-11), who have won three of four, are 9-6 on their home field.
First pitch from Wrigley Field in Chicago is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is a –115 favorite on the money line (risk $115 to win $100) in the latest Phillies vs. Cubs odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over-under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is eight. Before making any Phillies vs. Cubs picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 5 of the 2025 MLB season on a 13-6 run on top-rated MLB betting picks (+415). Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns. Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Phillies vs. Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball:
Phillies to win (-115)
Philadelphia has dominated the series over the past couple of years, winning 10 of the past 13 meetings. They are 5-3 at Wrigley Field over the past eight games, outscoring the Cubs 39-28 during that stretch. Helping lead the Phillies offense is right fielder Nick Castellanos is among the Phillies’ leading hitters.
In 27 games, he is batting .283 with seven doubles, three homers, 15 RBI and 12 runs scored. In Saturday’s win over Chicago, he was 2-for-5. He was 1-for-3 with a double in Friday’s loss. He has hit the Cubs well throughout his career. In 52 career games against them, he is hitting .327 with 13 doubles, one triple, 12 homers and 35 RBI. Bet365 Sportsbook and DraftKings have the best price on the Phillies winning at -115.
If you want even more MLB picks, SportsLine’s top MLB expert, Matt Severance, is heating up. Get his best bets for Saturday, all from the expert who is 58-27 on his last 85 MLB picks (+1494).
Over 8 total runs (-105)
The teams have combined for eight or more runs in seven of the past eight meetings. including 14 on Saturday. The Cubs lead MLB with a .267 team batting average and have scored the most runs this season with 171. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is among the Cubs’ top offensive threats. In 28 games this season, he is batting .284 with nine doubles, one triple, five homers and 18 RBI. In the mid-week two-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, he was 6-for-9 with a double, two homers and seven RBI. In six career games against Philadelphia, he has five hits, including two doubles and three RBI.
It also projects five Philadelphia batters have at least a 40% chance for an RBI, including Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm. Seven Chicago players were given at least a 40% chance of knocking in a run – Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Carson Kelly. The model is projecting 9.2 combined runs, as the over hits in over 53% of simulations.
You’ve now seen two best bets for Phillies vs. Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball. Now, get picks for every single game from the model that enters Week 5 of the 2025 MLB season on an 13-6 run on top-rated MLB run-line picks.
Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker over 0.5 walks (-150)
Chicago outfielder Kyle Tucker leads the Cubs with 21 walks on the season. He has drawn at least one walk in four of the past five games, including two in a 7-6 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday. The model is projecting a 59% chance of Tucker drawing a base on balls. DraftKings Sportsbook has this prop at -150.
